Walk us Thru Step by Step on How you Handicap a Football game...

[Big Bear]

Please share step by step what you look at and how much weight do
you put in certain things...

Do you bet based on a "feeling"?

[peacebyinches]

My process is quite intricate, I have been developing these methods feverishly for many years, constantly fine tuning each and every part of every step. Admittedly, its too intense for most people, but its worth trying:


Step 1: get sloppy drunk
Step 2: log onto bovada or 5dimes
Step 3: randomly choose a side for whatever games are on TV that afternoon
Step 4: watch the games, constantly yell like a drunken maniac until neighbors come over and threaten to call the police
Step 5: shatter beer bottles all over the room in a fit of rage when my pick loses
Step 6: repeat again for the later games

If you can manage to apply this method properly, you'll be wiping your ass with hundred dollar bills in no time!!

[TPowell]

My process is quite intricate, I have been developing these methods feverishly for many years, constantly fine tuning each and every part of every step. Admittedly, its too intense for most people, but its worth trying:


Step 1: get sloppy drunk
Step 2: log onto bovada or 5dimes
Step 3: randomly choose a side for whatever games are on TV that afternoon
Step 4: watch the games, constantly yell like a drunken maniac until neighbors come over and threaten to call the police
Step 5: shatter beer bottles all over the room in a fit of rage when my pick loses
Step 6: repeat again for the later games

If you can manage to apply this method properly, you'll be wiping your ass with hundred dollar bills in no time!!

Step 6 should be the yayo pal

[leetreaper]

My process is quite intricate, I have been developing these methods feverishly for many years, constantly fine tuning each and every part of every step. Admittedly, its too intense for most people, but its worth trying:


Step 1: get sloppy drunk
Step 2: log onto bovada or 5dimes
Step 3: randomly choose a side for whatever games are on TV that afternoon
Step 4: watch the games, constantly yell like a drunken maniac until neighbors come over and threaten to call the police
Step 5: shatter beer bottles all over the room in a fit of rage when my pick loses
Step 6: repeat again for the later games

If you can manage to apply this method properly, you'll be wiping your ass with hundred dollar bills in no time!!

[TPowell]

Please share step by step what you look at and how much weight do
you put in certain things...

Do you bet based on a "feeling"?

wow, I'm not sure how anyone could do this without missing a step (unless you just went through handicapping a real game and wrote down the steps)

[20Four7]

My handicapping is real simple.. Find out who Lang is on and go the other way. I could post crap about modelling and other shit but why make it difficult.

[peacebyinches]

Step 6 should be the yayo pal

Yayo and other stimulants are definitely recommended, and should be included at all stages, but only after building a solid expertise with the method. Also, its strongly advised that you at least double or triple your typical wager amounts if said substances are ingested, otherwise you'll be losing a lot of value (since its pretty much a fact that no drunk and coked up person has ever lost a wager ever)

[stevenash]

Games are won and lost in the trenches.

O-line versus D-line and vice versa is where you start first.
In baseball, you start with the starting pitching, in football you start with the trenches match ups.

After that I'll look at the skill position matchups, wide outs versus defense backs and safeties, and vice versa.

Equally as important as the skill position matchups, special teams are a factor.
Which team's punter can coffin corner kick to the five yard line time in time out, pinning the opposition deep.
Which team has the place kicker that can nail 50 yarders in the clutch. Can't ignore those special team kickers.
Take away, give away. Which team has the + next to their number in turnovers is important.

Which brings me back to my original statement.
Games are won and lost in the trenches, you have to start there.
Want proof? Jets mauled the Saints on Sunday because of the grunts on the line of scrimmage.
Ivory got his nut off because the Jet o-line manhandled the Saint d-line.
Brees was off because the Jet defensive front made the Saint o-line their person meat puppets.

[Big Bear]

Games are won and lost in the trenches.

O-line versus D-line and vice versa is where you start first.
In baseball, you start with the starting pitching, in football you start with the trenches match ups.

After that I'll look at the skill position matchups, wide outs versus defense backs and safeties, and vice versa.

