Loungee's Official NFL Plays 2013 - Money Needs to Be Made

loungee · 11-15-13, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by loungee

This will be my first year posting my NFL plays but it is not my first year capping, as I have been an avid gambler for 12+ years. Unfortunately I was unable to post anything for the first 10 weeks for personal reasons but jumping in now as there is always time to make some money. NFL is what I am best at but I also do NBA and CFB. Best of luck to anyone who decides to tail me.. or fade me.

ATS Record: 0-0-0
O/U Record: 0-0-0
Total: 0-0-0

Week 11

San Diego -1.5 (2U)
This is essentially San Diego's season. Lose, and they're have very little shot, if any, of making the playoffs. They played DEN tough recently, being the first team to keep them under 30 points, as their defense is much better than advertised. Their away ATS record is nothing to shake a stick at (2-2-1) but neither is Miami's home ATS record (2-2). I like San Diego in this spot for multiple reasons: 1.) they have the better QB who has better weapons; 2.) As stated earlier, this is essentially a must-win for SD as they are currently looking up at NYJ, CLE, BAL and yes, these Dolphins 3.) Miami is in disarray, put together by throwing money at it and not chemistry and all in all, just an ugly team. The fact this team started 3-0 is baffling to me. 4.) Finally, after a loss, SD is 3-1 ATS (lone loss coming against DEN last week) while MIA is 1-3. The whole MIA organization is reeling, distractions left and right, and I believe enough if Rivers, having one of his best seasons yet, to go into MIA and win by a touchdown.

Cleveland +6 (1U)
These are not the Browns of the last 20 years of mediocrity and awfulness. Are they a Super Bowl contender? Of course not. But they don't have to be in order to make us money. Yes, they are on the road. Yes, it is a divisional game. No, I am not overreacting to CIN recent struggles. Call it stupidity or gut call, but I like CLE here. Their defense has stepped up this year, ranking top 10 in scoring, top 5 in total defense, being 6th in rushing yards per game and 10th in passing yards per game. Dalton has come back down to earth. T I do expect Haden to be able to limit the big plays of Green as the Browns offense, as long as Weeden isn't behind center, continue to look like a halfway decent NFL offense. And lastly, CIN D is ranked high across the board but I believe they were dealt their final blow by losing Atkins for the season, adding him to other notable defensive injuries such as Maualuga, Hall and Mays.

OAK +7 (1U)
I'm not gonna waste everyones time with a long, huge writeup on this game. I just have to ask one question: Who the hell are the Texans to be favored over anyone by a touchdown? This is not last year's Texans, winning in almost any way possible. I do realize Keenum has stepped in and done a wonderful job (I used him in a nice spot start for Fantasy last week) but he still doesn't deserve to be favored by a touchdown to anyone. What happened last week when the craptastic home Giants were favored by a touchdown over these Raiders? They covered. I expect the same in this game as both teams are just as bad as the other.

I have one or two more games I will add at a later time. Best of luck.

NE +2.5 (4U)
Here are 5 reasons why I like the Pats not only +2.5 but SU. 1.) Bill Belichick is 15-5 on Monday Night Football SU, which bodes well. 2.) The game following a Pats bye, they are 10-2 under Belichick. 3.) Cam Newton isn't ready for this, plain and simple. When has he ever been a home favor over the likes of an elite QB such as Brees, Brady, Manning, etc.? Never, that I can think of. He just recently made it over .500 for the first time in his career. So he's going to take on the double-headed monster of Brady/Belichick on MNF? No thanks. 4.) NE is 6-0 ATS as underdogs the past 4 years, including this year. When B/B feel disrespected as an underdog, they respond. 5.) I believe in CAR defense, finally but there isn't much to love about their offense. And what Belichick does best is take away your best player throughout, especially after having an extra week to prepare. That is Steve Smith.. well best player not named Cam Newton. Doesn't leave a lot of outstanding weapons on the roster. Ginn Jr.? LaFell? DWill? Human Bowling Ball Tolbert? Nah. CAR was able to take advantage of SF last week as their best weapon, Vernon Davis, went out. Stop Gore and they were set. 10 points won't cut it against NE, not with a fully healthy Gronk, Amendola, Vereen on top of Dobson, Ridley, Edelmen. This is a great spot for NE.

