Took a beating today on my picks. Looking to try and get some back tonight. Maybe even a little parlay action, who is everyone betting or like tonight??????
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I had this game circled since the beginning of the week. The Texans are going to keep this game on the ground with Arian Foster. That will lead into big plays off play action to Hopkins and Andre Johnson. This Texans team has a new fire underneath them with the change at QB. Keenum is a good QB dating back to his days in college. He performed well last week against the Chiefs and gathered some confidence late.
The Colts on the other hand are coming off that "huge" win over the Colts. They stewed in this win for over a week now. Going back to my playing days that was something you never wanted to go into a "bye week" on. If you're playing hot you never want to go into the bye week because you won't come out hot. The loss of a veteran player like Reggie Wayne will be detrimental to the younger player because that takes away from the double team. Houston and the Over is the play. The public will pound this game hard as shit reaching to get the money back from today.Comment -
I am hearing that Foster may not play tonight?Comment -
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Either way I honestly think Tate and Foster switching it up will be the game plan. Keeping Keenum in the shotgun will be something the Texans do since that's something that suits him unlike SchaubComment -
Texans for me.Comment -
How are you going to play Houston with a beat up defense, a hurt starting running back, and a back up quarterback. I'll admit Houston isn't in terrible hands with Keenum at the helm but there's a reason he doesn't start. I'll agree with the over, but it'll be tough to convince me away from Indie.Comment -
ok but who is Luck going to be throwing to?? leaning Texans and overComment -
The reason he doesn't or didn't start was because you were a playoff team last year with a veteran QB. He wasn't drafted originally to replace Schaub right away. You don't just bench a veteran to start the year so that comment makes no sense. Secondly.....Houston is top rated on defense in nearly every category especially pass defense which is something Indy is now having to figure out with a shortage at WR. In the below injury report i see nothing showing me that this defense is banged up. The Texans have played numerous seasons without Cushing's so that point is moot.
HOUSTON TEXANS
Friday (11/1/13)
QUESTIONABLE
RB Arian Foster
(Full) Hamstring
PROBABLE
RG Brandon Brooks (Full) Toe
LT Duane Brown (Full) Toe
S Shiloh Keo (Full) Achilles
WR Keshawn Martin (Full) Shoulder
CB Brice McCain (Full) Knee
NT Earl Mitchell (Full) Knee
RT Derek Newton (Full) Knee/Elbow
S Eddie Pleasant (Full) Toe
WR DeVier Posey (Full) Calf
QB Matt Schaub (Full) Ankle
ILB Darryl Sharpton (Limited) Foot/Toe
LG Wade Smith (Limited) Knee
RB Ben Tate (Limited) Ribs
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Friday (11/1/13)
OUT
CB Josh Gordy (DNP) Groin
S Delano Howell (DNP) Neck
CB Greg Toler (DNP) Groin
QUESTIONABLE
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (DNP) Hamstring
LB Cam Johnson (DNP) Knee
PROBABLE
C Samson Satele (Full) Knee
LB Bjoern Werner (Full) FootComment -
ok you convinced me . looks like a pickem now. still like hou and over 42 1/2 ???Comment -
Yeah the reason any backup doesn't start is generally because he's behind a vet...And not good enough to start obviously. How can you say they're a top rated defense? They're near last in rushing and points against...Last I checked if you give up a lot of points, you're not considered a good defense.Comment -
Let me show you a little something....this is what the line movement has been all week. The public money or money in general was never favorable on the Texans yet this line moved down to a PK up until late this evening.
Now i want to show you the spreads released at the beginning of the year based on the teams that were originally entering the year. Which was a good Texans and a good Colts team who is still the same team that entered the year. Here was the spread to start the year....10/28 12:33pm IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 45.0 -110 45.0 -110 10/31 12:02pm IND-140 HOU+120 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 45.0 -110 45.0 -110 10/31 12:10pm IND-140 HOU+120 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 45.0 -110 45.0 -110 IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 10/31 6:35pm IND-140 HOU+120 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 44.5 -110 44.5 -110 IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 11/01 1:25pm HOU XX IND XX INDXX XX HOUXX XX XX XX XX XX IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 11/01 1:25pm HOU XX IND XX INDXX XX HOUXX XX XX XX XX XX INDXX HOUXX 11/01 2:48pm IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 44.5 -110 44.5 -110 IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 11/01 2:48pm IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 44.5 -110 44.5 -110 INDXX HOUXX 11/03 10:07am IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 44.0 -110 44.0 -110 IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 11/03 10:07am IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 44.0 -110 44.0 -110 INDPK HOUPK 11/03 10:11am IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 44.0 -110 44.0 -110 INDXX HOUXX 11/03 11:17am IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 43.5 -110 43.5 -110 INDXX HOUXX 11/03 11:21am IND-135 HOU+115 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDXX HOUXX 11/03 11:41am IND-130 HOU+110 IND-2 -110 HOU+2 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDXX HOUXX 11/03 12:53pm IND-130 HOU+110 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 11/03 12:53pm IND-130 HOU+110 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDXX HOUXX 11/03 3:11pm IND-130 HOU+110 IND-2 -110 HOU+2 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 IND-0.5 HOU+0.5 11/03 3:11pm IND-130 HOU+110 IND-2 -110 HOU+2 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDPK HOUPK 11/03 3:59pm IND-130 HOU+110 IND-2.5 -110 HOU+2.5 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDPK HOUPK 11/03 5:12pm IND-125 HOU+105 IND-1.5 -110 HOU+1.5 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDPK HOUPK 11/03 6:01pm IND-115 HOU-105 IND-1 -110 HOU+1 -110 43.0 -110 43.0 -110 INDPK HOUPK
WEEK 9
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (-3.5)
Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Carolina Panthers
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)
Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (-4.5)
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at New York Jets
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) at Oakland Raiders
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-4)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-4.5)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4)
WHY DID IT CHANGE? THE TEXANS REGRESSED MORE THEN A FG YET THEY GOT MORE RESPECT FROM THE BOOKS?