Equally as important as the skill position matchups, special teams are a factor.
Which team's punter can coffin corner kick to the five yard line time in time out, pinning the opposition deep.
Which team has the place kicker that can nail 50 yarders in the clutch. Can't ignore those special team kickers.
Take away, give away. Which team has the + next to their number in turnovers is important.

Which brings me back to my original statement.
Games are won and lost in the trenches, you have to start there.
Want proof? Jets mauled the Saints on Sunday because of the grunts on the line of scrimmage.
Ivory got his nut off because the Jet o-line manhandled the Saint d-line.
Brees was off because the Jet defensive front made the Saint o-line their person meat puppets.

excellent response. And thank you for taking the time to post this.

[Big Bear]

See the Trenches matchups O-Line vs D-Line is something
i need to start putting more weight in...

This is exactly why the Atlanta Falcons struggle so much.

Lately i guess i have focused a good deal of my attention on
WR vs CB matchups and tried to avoid teams with incompetent QB's...

It seems like many NFL games come down to the last 5 minutes
and those teams with a QB that can perform under pressure come out on top...

But your right if you dominate the line of scrimmage that goes a LONG way.

[thechaoz]

My process is quite intricate, I have been developing these methods feverishly for many years, constantly fine tuning each and every part of every step. Admittedly, its too intense for most people, but its worth trying:


Step 1: get sloppy drunk
Step 2: log onto bovada or 5dimes
Step 3: randomly choose a side for whatever games are on TV that afternoon
Step 4: watch the games, constantly yell like a drunken maniac until neighbors come over and threaten to call the police
Step 5: shatter beer bottles all over the room in a fit of rage when my pick loses
Step 6: repeat again for the later games

If you can manage to apply this method properly, you'll be wiping your ass with hundred dollar bills in no time!!

Oh man I'm hungover but that's some funny ass shit right there. How true.

Post of the year

[brownsfan]

Games are won and lost in the trenches.

O-line versus D-line and vice versa is where you start first.
In baseball, you start with the starting pitching, in football you start with the trenches match ups.

After that I'll look at the skill position matchups, wide outs versus defense backs and safeties, and vice versa.

Equally as important as the skill position matchups, special teams are a factor.
Which team's punter can coffin corner kick to the five yard line time in time out, pinning the opposition deep.
Which team has the place kicker that can nail 50 yarders in the clutch. Can't ignore those special team kickers.
Take away, give away. Which team has the + next to their number in turnovers is important.

Which brings me back to my original statement.
Games are won and lost in the trenches, you have to start there.
Want proof? Jets mauled the Saints on Sunday because of the grunts on the line of scrimmage.
Ivory got his nut off because the Jet o-line manhandled the Saint d-line.
Brees was off because the Jet defensive front made the Saint o-line their person meat puppets.

Thanks for this response! Very helpful

[peacebyinches]

Oh man I'm hungover but that's some funny ass shit right there. How true.

Post of the year

Needless to say, but after yesterdays NFL games I'm also extremely hungover (and up to my ass in glass shards from broken Blue Moon bottles)

[davidcsmith]

Games are won and lost in the trenches.

O-line versus D-line and vice versa is where you start first.
In baseball, you start with the starting pitching, in football you start with the trenches match ups.

After that I'll look at the skill position matchups, wide outs versus defense backs and safeties, and vice versa.

Equally as important as the skill position matchups, special teams are a factor.
Which team's punter can coffin corner kick to the five yard line time in time out, pinning the opposition deep.
Which team has the place kicker that can nail 50 yarders in the clutch. Can't ignore those special team kickers.
Take away, give away. Which team has the + next to their number in turnovers is important.

Which brings me back to my original statement.
Games are won and lost in the trenches, you have to start there.
Want proof? Jets mauled the Saints on Sunday because of the grunts on the line of scrimmage.
Ivory got his nut off because the Jet o-line manhandled the Saint d-line.
Brees was off because the Jet defensive front made the Saint o-line their person meat puppets.

stevenash, where do you find this info on the offensive line v defensive line matchup? It's something that I've often thought of, but it's hard to find unless it's your team.

