Colts - Texans +/- 1.5 what???

[Jikos]

i see you continually making shit plays and shocker here ya go again... you could use some fukkin thought in your life you stupid bitch, so sick of retarded monkeys saying "your over thinking it" (2 words by the way you stupid illiterate nig)..learning to think would do you some good but considering who in your avatar i woulndt expect you to have a iq over 60..

whats up internet tough guy, where are my shit plays? i am very careful with what i post in NFL lately because its a tough sport to beat, and i am no professional but in the past two weeks i have been more careful with my money and these are the plays i have posted:

Giants ML +200 $$$
Cowboys ML +125 $$$
Ravens ML +125 LOSS
Giants ML -185 $$$

EDIT: you are the one who looks like you are on monkey tilt the way you are talking to me.

[Jikos]

why are you so mad bro, i simply stated my opinion, i think indy has over 53% chance to cover this weekend, that is my guess. nobody has a gun to your head, so go ahead and bet as much as you want on whichever side, or avoid the game. why so much hate?

[2daBank]

why are you so mad bro, i simply stated my opinion, i think indy has over 53% chance to cover this weekend, that is my guess. nobody has a gun to your head, so go ahead and bet as much as you want on whichever side, or avoid the game. why so much hate?

because you seem to have a problem discussing the game like a civilized ass person, instead insisting ppl are stupid or "overthinking" (2 words) because they dont agree with you, you provide not one ounce worth of capping worth discussing, quite frankly im sick of morons around here saying "you overthinking it" cause 1st off anyone who cant spell outta think a little more, and secondly that what wrong with most of you lames, you are incapable of thought..

[arpeggiomeister]

These are two very talented football teams. One has not lived up
to their expectations while the other has beaten some very stiff
competition like the Broncos, 49ers, and Seahawks.






The fact that the Colts have lost Reggie Wayne is a very big deal.
The fact that Hou has switched QBs is also a big deal. Both are
coming off a bye week. Both have motivating factors to win this
game. If Indy wins than they have this division all but sealed up.
If Houston loses their slim hopes of making the playoffs are
completely dead. Too many unanswered questions for me to even
consider taking this game. I would much rather pick on teams that
look like they will get their asses handed to them like the Jets.
The Steelers are in a tough spot. I see much easier games on the
board and feel no need to pull the trigger on this one.

The
worst thing that I see here is a bunch of name-calling trolls who
feel the need to prove they are better then each other. If someone
has a view that differs from yours it does not make them an idiot.
Listen to what they have to say and they just might give you an angle
you have not looked at. I would much rather spend my time
collaborating with people and gaining knowledge and insight then
fighting to prove mine is bigger then yours. That is absolutely
pathetic!!!

[arpeggiomeister]

whats up internet tough guy, where are my shit plays? i am very careful with what i post in NFL lately because its a tough sport to beat, and i am no professional but in the past two weeks i have been more careful with my money and these are the plays i have posted:

Giants ML +200 $$$
Cowboys ML +125 $$$
Ravens ML +125 LOSS
Giants ML -185 $$$

EDIT: you are the one who looks like you are on monkey tilt the way you are talking to me.

Good job brother!!! Keep it rolling.

[SteveRyan]

whats up internet tough guy, where are my shit plays?.....

Oh, you post a lot more than just NFL. I've seen your threads.

What's interesting is that in your "Guarantee" thread you are at 60%; however, you're down over 5 units. That means on your strongest picks you are betting the most units and losing.

[No coincidences]

Nobody has hit the nail on the head here. This is the deal; remember this.

Road favorites after a bye are almost always a solid bet. This is a strong betting trend and you need to look for it from week to week. If you aren't catching this, you are missing out on $$$. Between 2006-2012 it hit ATS 70%. The fav is the better team, who has had time to rest and prepare for the game. The adjustments they make usually give them a strong edge over the home dog.

However, when a road fave after a bye is playing a team WHO ALSO is coming off a bye, then you have a problem. These games are hard to cap because you cannot accurately predict what types of adjustments both teams have made. It's usually a pass. On top of that, it's inner-divisional. Good luck finding an edge here. In Vegas it either opened as a PK or became a PK at some point in most of the books. Pass, pass, pass, pass.

That's your big, long, drawn-out insight that everyone was missing? Generic trend stats that have absolutely nothing to do with this particular matchup?

Wow.

Houston is a PK to +2 here because they're a better team than the Colts and they're at home. Period. The only reason they're not -4 or -5 here is because of their struggles so far this season, and the fact that the Colts have two marquee wins.

This isn't rocket science.

[romoney]

Just hoping for a good game to watch! This one could go either way...love the colts pass rush and texans run game..i have Colts ML in a par...maybe the experience of Mathis gets to the QB and rattles him..there really aint much to analyze..just should be a good game! BOL

[rolltideroll0]

"Reverse trap" play is all it is. Books want to induce the "big boys" to back Houston. At true odds, Colts should be -6 (b/c of the road factor). Big boys will back Houston and get killed this weekend..because Houston LOOKS like a perfect dead cat bounce play.... Colts just off of a big win... Houston had time to adjust on their bye.... playing for their season. Normally, Houston +3 would be the play but Colts actually need to win this game. They are planning playoffs ... want to get best position possible. Final analysis: Looks are deceiving, Colts roll and win by 7 or more.

....this

[No coincidences]

....this

Unreal.

[SteveRyan]

That's your big, long, drawn-out insight that everyone was missing? Generic trend stats that have absolutely nothing to do with this particular matchup?

Wow.

Houston is a PK to +2 here because they're a better team than the Colts and they're at home. Period. The only reason they're not -4 or -5 here is because of their struggles so far this season, and the fact that the Colts have two marquee wins.

This isn't rocket science.