Best of luck.

loungee · 11-16-13, 01:34 AM

OAK/HOU O41.5 (2U)
I'm getting about 3.5 points from my system as I have this game total set at 45 so given the value, I like this for 2 units. HOU is 6-3 in O/U, and are 2-0 in their last 2 games for the over, when Keenum took over the starting job. Coincidence? I don't think so. Case is willing to chuck it down field, take chances and, oh yeah, use his 6'3" future hall of fame WR Andre Johnson, something Mr. Game Manager Matt Schaub rarely ever did. Secondly, when the game total is set between 41-44, HOU has gone over 6 out of 7 times as well as 4-0 O/U at home. Lastly, as far as HOU goes, their last two O/U totals were set at 42.5 and 41.5 respectively and they went over both of those by an average of 9 points. On the OAK side, things don't look so cut and dry. They are 3-6 on O/U for the year as well as 2-2 on the road. But like HOU, they have hit the over on their last two games by an average total of 13.25. Of course, that is a bit skewed because of the giant blowout loss to PHI but points are points and I expect OAK's 21st ranked scoring defense to give up plenty of points to a somewhat resurgent HOU offense while holding their own using a mobile QB.

KC +8.5 (2U)
I wish i grabbed this at my book when it was initially released at freakin' +10!! DEN is without a doubt the best offense in the league. And everyone knows KC is the best defense in the league. I'm not going to go over things everyone already knows. Here's something most wouldn't know: Andy Reid coached teams are 8-4 ATS following a bye (this includes two wins following playoff byes) since 2003 and an amazing 11-1 SU following a bye since 2003. I'd even be willing to take out the only SU loss last year considering the complete disaster that team was. That's mighty impressive. It tells me he uses that extra week to fully and throughly prepare for his upcoming opponent and does so well. As we know, Manning is pretty banged up and the last thing a immobile QB wants to see when banged up, is the best defense in the league across the board. KC will make Manning feel uncomfortable all day as they have the pass rush to do so and the DB's to play man coverage well. Do I think KC wins SU? I won't go that far but it wouldn't surprise me. I see this coming down to a FG late.

AZ/JAC U41.5 (1U)
This is a matchup of two horrible offenses and one good defense. Who wins? Well I'm hoping us on the under. AZ quietly has put together a top 10 scoring defense, top 3 rushing yards allowed per game defense paired with the number 20th ranked passing yards per game defense. I guess it's a good thing their playing JAC, one of the worst offenses in the league, if not one of the worst teams in history. They average a horrible 12.8 ppg. That's amazingly horrible. And it's not like AZ has a high powered offense, ranking 22nd with 22.8 ppg. I could actually see this game ending as a 17-3 game, 20-6 type game with a lot of FG's and maybe one or two Fitzgerald TD's, given JAC vulnerable passing defense.

More than likely the last of my plays for the weekend unless something peaks my interest. In total, there are five ATS plays for a total of 10 units and two O/U plays for 3 units

loungee · 11-16-13, 03:02 PM

With the news of Pryor out, I will be making the OAK +7 (1U) a no play as I don't trust Matt McGloin. BOL

ksnooksk · 11-17-13, 01:21 AM

I remember you from a few years ago. BOL

loungee · 11-17-13, 12:15 PM

WSH +4.5 (2U) LOSS
I don't love the Redskins this year. I've been down about them pretty much all year given their inconsistency. However, I like this spot for them not only because the Eagles aren't good at home, 0-4 actually, but because I believe the 2nd and 3rd ranked rushing offenses will run a ton, limiting points and slowing the game down. I actually believe this will come down to a FG. BOL

loungee · 11-17-13, 12:16 PM

Thank you. Best of luck to you. You on any plays today?

loungee · 11-17-13, 07:02 PM

SD -1.5 (2U) -LOSS
CLE +6 (1U) - LOSS
OAK +7 (1U) - No play
NE +2.5 (4U) -Pending
OAK/HOU O41.5 (2U) - WIN
KC +8.5 (2U) - Pending
AZ/JAC U41.5 (1U) - WIN
WSH +4.5 (2U) - LOSS

loungee · 11-18-13, 11:38 PM

Originally posted by loungee

SD -1.5 (2U) -LOSS
CLE +6 (1U) - LOSS
OAK +7 (1U) - No play
NE +2.5 (4U) -Pending
OAK/HOU O41.5 (2U) - WIN
KC +8.5 (2U) - Pending
AZ/JAC U41.5 (1U) - WIN
WSH +4.5 (2U) - LOSS

Rough, rough week. Not entirely sure how that wasn't pass interference on CAR on the last play of the game. The subsequent explanation that Gronk couldn't catch it.. well it he trying to come back and get it and was mauled. Unbelievable. Back to the drawing board next week.

