Thoughts on this teaser? +325

DoubleR90 · 01-08-14, 09:16 PM

I would swap New Orleans and take the teased down Seattle side....New Orleans' loss by 27 points to Seattle 4 weeks ago proves a blowout is at least possible even though unlikely in the playoffs. And why is San Diego +16 if you got 7 points in a teaser? The line at every book I see is either SD +10 or +10.5 which should make that SD +17 or 17.5 in your teaser. SD +16 is a square number, definitely get that to 17. Otherwise I like everything else

EDIT: I also might swap the Under in the Broncos/Chargers game for the Under in the San Fran/Carolina game depending on the weather at mile high stadium before kick off.

Enifrica · 01-08-14, 10:14 PM

Yep, looking at it again I'm definitely going to take the Seattle side bet rather than the NO one, it seems much safer. For some reason the book I was looking at is offering +9 for that game, so that's why it's at +16 with the teaser... Maybe I should check some other books.

I really don't know how confident I feel about the Patriots/Colts play though... I might almost feel more comfortable doing -2 Patriots and betting on them not taking a loss. I almost want to remove that game and do a safer +260 play on this one

(+6 points, 2.6x PAYOUT)
San Diego Chargers vs. Denver Broncos UNDER 61
San Diego Chargers +15
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots OVER 46½
Seattle Seahawks -2

Enifrica · 01-08-14, 10:16 PM

What makes me weary about the San Fran/Carolina under is San Fran's ability to pull bigger numbers... Sure, Carolina has a pretty impressive defense, but it could definitely ruin an otherwise solid teaser.

Parligod · 01-09-14, 03:14 AM

Safer to tease Seattle down than New Orleans up.

Also unsure about Chargers/Broncos Under 62 - if final score is like 33-30 you lose and this type of high score is very possible.

Also consider teasing Panthers up - they are fantastic at home on defense and this is likely going to be a modest-scoring game. If 49ers take control they may do something like nurture a 3 point lead or something to that effect as this is their style. They are a very controlled offense not interested in blowouts so much as simple game management to ensure a win.

Enifrica · 01-09-14, 10:16 AM

I would OVER 49 the broncos/chargers game, but their last two times playing each other have been UNDER that... If I was patching together a larger teaser I may throw in the panthers game, but the possibility for a 9 point tie is there and I'd rather keep the other options in.

Enifrica · 01-09-14, 10:22 AM

Would anyone feel more comfortable betting on colts +14 1/2 opposed to broncos/chargers under 61?

slacker00 · 01-09-14, 10:34 AM

Yuck on every leg of this teaser. I'd rather get +2350 with IND+7,NO+8,SD+9,IND/NEo52,SD/DENu54.

Starion · 01-09-14, 10:39 AM

Be careful. This round of the playoffs is historically the least competitive. You'll usually get at least 1 or 2 major blowouts that will ruin your teaser.

Enifrica · 01-09-14, 10:40 AM

Just that confident they're already a lock at that spread, or you think it's too unpredictable to tell and you'd rather have the much larger payout if you were betting?

I may go with a smaller teaser with better odd on this first round like Starion suggested, just because it's hard to tell exactly what's going to happen. Any thoughts on the safest teased options here?

Starion · 01-09-14, 11:06 AM

The one leg of your proposed teaser that I could see going seriously wrong is Indianapolis. If Alex Smith can put up 40+ on that defense, I don't see them slowing down Brady.

Enifrica · 01-09-14, 11:22 AM

Yeah, that's a riskier one... I could also ramp up the odds with minus money on something like this, but I can't decide how ballsy I want to be. Only problem is that I don't feel like I need a full 13 points for a good bet, and 10 wouldn't be an option either.

+13, -120
San Diego Chargers +22
Seattle Seahawks +5
Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots OVER 39½
San Francisco 49ers vs. Carolina Panthers UNDER 55

slacker00 · 01-09-14, 11:48 AM

If you are looking for a 5 team teaser, here's one I like better and pays +440:

Sea -2, NE -1, SF +6, NO/SEA o40, SF/CAR u48

DoubleR90 · 01-09-14, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

If you are looking for a 5 team teaser, here's one I like better and pays +440:

Sea -2, NE -1, SF +6, NO/SEA o40, SF/CAR u48

Sf+6 could definitely ruin that for you. No/sea over also not too comfortable with. Id swap that over for ind/ne over any day. We already know what seattles defense is capable of and new orleans defense might show up and keep this game slow paced. Last game went to 41 and new orleans defense was practically non existant in that game

Enifrica · 01-09-14, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by DoubleR90

Sf+6 could definitely ruin that for you. No/sea over also not too comfortable with. Id swap that over for ind/ne over any day. We already know what seattles defense is capable of and new orleans defense might show up and keep this game slow paced. Last game went to 41 and new orleans defense was practically non existant in that game

I agree with you on that. I may put a unit or two in this teaser with the chargers rather than SF at +6 with the NE over as well.

slacker00 · 01-09-14, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by DoubleR90

Sf+6 could definitely ruin that for you. No/sea over also not too comfortable with. Id swap that over for ind/ne over any day. We already know what seattles defense is capable of and new orleans defense might show up and keep this game slow paced. Last game went to 41 and new orleans defense was practically non existant in that game

I see your point. I was just trying to manufacture a 5 teamer that I like better, just offering food for thought. I'm not crazy about teasing totals under any conditions. Same with SF+6, I'd rather cross the 7 and would only use it as a teaser filler if I needed it. Good observations tho.

BigdaddyQH · 01-09-14, 01:42 PM

I would definately tease Seattle down. The Saints defeated a Philly team with a HC who does not know what the word "defense" means. That is NOT the case in Seattle. The Pats-Colts over and the 49ers-Panthers under look pretty solid. As faqr as the Broncos-chargers are concerned, anything can happen in that game. There is no safe play.

Enifrica · 01-09-14, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

I would definately tease Seattle down. The Saints defeated a Philly team with a HC who does not know what the word "defense" means. That is NOT the case in Seattle. The Pats-Colts over and the 49ers-Panthers under look pretty solid. As faqr as the Broncos-chargers are concerned, anything can happen in that game. There is no safe play.

That's probably true... I just don't see the chargers getting blown out by more than two touchdowns. What are your thoughts on teasing the patriots down?