YTD - 11-5-1 +5.5 Units
Howdy:> I've been throwing around the idea of posting my own picks in my own thread.. It seems en vouge, but I'd rather just get my thoughts/breakdowns in here. I'm more than happy to give any opinion and do so in other threads - but I think it's time to do it here. Hopefully I can help. Last week was rough, and this week it's time to get to work. I won't be watching any game replays until after I post this, so things could change slightly, although I think I have a good read this week. I love the NFL - it's what I do all year round. Anyway, here we go...
Best Bet:
Minnesota +1 at Buffalo
This game, mathematically, definitly favors Buffalo by the slimmest of margins. They SHOULD be 2-1, but I have little to no faith in Dick Jauron. I think he's a horrible offensive game manager/coach and makes bad decisions. I think last week they became the first team (or first in a LONG time) to have a 150 yd rusher and 300 yd passer and STILL lose. They weren't even in the game against the Jets, and yet, they actually had a reasonable statistical game (again) defensively. Their biggest problem is at QB. I think Losman is still very young. He's not yet a legit NFL starter. Couple that with bad game management and you're going to lose a lot of games.
Minnesota has been solid, steady, and while they don't do anything great - they still keep themselves in ballgames with sound defense and good smart playcalling on O. Minne has been 'good' defensively this year... Good enough to stay in ballgames. Even if they're on the road, I really like their chances. They likely will find a way to win, despite it likely being a VERY close game.
Colts -9 @ NYJ
I don't have a lot to say on this game. Picking Indy defies all logic - as I think this line is too high in some regards and too low in others. It's just hard to bet against Manning. The Jets defense makes plays, but they also let up a LOT of yards. Their D relies on turnovers, basically - and Indy doesn't turn the ball over much. I'm not sold on Indy's running game late in the game, so it's likely they'll have to pass to run out the clock. As far as I'm concerned - that's a good thing. There is no QB better in the regular season for that. The Jets might hang around, but the fact they couldn't run the ball against a Pop Warner team (even with all the Colts nagging injuries) right now, is going to keep the Jets from having a chance. I do like the Jets - they are on their way.... Just not in this game.
Browns -2 1/2 @ Oakland
Oakland is flat out terrible. It makes me ill reading on ESPN.com that their O-line is getting healthy and better. Their line is bottom 5 in the NFL right now and playing like the worst line in the history of the NFL (yes, worse than the Texans). Gallery can't block linebackers. Their Guards get no push. They're horrible. However... Lamont Jordan is a big-play type of back... I can see him having a season best game, because he has no other choice. Their QB, Walter, is even worse than Brooks... If that's possible. While Cleveland has holes all over and becomes EXTREMELY vulnerable when they can't bring a safety into the box to stop the run, I can't see Walter making more than a couple of plays.
On the Cleveland side, they've been solid so far on D (excluding the Cinci game...yeeesh). They are a team that plays with a TON of heart and does not quit. Frye is a scrappy QB. He's young, he makes mistakes - but the guy just BATTLES. RB is a HUGE concern for the Browns and their blistering 60 yards per game is proof. They also don't throw the ball very well, either.. But they have 2 gamebreaker-type players on O (Winslow Jr and Edwards), and an explosive vet in Northcutt. If they can contain the Raiders pass rush (which isn't that hard), you could see a breakout game from one of their playmakers -- They are OVERdue. Overall, this is more of a bet against Oakland than a bet for Cleveland. I hate teams that can't run the ball - but they really play with a lot of heart. That's good enough for me. Actually, I'm strongly considering the alt line of Cle -7 1/2 +215. I need to sleep on it, though.
Chicago -3 over Seattle
The line on this game is too far in favor of Seattle - but with Alexander out, all bets are off. I actually was favoring the Bears long before the line came out. Grossman has matured and is playing with a LOT of confidence. He makes a lot of boner passes, but he has playmakers to throw the ball to. The mystery is the Bears running attack. 80 yards/game is not very good - it's last place good! Seattle's D will likely allow less yards on the ground than that - but who knows. They desperatly need to get their ground game going.