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Net Total Yards Leaders
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G 1 Houston 1874 267.7 1019 145.6 855 122.1 194 27.7 2 Carolina 2110 301.4 1555 222.1 555 79.3 96 13.7 3 Pittsburgh 2120 302.9 1267 181.0 853 121.9 153 21.9 4 Seattle 2314 289.3 1473 184.1 841 105.1 125 15.6 5 Oakland 2316 330.9 1687 241.0 629 89.9 150 21.4 6 Green Bay 2318 331.1 1733 247.6 585 83.6 158 22.6 7 New Orleans 2327 332.4 1555 222.1 772 110.3 120 17.1 8 Tennessee 2359 337.0 1539 219.9 820 117.1 146 20.9 9 Tampa Bay 2369 338.4 1707 243.9 662 94.6 163 23.3 10 Baltimore 2401 343.0 1671 238.7 730 104.3 148 21.1
It's not the defenses fault the QB threw interceptions for TD's. The scores aren't always on the defense but maybe turnovers.Comment -
Well, I guess we'll see. I just think Indy has plenty of weapons decent running and a good TE. They're coming off a bye, some people think that makes it tougher I think it is a huge advantage especially with Wayne being injured. After Ten. picking up a big win today this is a huge game for Indy. I wish everyone luck, I think we all agree on the over, I personally will not over think this game too much and go with Indy though.Comment -
Hey Eric, the 2nd to last post you made can you explain further? not understanding why the line would move against houston without heavy money coming inComment -
Ok let me rephrase that....heavy money maybe. Quantity of wagers being placed "no". The number of wagers being placed clearly doesn't favor the Texans. Which in turn means the heavy money would offset the number of wagers placed causing the line to stay steady or move in .5 pts not whole points.Comment -
Yes I know but to me the bye is more important to a team playing well that suffered a major injury. It gives Luck a full week with his new crew and they're itching to play after having a great season and being rested. A poor team coming off a bye for me is more of a crap shoot, either its demoralizing to see your regulars not there and having to start up an awful season. Or you have the week to have the new guys take over and jumpstart the season. I was just implying for me, the bye week was more important to Indy.Comment -
then why is the line moving against them? wouldnt the books have set it at HOU +1 when the they opened early this week if they thought HOU was the slightly stronger team in this matchup?Comment -
Very possible, but I'd rather have my team coming into the bye only needing to fix one problem (No Wayne) Then 10 problems, should be a great game though.Comment -
You have to set a number that looks appealing to the public. Thus setting it at -2.5 less than a fg looks appealing. As well as most parlay and teaser parlors will set it at -2.5 on early bird cards. It's too appealing for me to think that Houston isn't going to win this game. That's just my thought.Comment -
It's called reverse line movement....IF you are correct: which you are not.
The line opened on 10/27 with Indy at -2.5 at most Vegas books. Since then, money has slowly and consistently been coming in on Houston, which moves Indy's -2.5 up to -1 and finally a PK.
On 10/30, by the end of the day, 10% were on Houston ATS (90% on Indy). Today, 32% is on Houston ATS (68% Indy)Comment -
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thanks for the replies, really like handicapping that is supported by logic and data rather than random touts and dancing locks. btw why do you lean to the over? really want to hammer parlay with HOU/total but not sure to go with under or over.Comment -
f*ck it, lets do this.
- 11/3/2013 8:30 PM NFL Football 421 Indianapolis Colts/Houston Texans* Over 42 -110
- 11/3/2013 8:30 PM NFL Football 422 Houston Texans* pk +100 vs Indianapolis Colts
Risking $100.00 To Win $281.82 Comment -
Thank you!!! TD MOTHA FUCKAAAAASSSSSComment -
of course I do but just want to know the relation here...
i have been watching james carrey since he was just that...james carrey at the comedy store in LA and on In Living Color....I may be missing the reference though...Comment -
Bahahaahhahaha blocked here we go!!!Comment -
TD BABY....And someone in another thread says "Texans have no weapons" did you forget about the leading WR in yards for many of the past 5 years or more?????Comment