ATS Record: 0-5-0 (-11.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-0-0 (+3.00 units)
Total: 2-5-0 (-8.00 units)

loungee · 11-21-13, 04:51 PM

ATS Record: 0-5-0 (-11.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-0-0 (+3.00 units)
Total: 2-5-0 (-8.00 units)

What a brutal first weekend back but tonight starts a winning weekend. As they say, you can't win money to don't bet. Or maybe that was my bookie. Who knows. Best of luck tonight

ATL +10 -120 (1U)
I bought the half bought for obvious reasons. I love the "home divisional dog" angle here, as it has been hitting remarkably nicely lately. It has gone 5-2-1 since week 8 and although ATL has been struggling mightly, the wheels have fallen off, I think their able to atleast keep this within 2 scores at home, fight for their life and try and play spolier against NO ahead of their big matchup, which is another reason why I like ATL. NO is not looking to come into ATL and blow them out. They have a huge game next week to pretty much determine the #1 seed against SEA. They wanna come in to ATL, score and leave. I see this as a 34-27 type game, as ATL should be able to score points and even backdoor cover, which brings me to my next wager...

NO/ATL O54 (1U)
This play is based more on trends then matchups and teams. Thursday night games are 9-2 on the over this year, which makes perfect sense. Most teams on Thursday are coming off a short week with less rest and preparation, therefore the defense suffers, not the offense. This is a high number based on ATL's poor-ish offense but I expect the usual sloppy defense and even a special teams score.

R. White Rec. Yds O 58.5 -105 (1U)
ATL will have to pass.. a lot. They'll be behind most of the game and will be looking to move the ball and they only type of success they'll have is through the air, as their running game is non-existent. White looked ok last week but I look for him to have a fairly good game tonight as Ryan will be forced to pass all game.

D. Brees O 27.5 Completions -130 (1U)
NO is a passing team. Have always been a passing team. Even when their up big, they still pass. I don't see how Brees won't be between 20-25 by halftime.

loungee · 11-24-13, 01:04 AM

ATS Record: 1-5-0 (-10.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-1-0 (+2.00 units)
Props Record: 0-2-0 (-2.00 units)
Total: 3-8-0 (-10.00 units)

1-3 for -2.00 units for Thursday Night. I have a couple of plays on both early and late games and they are as posted:

SD +5 (1U) WIN
San Diego burned me last week against the Dolphins but this seems to be a good spot for them. KC isn't exactly a covering team this year, going 6-4 and San Diego being 5-4-1. But this is it for San Diego, this is their season. A loss all but elimanates them from any playoff contention. This game means nothing to KC. Win or lose, they have DEN next week for the division title, so to speak. With KC coming off last weeks loss to DEN and another game against DEN game looming, I don't see an all out effort being played. I'll take the points and the team with more to lose.

MIA +4.5 (1U) WIN
If I trusted MIA more, I'd put more on them in this situation. CAR is coming off their biggest win of the season, an emotional one against NE on Monday night, and I can see this as your classic letdown situation game. MIA has been up and down this season, surprising me last week while losing to the likes of the Bucs earlier on. CAR has struggled as the road favorite this year, going 1-2, while MIA is 2-0 as the home favorite. I like the home dog here but given their up and down season, I'm only going to risk 1 unit.

PIT/CLE O40 (2U) LOSS
CLE struggled early on with their offense.. that'll happen when Brandon Freakin' Weeden is your QB. Any other QB? CLE looks halfway decent. Their last two divisional games against BAL and CIN have gone over the posted total, 41.5 and 40 respectively. Jason Campbell is no Peyton Manning, but lucky for us, he's not Brandon Weeden. On the PIT side, their offense has picked up as well. After going three straight weeks scoring 19 or less, their last 3 games they have averaged a shade over 30 points. Now NE, BUF and DET are no CLE as far as defense is concerned and yes, this is a divisional tilt, but I can still see both teams putting up 20+ points, giving a final score of 21-20, 24-23 type.

