Panthers/Niners > 42 ::LOCK::

firekillex · 11-04-13, 06:21 PM

i may jump on this with you, both teams put up big points usually every week
both have good defenses but i could easily see this going over 42 if cam and kap show up

Noleafclover · 11-04-13, 06:53 PM

Really think that first sentence tells the story here. Do eeeeeeet.

firekillex · 11-04-13, 06:57 PM

just jumped on $50
lets get this mooola

Noleafclover · 11-04-13, 07:03 PM

Mako-SBR · 11-04-13, 07:07 PM

A side indicator is pointing the Niners' way as well for anyone wanting to pair it with the O/U, the old "home favorite coming off a bye versus a team travelling more than two time zones" thing, which over the past 10 seasons has won at 71%.

I would have thought it was a stay-away game as Carolina's defense is no joke and sCam seems to have finally learned how to manage a f-ing game, but the trend is the trend. In.

Noleafclover · 11-04-13, 07:28 PM

Originally posted by Mako-SBR

Carolina's defense is no joke

So I cheated a little and used SEA's away average of 22.2 instead of their 25.8 overall average, because I did see it as significant for Seattle (and they played @ Car). Carolina's opponents average 20.27 points per game. For comparison, the bills at 21 ppg are 21st in the league.

This is what I'm saying about overrated. Their opponents' offense is on average in the bottom 3rd of the league. Not that that makes them a joke, but FWIW.

Noleafclover · 11-05-13, 07:35 PM

Bump for great justice. > 42.5

SmittyZ28 · 11-05-13, 11:18 PM

Surprisingly low number I agree, had this figured at 47 with the points Scam has been putting up, so I grabbed it. However I would not say this is a lock by any means, Carolina D is legit and Kap has been a bit of a Jekyl and Hyde this year and we know the 9ers D can put the clamps down as well. Low total is a strong value but by no means a lock, standard 1 unit play for me.

Good luck buddy

Noleafclover · 11-05-13, 11:40 PM

Kap's gone missing without Davis, Manningham's return should be big. And Carolina's opponents to date do not include a single great offense - sea, buf, nyg, ari, min, stl, tb, atl.

Also, if you had it at 47, how far off are the totals you consider a lock?

GL as well, hope we get it.

Potentate · 11-06-13, 02:58 AM

Don't necessarily disagree with the high-scoring angle, because the Niners have definitely been scoring in their recent games. But, just something to think about... The Niners have no problem running all day long and winning ugly, you know, 17-10, especially if their defensive scheme is working and the opposition isn't getting into the end zone. Either way, at -6, I see the Niners covering at home. And the Niners scoring 30+ on their own wouldn't be a shocker, especially after a bye week, and especially if they cut Kaepernick loose.

Noleafclover · 11-06-13, 03:45 AM

Originally posted by Potentate

Don't necessarily disagree with the high-scoring angle, because the Niners have definitely been scoring in their recent games. But, just something to think about... The Niners have no problem running all day long and winning ugly, you know, 17-10, especially if their defensive scheme is working and the opposition isn't getting into the end zone. Either way, at -6, I see the Niners covering at home. And the Niners scoring 30+ on their own wouldn't be a shocker, especially after a bye week, and especially if they cut Kaepernick loose.

Every single game that they had Davis - their only target that's been injured, which I'll repeat shows Manningham's value returning. I like -6 as well, think there's correlation with the total so I wouldn't be opposed to a correlated parlay if I wasn't so heavy on the total.

Jikos · 11-06-13, 07:44 AM

Tailing bro agree with the play but it could go both ways. 50/50 shootout or defensive battle but we have added value of a backdoor cover in case it's the latter

mtofell · 11-10-13, 12:26 AM

I'm pounding the 49ers and the over on this game. As someone pointed out, CAR hasn't beaten a single team worth a shit. And the niners are clicking on a cylinders now. The o/u and the spread on this game are the two easiest calls of the week IMO.

JM17 · 11-10-13, 01:18 AM

Lock

Pick'nParlays · 11-10-13, 02:01 AM

bol locked the over in early week at 42

think it goes over but barely

TexasJayhawk · 11-10-13, 09:38 AM

NoLeaf, do you see both teams keeping it really close the first half and then exploding offensively in the 2nd half?

Carolina and SF first half defense is beyond good...(10 pts combined total allowed).

Cause-I-Need-It · 11-10-13, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by TexasJayhawk

NoLeaf, do you see both teams keeping it really close the first half and then exploding offensively in the 2nd half?

Carolina and SF first half defense is beyond good...(10 pts combined total allowed).

Agreed, that's why I was thinking of betting 2nd Half + OT -½ Pts @ -110. Though the stats and my gut do not match up.

1^st Half Points
Rank	Team	2013	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away
3	49ers	15.4	22.3	28	16	14.8
16	CAR	12	15	14	13.8	10.2

2^nd Half Points
Rank	Team	2013	Last 3	Last 1	Home	Away
7	CAR	13.5	16.7	20	13.5	13.5
18	49ers	11.9	12.7	14	10.8	13

chosen4th · 11-10-13, 05:45 PM

Originally posted by Noleafclover

Niners have not failed to score 30 points in a game where Vernon Davis played all 4 quarters, which also illustrates the impact the likely return of Manningham should bring to this offense. Panthers have put up 30 as well their past 3 (despite a poor night from Caaam yesterday), and are now getting to their healthiest as far as weapons.

Offensive line issues plague the Panthers, and it looks like Aldon Smith will be back for the 9ers, unfortunately, and these are two strong defensive teams, but the Panthers' stats are somewhat inflated because of the poor offenses they've faced.

I still make this number at 48.5 if Manningham plays, and will not be shocked to see the 9ers put up 42 on their own off the bye. Locked it in last night at 41.5.

Went something like 9-3 2011 on "locks," was 5-3 2012, 0-1 season to date.

Fail.