Seattle, on the other hand, probably won't be able to do jack against the Bear's front 7. I dont' even see the Bears creeping down an 8th man much. Seattles O Line is having issues right now. They have 3 studs, but the other 2 (the Guards) are pedestrian. Hasselbeck DOES have great mobility and play making ability, but he also can lose confidence and become ineffective. If the Bears can get him out of rhythm, they will roll. I can see Seattle going 4 wide a LOT and making it a ball game - but eventually, that could be their demise if they start turning the ball over. Chi is GREAT at manufacturing turnovers. My gut says Bears and while it was my best bet on Monday (even before the Alexander news), I can see Seattle battling hard... So I'm a bit less confident... But confident enough that I have the majority of my money on the Bears this week.
Jacksonville -3 +105 @ Washington
Another game where my gut speaks over stats, math and logic... Washington got it going against probably the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NFL. Is it a good thing? Maybe. Their running game has been serviceable until last week - where it went crazy. Portis is a playmaker, definitly. However, NO ONE runs the ball on Jacksonville. The Jags play a VERY straight up front 7 against the run and STILL no one can run on them with any effectiveness or consistency. Also, I think the Jag's (while penalty prone because they are so aggressive) field the best secondary in the NFL. They make mistakes, like all secondarys -- However, they create turnovers and they FLATTEN any receiver that has to go up for a pass or go over the middle. I think their scheme against the pass actually hurts the Skins. Brunell LOVES to throw the ball to the sidelines... The Jags actually scheme for turnovers in their secondary to tempt teams to do that (throw to the sidelines) - then pick the ball off. Nobody generates more turnovers doing this than them. They are much more vulnerable down the field against the Skin's Randle El and Moss - but I'm not so sure Brunell will sling it much down the field (although I think he should).
The Jags offense can run the football solidly. Leftwich has been inconsistent, though. The offensive line definitly is in the top half on the NFL right now and do a great job of protecting him, even if he still insists on rolling out of the pocket on 7 step drops and into a DE or blitzing LB. Byron isn't very mature, still, but when he's on - he can really sling it. I'm not so sure he can throw for lot of yards against the Skins, but he can do what he needs to do. I think the Jag's running game will be the key here. If Washington slows it down (it's almost impossible - without crowding the box - leaving their secondary very vulnerable to the side/speed advantage that the Jag's receivers have), they have a chance, albeit a small one. Jags games, by design, are always very close. I think they can create some defensive offense off of the skins - and that will be the difference.
Chargers -2 1/2 @ Baltimore
I havn't put my bet in yet on this game. I just have a feeling I'm going to get a better price. If not, no biggy. I am strongly considering selling points and taking the Chargers -7 1/2 +215 - but I want to review the Ravens game from last week one more time, first.
San Diego has played PERFECT so far. Marty has been great at keeping Rivers out of the fire and managing the game. I love Marty-ball. You can set your watch to it: 1st down: run. 2nd down: run. 3rd and 6+?: run and let your D sort it out. It's that type of management that kills him in the playoffs, but makes him brilliant in the regular season. I've been listening all week to how the Ravens 'won't allow' LT to run.. Those people could be right, the Ravens have allowed under 40 yds/game on the ground against 3 HORRIBLE running teams. SD is ALL about power running and the only team I can recall to really shut it down was Philly last year - and Philly won that game on a blocked FG attempt and scored a TD late in the 4th quarter.
Baltimore is helped by McNair being EXACTLY what they needed. His mobility isn't what it was, though - and SD has 2 elite pass rushers in Castillo and Merriman. McNair will have to throw the ball away a LOT to survive. Also, McNair doesn't sling it like he used to. He can keep the team in the game - he might even give them a chance to win... But if the Ravens get down early, I think McNair's value drops - because he doesn't throw the ball as well as he used to.