CHI +1 (2U) LOSS
This line is solely based on three major things: 1.) STL is coming off a bye 2.) The week before that, they blew out IND, a not-as-sexy pick anymore for playoff darkhorse 3.) The injuries plaguing the Bears. But, STL shouldn't be favored. Yes, their defensive line is formidable, probably the best the Bears have seen so far this year but McCown is mobile, gets rid of the ball instead of being sacked and is very smart. He doesn't just game manage, he wins games. The Bears have a potent offense, 2nd in PPG, with the best (healthy) duo of receivers, a big TE and a top 7 (at least this year) all around RB. This should be a high scoring game, so look at the over as well, but I'm gonna stick with the Bears, going into STL and taking care of business in order to stay in the hunt for a wild card berth and the division.

NYJ/BAL O39 (3U) LOSS
This is more of a system play than feel because my system has this game set at 43.5. Yes, both offenses are struggling, neither is very potent but you also have to take into account defensive touchdowns, which I believe there will be at least one, or a turnover that directly leads to a touchdown. I see this as a 30-14 type game by BAL, as they bounce back from the rough CHI loss. I think both defenses are exploitable and despite Flacco's struggles, this defense is perfect to bounce back off of. BAL has gone over 2 of their last three while NYJ have gone over 4 straight games. I won't kid you.. the last four NYJ games going over isn't necessarily because of their offense (scoring 14 and 9 in two of those games) but their defense also allowed an average of a little over 33 points per game during that 4 game stretch. If this weird JETS trend continues of alternating good and bad games, they should be good for at least 24 points. I'm taking the over for 3 units.

I will have a few plays for the afternoon games

loungee · 11-24-13, 12:37 PM

3 late plays I'm eyeing.. see how early games go. BOL to everyone

loungee · 11-24-13, 08:06 PM

Rough first half of games.. I was on AZ -2.5 for 3U but I didn't post in time so it doesn't count. Tonight I love..

NE +2.5 (5U)

I know.. NE burned me last week so be wary of it again. And Brady is ridiculous after a loss, SU and ATS. There is so many angles and trends I could spit out to sway you NE side. Peyton's great, he has weapons. He's 2-5 in games below 30 degrees. I could tell you more but bottom line, this is the bet. This is primtime, where so many people are chasing their losses with DEN -2.5. It's easy, they say. It's bankable. How does DEN not win by 3? Well how does NE not win or lose by less than 3 last week? I'm going big on NE.. tail me, fade me. It's the right side.

loungee · 11-26-13, 10:13 PM

Updated 11/26/13

ATS Record: 4-6-0 (-5.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-3-0 (-3.00 units)
Props Record: 0-2-0 (-2.00 units)
Total: 6-11-0 (-10.00 units)

One big play hit but a rough go with the totals. Quite a few juicy plays for Thanksgiving night. Hope to be a profitable one.

loungee · 11-28-13, 12:29 PM

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

GB/DET O50 (1U) PUSH
OAK +9.5 (1U) WIN
BAL/PIT U41 (1U)

loungee · 11-28-13, 02:36 PM

Also going to add:

J. Witten Total Rec. O 4.5 -120 (1U) LOSS

Best of luck everyone. Have some scotch while watching these bad teams today.

loungee · 11-28-13, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by loungee

Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

GB/DET O50 (1U) PUSH
OAK +9.5 (1U)
BAL/PIT U41 (1U)

I fortunately enough waited and got the game at 49 but that means nothing for purposes of this thread. Hope everyone else was able to get it at 49 or 49.5. Green Bay fumbling inside the 10 on the last play of the game sums up the game. Fortunate enough to push, considering DET left 10 points out there in the first half.

loungee · 11-29-13, 06:47 PM

1-2-1 -1.00 unit

Rough on that PIT/BAL under. Had it down to the wire until that damn PIT tuddy. Hopefully can start to get things rolling Sunday. Hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.