[f1rstdegree]

First post and fairly new to this process. I have just started using 3rd down% for and against along with comparing strength of schedule PF/PA. Anyone else use any of these?

[thechaoz]

Needless to say, but after yesterdays NFL games I'm also extremely hungover (and up to my ass in glass shards from broken Blue Moon bottles)

lol me too after a weekend bender and my offensive coordinator sucking ass again (has for the last three years)

[BigdaddyQH]

First, you have to do your homework way before the line comes out. You have to determine what the line should be and ccompare it with the actual line that comes out. Next, NEVER wager with an off shore sports book. You are just throwing away money. They basically tell you what you can do and what you cannot do. I, along with others, some of whom live in Vegas, have accounts in 12 different Sports
Books all over town. This enables us to middle without raising eyebrows, and middling is the easiest way to make money in this game. More later.

[stevenash]

Next, NEVER wager with an off shore sports book. You are just throwing away money. They basically tell you what you can do and what you cannot do.

Foolish statement.
You should have two safe off shore accounts.
Brick and mortar sports books like the old Hilton doesn't offer you nearly the props that a 5Dime does.
Can you get reduced juice at the big sports books in Vegas?
No, you can't.

You talk about middling, how often can you get a 3 point or better discrepancy in a football game?

[inrenokid]

I may use special infromation, as in previous NFL playoffs, Greenbay and Pittsburgh both lost due to out side influences(personal problems); also there are many stats of use along these lines that come out that are not basic "numbers" . As for one that a race horse with a quarter crack does not win a race, ex Big Brown . Or say the real situation as in all forms of stats show what? Skill. But size and speed are real ex Stanford over Oregon. Or why a team wins and if they are doing it. Ex 49 ers. Lossing why? No spread option. Kap slides rather then runs.

[allin1]

I may use special infromation, as in previous NFL playoffs, Greenbay and Pittsburgh both lost due to out side influences(personal problems); also there are many stats of use along these lines that come out that are not basic "numbers" . As for one that a race horse with a quarter crack does not win a race, ex Big Brown . Or say the real situation as in all forms of stats show what? Skill. But size and speed are real ex Stanford over Oregon. Or why a team wins and if they are doing it. Ex 49 ers. Lossing why? No spread option. Kap slides rather then runs.

impressive for a second post who are you?

[Professor1215]

Go to Pinnacle

Calculate the no-vig line.

If your results vary greatly from that line, go back to the drawing board.

It's been said a million times, no one is going to give you the information you requested.

[Joey Blaze]

My process is quite intricate, I have been developing these methods feverishly for many years, constantly fine tuning each and every part of every step. Admittedly, its too intense for most people, but its worth trying:


Step 1: get sloppy drunk
Step 2: log onto bovada or 5dimes
Step 3: randomly choose a side for whatever games are on TV that afternoon
Step 4: watch the games, constantly yell like a drunken maniac until neighbors come over and threaten to call the police
Step 5: shatter beer bottles all over the room in a fit of rage when my pick loses
Step 6: repeat again for the later games

If you can manage to apply this method properly, you'll be wiping your ass with hundred dollar bills in no time!!

dude you copied my method!

[Big Bear]

interesting topic for sure

any good books on the art of capping?

for as much time as i spend thinking about handicapping i should be learning more

[suzie]

get drunk get ****** and hope my bets win ..........................

at least we have fun losing ooo yes baby faster faster higher lil higher thats it giggles

[suzie]

BIG Bear sure there are some can be found in your local library or cheapo at amazon major help for me when i started betting sports
now with my good friend i dont need to read he takes by the hand and sits me down showing why he likes a game

[hurricane1091]

I look at past matchups, look at current form, and then whatever side I am on, I look at the other side and try to visualize the team I am not on winning. If I can't, I stick with the bet. If I can, I get drunk and then repeat the process and probably bet it anyways.