Anyone had luck with line arbitrage?

thetrinity · 11-18-13, 05:41 PM

panthers ml

44 Mag · 11-18-13, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by Pivotpoint

I'm not a fan of hedging. But I'm always interested in line arbitrage or what is called middling.

Very rare that one has a chance to middle on a key number at plus $.

I have the last leg of a 8 team 6 1/2 point teaser with the Pats +9.

Normally, I'd let it ride, but this opportunity doesn't happen often. I can sell points right now and take Panthers - 6 1/2 +155. The hedge could ensure a profit and give me a shot of winning both sides if the Panthers could win by 7 or 8.

I don't see this as likely, but intriqued by the possibility. Action on Panthers moving to -3 has me concerned. Thoughts?

You have the Pat's +9 ??? of course you stay with it. Why second guess yourself, you made the selection, stick with it. Don't let us influence your decision, ever !!!!!

Pivotpoint · 11-18-13, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

You have the Pat's +9 ??? of course you stay with it. Why second guess yourself, you made the selection, stick with it. Don't let us influence your decision, ever !!!!!

Yeah, I keep telling myself that. Can't pull the trigger, yet.

If this game is tight and Panthers win, tough to see over 3 to 4 pts.

As mentioned, the chance the game lands on 7 and cashing everything is tempting. No real risk and I can lock in a good profit to boot.

Can't sell points on live betting, but I might get some nice shots if Pats could jump out and score first. Taking Panthers + anything over 4 1/2. That would be a huge spread to try and land between (Panthers + 4 1/2 and Pats + 9)

Leaning sitting tight and watching live betting.

44 Mag · 11-18-13, 06:50 PM

Sit tight brother, you will win. Have some faith.

ShogunRua · 11-18-13, 07:04 PM

hedge. Crazy things can happen. you want to ensure a profit here

slacker00 · 11-19-13, 07:59 AM

What you are talking about isn't arbitrage. Arbitrage is when you see something like -110 on one side and +111 on the exact opposite side at the same time, so you can bet both sides and make a guaranteed risk-free profit. I haven't seen a true arbitrage in years, but when online sports betting was first getting started, I'd see them all the time. The best one I ever did was an NFL game getting +7 1/2 +112 on one side and -7 -110 on another side, I know it's hard to believe but it really happened, not only that but it landed on the 7 and I nearly doubled my bankroll at the time. Now days, true arbitrage opportunities don't exist, unless I'm missing something.

What you are talking about is liquidating a bet, at best maybe shooting at a middle. Not great strategy unless something about the game has made you think the original bet is bad and now you like the other side. Basically, liquidating a bet is giving away value because you are betting against yourself and paying juice both ways to do it.

Noleafclover · 11-19-13, 08:14 AM

Arbitrage still happens. There's forum posts about it all the time. It's rare, and I'd imagine gets you banned at books, but it happens.

Pivotpoint · 11-19-13, 11:44 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

What you are talking about isn't arbitrage. Arbitrage is when you see something like -110 on one side and +111 on the exact opposite side at the same time, so you can bet both sides and make a guaranteed risk-free profit. I haven't seen a true arbitrage in years, but when online sports betting was first getting started, I'd see them all the time. The best one I ever did was an NFL game getting +7 1/2 +112 on one side and -7 -110 on another side, I know it's hard to believe but it really happened, not only that but it landed on the 7 and I nearly doubled my bankroll at the time. Now days, true arbitrage opportunities don't exist, unless I'm missing something.

What you are talking about is liquidating a bet, at best maybe shooting at a middle. Not great strategy unless something about the game has made you think the original bet is bad and now you like the other side. Basically, liquidating a bet is giving away value because you are betting against yourself and paying juice both ways to do it.

Don't agree, but we could both argue the little details.

Arbitrage is taking advantage of price difference between two or more markets.

(Pats + 9 and Panthers- 6 1/2)

Yes, it isn't arbitrage in it's purest form, when a purchase and sale occurs at the same time, but many similarities.

I had purchased a position of Pats + 9. The premium was reduced by combining games (parlay). Events that transpired allowed me the opportunity to sell Panthers - 6 1/2 , obviously at + $.

Arbitrage in principal is risk free and either way I could lock in a profit. As mentioned, I was less interested in hedging and more intriqued by the chance Panthers could win by 7. Yes, Juice is always present or hidden and factored into every transaction.

Bottom line- I just couldn't pull the trigger on the hedge. When the Panthers jumped out to 10-0, I was cursing a little under my breath. Cam made some big plays that extended drives and turned into points. I had live betting up on my laptop and never saw Pats above + 7 1/2 . That was only for a second and was mostly bouncing between +3 1/2 and + 6 1/2.

When the Panthers took the 7 point lead , I cursed a little again, because a middle started to look likely.

I'm damn glad I sat tight. Stung them pretty good last night and if I didn't have that teaser, I would have taken Pats +3. It was a good swing in my acct. That was a real bad break for Pat backers on the picked up flag on the last play. Gronk gets mugged in endzone and no penalty? So as long as you interecept you can grab and hold receivers in the endzone and no call. That was an outrage to Pats that refs gave no explanation and ran to showers.