Updated Record

ATS Record: 5-6-0 (-4.00 units)
O/U Record: 2-4-1 (-4.00 units)
Props Record: 0-3-0 (-3.00 units)
Total: 7-13-1 (-11.00 units)

loungee · 12-01-13, 12:25 PM

TENN +4 (1U) LOSS
IND has not been the same team since they lost Wayne for the year. They don't move the ball as good or efficiently, they've struggled as of late, going 1-2-1 ATS (the TEN game could be considered a push in my book at -3 and not a win since I, and most of America i believe got it at -3 but I use one website for these purposes so such as). They've struggled.. SU and ATS lately. Why would they all of a sudden get it together against a tough TEN defense? Because Fitz is their QB? Last I checked, he's playing serviceable, making good passes and limiting turnovers. TEN defense keeps this close and I actually believe they win straight up with one of the most underrated defenses in the league. IND isn't the same team that beat DEN, SF and SEA.

CHI/MIN U50 (1U) WIN
My system calls for under, my gut calls for under but everyone else says over. CHI defense is atrocious, MIN is as well. So why the hell is this at 50? Well MIN offense is completely incompetent.. horrible.. piss poor. Ponder is their best option. Read that again. Ponder is their best option. Against this leaky defense, I still don't think they can score more than 20. I'm a FSU and CHI fan but I am willing to admit mediocrity. Or straight crap if you wanna call it that. I think this game starts quick against bad defenses but ends up being a 24-20 type game. Oh, not to mention their a combined 8-13-1 in O/U with MIN being 2-8-1. Yes the scoring PPG (and PPG given up) says over, but call me crazy, it'll be a sloppy game, grind it out late 3rd/early 4th.

ARZ +3.5 (2U) WIN
This one was a tricky one to handicap. Both teams are playing great as of late. The Eagles are hitting their stride offensively while ARZ has always had a good, stout defense. AZ is coming off a great, big win. But so is PHI.. a divisional win no less. So why not take the small home favorite? Because I believe in AZ defense that much. Oh, and Palmer has stopped turning it over. It's never really been about Palmer losing his ability to play (at least not for me). He can still throw and play, he still belongs in football with a staring job. I can name 8 worse(currently starting, not about health).. Geno, E.J. (debatable), Flynn, Keenum (cute first two games.. teams have figured him out), McGloin, Flacco (yes.. he's been horrible this year), Weeden, Henne, Ponder. Palmer is talented, still is.. it's been about turnovers this year. If he doesn't turn the ball over in this game, AZ wins. Their defense is good enough and their offense is talented enough to outgun PHI. AZ with less than 2 turnovers win straight up.

KC +6.5 (1U) LOSS
I'll keep this short. Divisional game, played within 2 weeks of the first (which was a loss), at home. Divisional, home dog. I like it already. Yes, their defense isn't healthy but neither is DEN. I would give the slight edge on offense to DEN (sarcasm fellas). However, I believe Reid and the OC let Smith air it out early and often. KC doesn't have the weapons that DEN has but they have Bowe, they have a speedy Avery, they have big TE's and they have a top 3 RB and probably the best pass catching RB in the league. I believe they run, and run, and run with Charles.. but not just with Charles. Look out for Knile Davis. Talented RB who can spell Charles not just for breathe but lots and lots of yards. KC eats up a lot of clock with a mixture of run and run and across the middle with their TE's with a sprinkle of downfield shots. Look for KC to control the clock, and they'll win the possession battle and keep this close. Maybe that wasn't short enough.

SF -8.5 (1U) WIN
SF looks to be back on track, at least back to healthy. They have their top 4 wide receivers, healthy, and for the first time all year. Rust? yes, perhaps. But STL still has to cover Crabtree, Manningham, Boldin on top of Davis and Gore out of the backfield. SF has covered 7 of their last 8, going 2-1 on spreads of 7 or more on the year. STL has a mean, good defense but SF offense is just too much. Their getting too healthy. STL is overmatched here as SF defense is finally getting healthy as well. I see SF winning by two touchdowns, if not more.

loungee · 12-01-13, 04:17 PM

Barring some crazy FG/Touchdown exchange in overtime in the Bears game, the under should hit. Disappointed about the Titans game.. felt like we had that. On to the afternoon games.

loungee · 12-01-13, 08:08 PM

3-2 +2.00 units bringing the updated record to..