Baltimore, also, has not run the ball very well despite the teams they were playing against. It blows my mind that they don't get Mike Anderson more involved. He's a much better back, IMO, than Jamal Lewis. Lewis' burst is coming back, but it's relative. He always looks slow to me, but somehow can make a play now and again - and rip off a big run. I really don't like Lewis as a back at all, and that O line is not getting better, it's getting worse IMO.
I think what this game is going to come down to is Marty doing something that you'd NEVER expect. He'll show you typical Marty-ball, then have LT throw a bomb. He always has a few tricks that you soon forget, because he drones you to sleep running the ball. Rivers, also, is a damn fine young QB. He can chuck it around if he has to - and he hasn't had to all year - but STILL put up great numbers for a first year starter. Baltimore definitly is a team on the rise - but they havn't beaten anyone yet. SD, outside of Rivers, is battle-tested with their league toughest schedule last year. They can play with any team in the NFL and can beat any team in the NFL... I don't believe Baltimore is talented enough to be that good and I think right now, they will learn a lot about how good they really are. SD is a damn fine team.
One final and KEY note as to why I'm favoring SD in this game (and potentially so heavy), is that the Ravens are dependant on generating turnovers. They can be +3 in the turnover column and STILL almost lose or lose a ball game. Their O just isn't very explosive (despite Mason, IMO, having top 5 hands in the game). That's the thing - Marty teams do NOT turn the ball over much, if at all. He doesn't even give you a chance to generate turnovers. That is a highly underrated thing that seems to be forgotten in all the buzz about how good these 2 defenses are. Baltimore will get rolled if they are -2 in the turnover column - and it's very likely to happen.
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Leans: not sure I'm going to bet them yet
49rs +7 @ KC
Dallas -9 1/2 @ Ten
Miami -3 1/2 @ Hou
StL -5 vs Det
NE +6 @ Cinci
Phi -11 vs GB
Games I'm not touching with a 10 foot clown pole:
Carolina -7 1/2 vs NO (slight lean to Caro - but the line is horrible and the ML is worse)
Atl -7 vs Zona (Zona keeps close in games, Atl needs a big game... bad line, worse ML)
Howdy:> I've been throwing around the idea of posting my own picks in my own thread.. It seems en vouge, but I'd rather just get my thoughts/breakdowns in here. I'm more than happy to give any opinion and do so in other threads - but I think it's time to do it here. Hopefully I can help. Last week was rough, and this week it's time to get to work. I won't be watching any game replays until after I post this, so things could change slightly, although I think I have a good read this week. I love the NFL - it's what I do all year round. Anyway, here we go...
Best Bet:
Minnesota +1 at Buffalo
This game, mathematically, definitly favors Buffalo by the slimmest of margins. They SHOULD be 2-1, but I have little to no faith in Dick Jauron. I think he's a horrible offensive game manager/coach and makes bad decisions. I think last week they became the first team (or first in a LONG time) to have a 150 yd rusher and 300 yd passer and STILL lose. They weren't even in the game against the Jets, and yet, they actually had a reasonable statistical game (again) defensively. Their biggest problem is at QB. I think Losman is still very young. He's not yet a legit NFL starter. Couple that with bad game management and you're going to lose a lot of games.
Minnesota has been solid, steady, and while they don't do anything great - they still keep themselves in ballgames with sound defense and good smart playcalling on O. Minne has been 'good' defensively this year... Good enough to stay in ballgames. Even if they're on the road, I really like their chances. They likely will find a way to win, despite it likely being a VERY close game.
Colts -9 @ NYJ
I don't have a lot to say on this game. Picking Indy defies all logic - as I think this line is too high in some regards and too low in others. It's just hard to bet against Manning. The Jets defense makes plays, but they also let up a LOT of yards. Their D relies on turnovers, basically - and Indy doesn't turn the ball over much. I'm not sold on Indy's running game late in the game, so it's likely they'll have to pass to run out the clock. As far as I'm concerned - that's a good thing. There is no QB better in the regular season for that. The Jets might hang around, but the fact they couldn't run the ball against a Pop Warner team (even with all the Colts nagging injuries) right now, is going to keep the Jets from having a chance. I do like the Jets - they are on their way.... Just not in this game.
