Sharp NFL cappers pay attention to Combine news
Sharp NFL cappers pay attention to Combine news
For fans and bettors that can't ever get enough football it's a lonely time of the year without any games to watch and wager on. But for the savvy handicapper, that doesn't mean the football front is completely barren and void of useful information. Some of the biggest news from the combine in recent days centers on Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree who could be seeing his draft stock slip due to a foot injury.
The NFL Silly Season is upon us. With no games on the schedule, casual fans are being treated to the usual weak porridge of football “news” stories, like Terrell Owens’ status in Dallas, and Plaxico Burress’ status in New York.
Meanwhile, sharps are tuned into the NFL Network for extended Combine coverage at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is where you can actually learn something important about what might happen in 2009.
The biggest piece of news thus far is the discovery of a light stress fracture in the left foot of Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree, the top overall prospect according to Scouts Inc. Crabtree is going to need a screw put in that foot, but he’ll wait until after personal workouts in March to have surgery. That’s how important it is to be seen running the 40-yard dash and performing the other drills in front of NFL scouts.
Crabtree also measured at 6-foot-1, two inches shorter than he was listed at Texas Tech. These two developments could be enough to knock the two-time Biletnikoff Award winner out of the Top 5 of the Draft. Crabtree was projected by Mel Kiper Jr. to go to the Seattle Seahawks with the fourth selection. Now there’s a possibility he’ll fall to the Chicago Bears at No. 18.
Picking a wide receiver early is a risky proposition as it is – just ask the Detroit Lions. They’re wary of taking Crabtree No. 1 after getting burned in years past by wideouts Charles Rodgers and Mike Williams. The Lions might take him anyway – or wait to see if he falls to them at No. 20. Kiper’s first mock draft has Georgia QB Matthew Stafford going to Detroit ahead of USC’s Mark Sanchez, who is projected to go third to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of course, there’s nothing particularly safe about drafting a quarterback in the first round. The NFL career graveyard is filled with names like Andre Ware (another Detroit bust), Todd Marinovich and Akili Smith. But if a team in need is going to have an instant turnaround, it’s going to come at the most important position on the field. The success of last year’s rookie QB crop will prompt general managers to look for the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
Which brings us to the meat and potatoes of value handicapping. Ryan’s Atlanta Falcons and Flacco’s Baltimore Ravens went from the dregs of NFL society to the playoffs in just one year. Could Stafford and Sanchez do the same this year for Detroit and Kansas City? These two teams have the longest Super Bowl betting odds in the league – the Chiefs at 100-1 and the Lions at 150-1. That’s a high reward for a reasonably small bet.
Granted, both the Falcons and Ravens were successful franchises before running into unusual problems at QB, none more unusual than Atlanta’s. Quarterback has been the least of Detroit’s issues. The Chiefs, however, have talent at several positions. If it hadn’t been for the injuries to Trent Green and ex-prospect Brodie Croyle, coach Herm Edwards might still have a job.
This is why so many teams prefer to get their hands on the top linemen in college – and Kansas City sure could use some help on the offensive line. The Miami Dolphins wisely took OT Jake Long with the first overall pick last year; their O-line improved from No. 20 to No. 12 in pass protection efficiency, giving veteran free-agent acquisition Chad Pennington the time he needed to lift the Dolphins into the playoffs after going 1-15 in 2008.
Offensive linemen are considered safe picks because they are almost always ready for the NFL game after three or four years of college – and they’re generally the top “character” players on the field, posting the highest scores on the Wonderlic test. Which makes the story of former Alabama Crimson Tide OT Andre Smith that much stranger.
Smith left Indianapolis early and flew to Atlanta to work out with his trainer – except he didn’t inform anyone from the NFL. Nobody knew Smith’s whereabouts when he didn’t show up at the combine on Friday morning. Kiper had Smith going second overall to the St. Louis Rams; that high draft slot and the millions of dollars that come with it are now in question. How long will it be before GPS chip implants become mandatory league apparel?