ATS Record: 7-8-0 (-3.00 units)
O/U Record: 3-4-1 (-3.00 units)
Props Record: 0-3-0 (-3.00 units)
Total: 10-15-1 (-9.00 units)

NYG PK EM (2U) WIN
WSH is just a complete disaster. A team in shambles. They have nothing to play for except to not give St. Louis a top 5 pick in next years draft. G-men still are in the division hunt, albeit an outside one, and with PHI and DAL winning this week, they have to keep pace. They're not an overwhelming good team but with the running game all but back, Eli has been able to cut back on turnovers, playing smart ball. The Giants are better in all three phases of the game than WSH, although much can be debated with the running game. It's surprising WSH has had such a successful running game seeing as how they're always playing from behind. I'm going to take the divisional road team here, even though I don't like do it. WSH is just a horrible team and I refuse to bet them. Give me the 2x Super Bowl winning program with more to lose with a balanced attack.

loungee · 12-01-13, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by loungee

3-2 +2.00 units bringing the updated record to..

ATS Record: 7-8-0 (-3.00 units)
O/U Record: 3-4-1 (-3.00 units)
Props Record: 0-3-0 (-3.00 units)
Total: 10-15-1 (-9.00 units)

NYG PK EM (2U)
WSH is just a complete disaster. A team in shambles. They have nothing to play for except to not give St. Louis a top 5 pick in next years draft. G-men still are in the division hunt, albeit an outside one, and with PHI and DAL winning this week, they have to keep pace. They're not an overwhelming good team but with the running game all but back, Eli has been able to cut back on turnovers, playing smart ball. The Giants are better in all three phases of the game than WSH, although much can be debated with the running game. It's surprising WSH has had such a successful running game seeing as how they're always playing from behind. I'm going to take the divisional road team here, even though I don't like do it. WSH is just a horrible team and I refuse to bet them. Give me the 2x Super Bowl winning program with more to lose with a balanced attack.

A. Morris Rush Yds. U88.5 (1U) WIN
This is a good Giants run defense and as much as the Skins want to stick with what their good at, I don't see them being able to stick to running as has been the case all year. They'll get behind early, and big, and forced to throw. Morris is a really good back but they like to spell him on 3rd down with Helu. I think the Giants can keep him under the posted total.

Best of Luck.

loungee · 12-02-13, 12:34 AM

Much better weekend then the first two, as we went 5-2 for a +5.00 units. I will have a play or two for Monday Night but won't be posted until tomorrow once I do a little digging. Updated record below. Hope everyone made some money.

ATS Record: 8-8-0 (-1.00 units)
O/U Record: 3-4-1 (-3.00 units)
Props Record: 1-3-0 (-2.00 units)
Total: 12-15-1 (-6.00 units)

loungee · 12-02-13, 06:31 PM

SEA -6 (1U) WIN
I dont have time for an extensive writeup. I got this at -5 earlier in the week, but for the sake of this thread, I'm posting with what the spread is now. It seems about right, despite SEA being dominant at home and NO struggles on the road. I expect this to come down to exactly a touchdown, as most MNF spreads are pretty sharp. Is there a lot of line value here? Probably not. But i'll take SEA at home giving less than a touchdown. Best of Luck

loungee · 12-03-13, 04:56 PM

For the weekend, we went 7-4-1, adding a +5.00 to the bankroll. Much better this weekend as a player prop finally hit as well as both of my 2 unit plays hit. I don't like to read anything on here, or anywhere for that matter, before i make and place my picks. Don't like to let myself be influenced at all. Seems like a lot of people here and elsewhere felt NO was the right side for a variety of reasons. However, sometimes the pick is as easy as it looks. At least for me, once I start to overthink angles, overthink and outsmart Vegas, is when I get in trouble. The spread was less than a touchdown by one of the best home teams going against one of the worse outdoor road teams. I hope everyone else was able to cash. Onto Thursday.