I'll assume that was a typo.

And yes, not one person mentioned or took into consideration that both of these teams are on a bye. One person says "Houston is off a bye and blah blah blah" while another person says "Indy is off a bye blah blah blah" but nobody put the two together or seemed to think that anything of it. It's like nobody noticed.

Also, it has EVERYTHING to do with this match up. Do you honestly think that the 5-2 Colts averaging 28 points per game are the real underdogs here against the struggling Houston 2-5 team who hasn't cracked 20 points since week 2? The only reason why Indianapolis isn't -4 or -5 is because both teams are coming off a bye.

Of course, to you it means nothing, which also tells me how clueless you are about what vegas odds makers actually do when they sit down and cap games.

[Barnes & Whine]

Bla bla blah blah blah.

Here's the best advice I can give you on this one:

DON'T waste your time trying to handicap these stupid NFL games.

Pass on every game

First you find out who the public is on. Then you find out the touts are touting a certain game so you think it is the sharpest side when actually the touts are touting the public play. Was it the public play before the touts or did the touts make it the squarest play on the board because they are on the other side?? Every week no one has a fukin clue in NFL. It is the most unbettable of all sports because it is the biggest and most bet. I have yet to see consistent winners in NFL. Every pick is wrong. No one wins. If they claim they do they are lying. Im serious....really.

College is much easier. Almost every favorite won and covered yesterday in CFB.

NFL is a complete joke and complete mind penetrate. Bet the over in every night game and be done with it. Complete waste of fukin time and money.

you go with the public you lose

You go against them you have to bet the worst team and who want to bet on shitty teams week in and week out

[Barnes & Whine]

Let me just give you an example.

Everyone thinks the Titans are a great pick this week.

Let me tell you something. Vegas knows what the touts percieve as sharp. Tout perception has nearly become public perception.

Titans will lose and Rams will win outright. Watch.

Now you have to ask yourself, am I a tout, or am I truly sharp, because the minute I become a tout I am the public.....really that is how it is.....


really.

[Barnes & Whine]

Houston is shit this year but I have no idea who wins this matchup.

[eagle8999]

This feels just like when the colts went to sd ealier this year they begging you to take them

[k13]

Colts dogs now.

Hope they get their ass beat.

[rcjiii]

Anyone have a play on the total?

Line has been dropping all week.

[Tboonepickem]

This has to be the funniest thread in weeks

[djmano]

Lol the real mind f*ck is this thread its giving me a headache

[YOUNGBUCK]

this is by far the stupidest shit i ever heard, in fairness ive heard it before so you aint the 1st but this train of thought is beyond ignorant and if this is how i capped gms i would find a new hobby. maybe colts win, maybe they lose but it has nothing to do with this gibberish.. i got news for you "the big boys" dont bet games based on the shit you saying, they actually cap gms with numbers and angles, make their line and play accordingly.. a line is just a line, and books dont make a line 6 points off like you claiming for a sunday night gm with a ton of action to try and trick anyone cause it would get them buried (of coarse they never gotta worry bout that when they have cats betting gms calling them traps, reverse traps, triple dipper super duper double reverse traps, or any other penetrating nonsense).. if i play hou it will be because of the plenty of reasons i gave as to why i dont feel like indy is nearly the play you seem to think cause you clearly dont understand the nfl..great job, 22 post in and already clear what you say is meaningless..

Hahahah I was gonna say this thank god u did

[Eddy Munny]

Texans were easy money. It's amazing what a team can do when they don't have Schaub throwing touchdown passes to the other team.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Houston is the better team and will win this game. It's been that way all year, why would it change now?

Like I said...learn the game and THEN talk.

[NittanyLionsFan]

The Houston Texans are the best team in the AFC not named the Denver Broncos, and the Broncos won't win the conference....so in my eyes the Texans are the favorite right now.

There's a reason the Texans are the only team to beat the Chiefs this year. There's a reason the Texans DO NOT lose games. There's a reason the Texans DO NOT give up points. The Texans are the best NFL team to grace this earth since the 1983 Oakland Raiders.

[Barnes & Whine]

Houston is shit this year but I have no idea who wins this matchup.

See, I told you they are shit.

[Barnes & Whine]

Like I said...learn the game and THEN talk.

Omg dude. You are like Bill Murray in the Man who knew too little or Steve Carrell in Get Smart.

[Barnes & Whine]

Houston blows! We knew this!

[tokio]

Bad teams just find ways to lose. Up 18 at the half and lose by 3. Kubiak has gotta be like "WTF we lost?" Not to mention the same thing happened in Seattle with TB. Pathetic teams.

[Potentate]

Thanks for all the capping discussion everyone! So now that the game is over, I finally know why this was such a pick 'em. Basically because it really could have gone either way. No deception in the line at all. Both teams had everything they needed to win the game, and both had some issues to compensate for. Not having Wayne really hurt the Colts offense for about three quarters. Home field advantage, having Foster/Tate, and major impact by Keenum really helped the Texans.

For me it all came down to quarterback play. I learned earlier this year that it can be unwise to bet against Luck. He's seriously something else. I was down big over the last few days and my chase pick on the Colts hit, so I'm stoked, but I can't even credit my "better QB" angle. For all intents and purposes, Keenum came through.

How many field goals did that dude miss?

Best wishes to Kubiak, hope everything's OK.

[SteveRyan]

The Houston Texans are the best team in the AFC not named the Denver Broncos, and the Broncos won't win the conference....so in my eyes the Texans are the favorite right now.

There's a reason the Texans are the only team to beat the Chiefs this year. There's a reason the Texans DO NOT lose games. There's a reason the Texans DO NOT give up points. The Texans are the best NFL team to grace this earth since the 1983 Oakland Raiders.