For fans and bettors that can't ever get enough football it's a lonely time of the year without any games to watch and wager on. But for the savvy handicapper, that doesn't mean the football front is completely barren and void of useful information. Some of the biggest news from the combine in recent days centers on Texas Tech wide receiver Michael Crabtree who could be seeing his draft stock slip due to a foot injury.
The NFL Silly Season is upon us. With no games on the schedule, casual fans are being treated to the usual weak porridge of football “news” stories, like Terrell Owens’ status in Dallas, and Plaxico Burress’ status in New York.
Meanwhile, sharps are tuned into the NFL Network for extended Combine coverage at Lucas Oil Stadium. This is where you can actually learn something important about what might happen in 2009.
The biggest piece of news thus far is the discovery of a light stress fracture in the left foot of Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree, the top overall prospect according to Scouts Inc. Crabtree is going to need a screw put in that foot, but he’ll wait until after personal workouts in March to have surgery. That’s how important it is to be seen running the 40-yard dash and performing the other drills in front of NFL scouts.
Crabtree also measured at 6-foot-1, two inches shorter than he was listed at Texas Tech. These two developments could be enough to knock the two-time Biletnikoff Award winner out of the Top 5 of the Draft. Crabtree was projected by Mel Kiper Jr. to go to the Seattle Seahawks with the fourth selection. Now there’s a possibility he’ll fall to the Chicago Bears at No. 18.
Picking a wide receiver early is a risky proposition as it is – just ask the Detroit Lions. They’re wary of taking Crabtree No. 1 after getting burned in years past by wideouts Charles Rodgers and Mike Williams. The Lions might take him anyway – or wait to see if he falls to them at No. 20. Kiper’s first mock draft has Georgia QB Matthew Stafford going to Detroit ahead of USC’s Mark Sanchez, who is projected to go third to the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of course, there’s nothing particularly safe about drafting a quarterback in the first round. The NFL career graveyard is filled with names like Andre Ware (another Detroit bust), Todd Marinovich and Akili Smith. But if a team in need is going to have an instant turnaround, it’s going to come at the most important position on the field. The success of last year’s rookie QB crop will prompt general managers to look for the next Matt Ryan or Joe Flacco.
Which brings us to the meat and potatoes of value handicapping. Ryan’s Atlanta Falcons and Flacco’s Baltimore Ravens went from the dregs of NFL society to the playoffs in just one year. Could Stafford and Sanchez do the same this year for Detroit and Kansas City? These two teams have the longest Super Bowl betting odds in the league – the Chiefs at 100-1 and the Lions at 150-1. That’s a high reward for a reasonably small bet.
Granted, both the Falcons and Ravens were successful franchises before running into unusual problems at QB, none more unusual than Atlanta’s. Quarterback has been the least of Detroit’s issues. The Chiefs, however, have talent at several positions. If it hadn’t been for the injuries to Trent Green and ex-prospect Brodie Croyle, coach Herm Edwards might still have a job.
This is why so many teams prefer to get their hands on the top linemen in college – and Kansas City sure could use some help on the offensive line. The Miami Dolphins wisely took OT Jake Long with the first overall pick last year; their O-line improved from No. 20 to No. 12 in pass protection efficiency, giving veteran free-agent acquisition Chad Pennington the time he needed to lift the Dolphins into the playoffs after going 1-15 in 2008.
Offensive linemen are considered safe picks because they are almost always ready for the NFL game after three or four years of college – and they’re generally the top “character” players on the field, posting the highest scores on the Wonderlic test. Which makes the story of former Alabama Crimson Tide OT Andre Smith that much stranger.
Smith left Indianapolis early and flew to Atlanta to work out with his trainer – except he didn’t inform anyone from the NFL. Nobody knew Smith’s whereabouts when he didn’t show up at the combine on Friday morning. Kiper had Smith going second overall to the St. Louis Rams; that high draft slot and the millions of dollars that come with it are now in question. How long will it be before GPS chip implants become mandatory league apparel?