Browns -2 1/2 @ Oakland
Oakland is flat out terrible. It makes me ill reading on ESPN.com that their O-line is getting healthy and better. Their line is bottom 5 in the NFL right now and playing like the worst line in the history of the NFL (yes, worse than the Texans). Gallery can't block linebackers. Their Guards get no push. They're horrible. However... Lamont Jordan is a big-play type of back... I can see him having a season best game, because he has no other choice. Their QB, Walter, is even worse than Brooks... If that's possible. While Cleveland has holes all over and becomes EXTREMELY vulnerable when they can't bring a safety into the box to stop the run, I can't see Walter making more than a couple of plays.
On the Cleveland side, they've been solid so far on D (excluding the Cinci game...yeeesh). They are a team that plays with a TON of heart and does not quit. Frye is a scrappy QB. He's young, he makes mistakes - but the guy just BATTLES. RB is a HUGE concern for the Browns and their blistering 60 yards per game is proof. They also don't throw the ball very well, either.. But they have 2 gamebreaker-type players on O (Winslow Jr and Edwards), and an explosive vet in Northcutt. If they can contain the Raiders pass rush (which isn't that hard), you could see a breakout game from one of their playmakers -- They are OVERdue. Overall, this is more of a bet against Oakland than a bet for Cleveland. I hate teams that can't run the ball - but they really play with a lot of heart. That's good enough for me. Actually, I'm strongly considering the alt line of Cle -7 1/2 +215. I need to sleep on it, though.
Chicago -3 over Seattle
The line on this game is too far in favor of Seattle - but with Alexander out, all bets are off. I actually was favoring the Bears long before the line came out. Grossman has matured and is playing with a LOT of confidence. He makes a lot of boner passes, but he has playmakers to throw the ball to. The mystery is the Bears running attack. 80 yards/game is not very good - it's last place good! Seattle's D will likely allow less yards on the ground than that - but who knows. They desperatly need to get their ground game going.
Seattle, on the other hand, probably won't be able to do jack against the Bear's front 7. I dont' even see the Bears creeping down an 8th man much. Seattles O Line is having issues right now. They have 3 studs, but the other 2 (the Guards) are pedestrian. Hasselbeck DOES have great mobility and play making ability, but he also can lose confidence and become ineffective. If the Bears can get him out of rhythm, they will roll. I can see Seattle going 4 wide a LOT and making it a ball game - but eventually, that could be their demise if they start turning the ball over. Chi is GREAT at manufacturing turnovers. My gut says Bears and while it was my best bet on Monday (even before the Alexander news), I can see Seattle battling hard... So I'm a bit less confident... But confident enough that I have the majority of my money on the Bears this week.
Jacksonville -3 +105 @ Washington
Another game where my gut speaks over stats, math and logic... Washington got it going against probably the 2nd or 3rd worst team in the NFL. Is it a good thing? Maybe. Their running game has been serviceable until last week - where it went crazy. Portis is a playmaker, definitly. However, NO ONE runs the ball on Jacksonville. The Jags play a VERY straight up front 7 against the run and STILL no one can run on them with any effectiveness or consistency. Also, I think the Jag's (while penalty prone because they are so aggressive) field the best secondary in the NFL. They make mistakes, like all secondarys -- However, they create turnovers and they FLATTEN any receiver that has to go up for a pass or go over the middle. I think their scheme against the pass actually hurts the Skins. Brunell LOVES to throw the ball to the sidelines... The Jags actually scheme for turnovers in their secondary to tempt teams to do that (throw to the sidelines) - then pick the ball off. Nobody generates more turnovers doing this than them. They are much more vulnerable down the field against the Skin's Randle El and Moss - but I'm not so sure Brunell will sling it much down the field (although I think he should).