ATS Record: 9-8-0 (0.00 units)
O/U Record: 3-4-1 (-3.00 units)
Props Record: 1-3-0 (-2.00 units)
Total: 13-15-1 (-5.00 units)

loungee · 12-05-13, 04:53 PM

JAC +3 +105 (3U) WIN
I am thoroughly confused at this line on so many levels. First of all, who are the Texans to be favored against anyone on the road, let alone a field goal? Their awful. Their season is over. They aren't even trying, it seems. They're playing for the #1 pick, essentially, and maybe a legit QB like Bridgewater. On the other side, Jacksonville has played themselves out of the #1 pick by playing so well lately. Do they have the better personnel in this game? No. Texans have good players, star players, but just aren't playing as a team like Jacksonville is. Secondly, one of my favorite trends is in play here: home divisional dogs. Thirdly, 61% of the public is on Houston. Why? The public is on them because of perception, because of the team name. There is no doubt Jacksonville has been playing so much better than the Texans. They're coming off a tough home loss to the Patroits, on a short week, with travel. I expect them to be flat here and Jacksonville to win straight up.

HOU/JAC O43 (1U) WIN
Neither defense is particularly good or playing good. Jacksonville just lit up a better defense last week, Cleveland. Are they some legit, offensive powerhouse? Far from it. But both these teams are good for 20+ points here as these teams are a combined 15-9 on the over (8-4 and 7-5 respectively)

loungee · 12-05-13, 11:51 PM

Updated as of 12/5/13

ATS Record: 10-8-0 (+3.00 units)
O/U Record: 4-4-1 (-2.00 units)
Props Record: 1-3-0 (-2.00 units)
Total: 15-15-1 (-1.00 units)

Nice night as we went 2-0 and added 4 units, bringing the last 7 days record to 9-4-1 for a +9.00 units. Hope everyone jumped on the Jags decently big. I wish I would've went more but it is still the Jags, no matter how they've played lately, and couldn't bring myself to make this Pick 6. Wins and win and onto the weekend

loungee · 12-08-13, 12:29 PM

I'm in a bit of a rush so i won't have writeups for the early games but here they are. Good luck.

CIN -6.5 (3U) WIN
CLE +10 (1U) WIN
PHI -2 (1U) WIN
BUF/TB O42 (2U) LOSS

Best of luck.

loungee · 12-08-13, 02:44 PM

TEN +13.5 (1U) LOSS
Cold weather, division locked up for DEN, coming off 3 tough games. TEN will be able to hang around somewhat, as their still fighting for a playoff berth. AFC South isnt quite locked up yet, especially given IND losing as of this post by two touchdowns. I'll take the desperate team for two touchdowns.

SF -2 (2U) PUSH
I love SF in this situation for a couple of reasons. For one, they are starting to get healthy at WR as well as defense. Giving Kaep more weapons will only make this team that much more dangerous, as well as getting their studs back on defense. Secondly, the revenge factor. SEA dismantled SF earlier in the year and you know that is on their mind. I don't think SF is gonna blow them out like SEA did earlier this year, but given SEA being so inept on the road, I think SF can win by a field goal

loungee · 12-08-13, 04:13 PM

Early afternoon games are shaping up to be quite good. Disappointed in the TB game as BUF just did not show up

loungee · 12-08-13, 07:35 PM

Went 3-2-1 for +2.00 units for the day. Onto a nice night game to wrap up the day. Writeup to come

labgy75 · 12-08-13, 07:48 PM

Nice job Loungee..been following your picks! Keep it up. Looking forward to tonights pick. Labgy

loungee · 12-08-13, 08:01 PM

Thank you Labgy.. glad you're making some money. Tonights plays, as of now:

NO -3 (2U) WIN
NO plays outstanding at home, we all know that. They are right up there with Seattle as far as who plays the best at home. NO looked bad last week against Seattle. There is no two ways of saying it. But this is a bounce back game for them. This is for the division. I know I've been tough on Cam and CAR all year, probably the last guy to buy into the hype, but I like Brees, Payton and Company at home, off a huge loss in primetime.

loungee · 12-08-13, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by loungee

thank you labgy.. Glad you're making some money. Tonights plays, as of now:

no -3 (2u)
no plays outstanding at home, we all know that. They are right up there with seattle as far as who plays the best at home. No looked bad last week against seattle. There is no two ways of saying it. But this is a bounce back game for them. This is for the division. I know i've been tough on cam and car all year, probably the last guy to buy into the hype, but i like brees, payton and company at home, off a huge loss in primetime.

car/no o47 (1u) LOSS

loungee · 12-08-13, 11:35 PM

For today, we went 4-3-1 adding +3.00 units. I have noticed quite a bit how sharp these lines have been recently. Not as big of a weekend I was hoping for but still a positive Sunday so onto tomorrow nights plays.