The Jags offense can run the football solidly. Leftwich has been inconsistent, though. The offensive line definitly is in the top half on the NFL right now and do a great job of protecting him, even if he still insists on rolling out of the pocket on 7 step drops and into a DE or blitzing LB. Byron isn't very mature, still, but when he's on - he can really sling it. I'm not so sure he can throw for lot of yards against the Skins, but he can do what he needs to do. I think the Jag's running game will be the key here. If Washington slows it down (it's almost impossible - without crowding the box - leaving their secondary very vulnerable to the side/speed advantage that the Jag's receivers have), they have a chance, albeit a small one. Jags games, by design, are always very close. I think they can create some defensive offense off of the skins - and that will be the difference.
Chargers -2 1/2 @ Baltimore
I havn't put my bet in yet on this game. I just have a feeling I'm going to get a better price. If not, no biggy. I am strongly considering selling points and taking the Chargers -7 1/2 +215 - but I want to review the Ravens game from last week one more time, first.
San Diego has played PERFECT so far. Marty has been great at keeping Rivers out of the fire and managing the game. I love Marty-ball. You can set your watch to it: 1st down: run. 2nd down: run. 3rd and 6+?: run and let your D sort it out. It's that type of management that kills him in the playoffs, but makes him brilliant in the regular season. I've been listening all week to how the Ravens 'won't allow' LT to run.. Those people could be right, the Ravens have allowed under 40 yds/game on the ground against 3 HORRIBLE running teams. SD is ALL about power running and the only team I can recall to really shut it down was Philly last year - and Philly won that game on a blocked FG attempt and scored a TD late in the 4th quarter.
Baltimore is helped by McNair being EXACTLY what they needed. His mobility isn't what it was, though - and SD has 2 elite pass rushers in Castillo and Merriman. McNair will have to throw the ball away a LOT to survive. Also, McNair doesn't sling it like he used to. He can keep the team in the game - he might even give them a chance to win... But if the Ravens get down early, I think McNair's value drops - because he doesn't throw the ball as well as he used to.
Baltimore, also, has not run the ball very well despite the teams they were playing against. It blows my mind that they don't get Mike Anderson more involved. He's a much better back, IMO, than Jamal Lewis. Lewis' burst is coming back, but it's relative. He always looks slow to me, but somehow can make a play now and again - and rip off a big run. I really don't like Lewis as a back at all, and that O line is not getting better, it's getting worse IMO.
I think what this game is going to come down to is Marty doing something that you'd NEVER expect. He'll show you typical Marty-ball, then have LT throw a bomb. He always has a few tricks that you soon forget, because he drones you to sleep running the ball. Rivers, also, is a damn fine young QB. He can chuck it around if he has to - and he hasn't had to all year - but STILL put up great numbers for a first year starter. Baltimore definitly is a team on the rise - but they havn't beaten anyone yet. SD, outside of Rivers, is battle-tested with their league toughest schedule last year. They can play with any team in the NFL and can beat any team in the NFL... I don't believe Baltimore is talented enough to be that good and I think right now, they will learn a lot about how good they really are. SD is a damn fine team.
One final and KEY note as to why I'm favoring SD in this game (and potentially so heavy), is that the Ravens are dependant on generating turnovers. They can be +3 in the turnover column and STILL almost lose or lose a ball game. Their O just isn't very explosive (despite Mason, IMO, having top 5 hands in the game). That's the thing - Marty teams do NOT turn the ball over much, if at all. He doesn't even give you a chance to generate turnovers. That is a highly underrated thing that seems to be forgotten in all the buzz about how good these 2 defenses are. Baltimore will get rolled if they are -2 in the turnover column - and it's very likely to happen.
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Leans: not sure I'm going to bet them yet
49rs +7 @ KC
Dallas -9 1/2 @ Ten
Miami -3 1/2 @ Hou
StL -5 vs Det
NE +6 @ Cinci
Phi -11 vs GB
Games I'm not touching with a 10 foot clown pole:
Carolina -7 1/2 vs NO (slight lean to Caro - but the line is horrible and the ML is worse)
Atl -7 vs Zona (Zona keeps close in games, Atl needs a big game... bad line, worse ML)
But then there is that small chance he could be amazing...slim chances though.