Interesting thought on point totals

[mcgeezer1883]

I read somewhere that when a opening total crosses a number that can be divided by 7 or 10 to produce an whole number (meaning no decimals), then it becomes a key indicator on which side of the total you should play because that line shows to be inflated to attract square play


for example, total opens at 48.5 and crosses 49 to 49.5 .

49 / 7 =7

49.5 / 7 or 10 = 7.07 or 4.95

this indicator is similar to crossing 3 and 7 ATS

in this example, playing the under would be proper.

does anyone have more info on this?

[jezerp]

sounds interesting

[mcgeezer1883]

I'm going to start making small plays on totals where I see this and we will keep track on the thread to see if anything comes of it short term to make it worthwhile going for the long haul

right now one game that stands out is Tampa Bay/Atlanta

started at 41.5 and now at bookmaker it's 43.5, it crossed 42 and has made a 2 point jump to inflate the total

42/7= 6

looks like an under play....make this one the first selection



another game to watch is Baltimore/pitt
started at 40 now at 41...if it goes to 42.5 Ill make that play also

[ksnooksk]

So, basically 33, 36, 42, 45,46, 49, and 56. Interesting.

[mcgeezer1883]

So, basically 33, 36, 42, 45,46, 49, and 56. Interesting.

Right = 30, 35, 40, 42, 49, 56, 60, 63, 70

this only applies to NFL

numbers you mentioned (33,36, etc) when divided by 7 or 10 don't make a whole number.

[mcgeezer1883]

Another game just met the criteria for an over play

Bears/skins started at 51, moved down across 50 (50/10=5) to 49.5

So right now we have two games that meet the criteria

TB/ATL under 43.5
CHI/WAS over 49.5

DEN/IND also is one to watch...opened at 56.5, if it moves lower then 56, consider a play (but...you know manning, so tread lightly with this one if it crosses 56)

[ksnooksk]

Right = 30, 35, 40, 42, 49, 56, 60, 63, 70

this only applies to NFL

numbers you mentioned (33,36, etc) when divided by 7 or 10 don't make a whole number.

My bad. I was stuck thinking of divisbles by 3.

[Noleafclover]

Is there more insight here than that multiples of 7 are key numbers? Sounds like the rest of your system is just fading the market.

And if key numbers are news to you, you should prolly not be betting totals yet. Do it on paper first, its always a good idea, I bet on paper for 2 years, and while its sad I could have made money, I've learned a lot and gained a lot of confidence. Some of the swings might have destroyed me mentally and made me tilt, as well.

[steel26]

This thread is very interesting. Please, do keep up the research and keep posting.

[steel26]

One more thiing to add. How do you know which way to go? over/under

[mcgeezer1883]

Guys....FYI, I didn't come up with this. I simply read it somewhere. These are my assumptions only


The average point differential between teams during games is 3,7,and 10 pts

numbers that can be divided by 7 and 10 are also very common point totals
( ex-40,42,49)



The key is to pick against the movement on the total.

the strongest movement is when a number moves past both 49 and 50

steel26, to answer your question ill give you an example

Tennesee/Seattle last week opened at 40...moved past 42 to 42.5

42 can be divided by 7 to create a whole number.

once it crossed 42, the play was under because it moved up significantly to inflate value on the over and crossed a key number.

final score
seattle-20
tenneseee-13




I'm just now starting to test it out.....nothing of course is infallible, but any edge is significant

i already posted two plays that meet the criteria so we will see how it pans out for the first week.

[jezerp]

Keep tracking it

[Filmoz]

Would be interesting to track your results. Maybe I just haven't had my coffee yet, but if I am reading this correctly aren't you advocating the square play? i.e. a number moves up a couple points and you take the under, a number moves down and you take the over. Obviously you are getting advantageous number if you are determined to bet that side of it, but the conventional wisdom tends to be that if the number is moving one way, the sharper side is the side that is getting harder to cover with the movement. How many times have you seen a number move severely in one direction and then cover with ease, i.e. total moves from 48.5 to 51.5 and the final result is a 66 point game, or total moves from 43.5 to 41.5, and the game ends 13-3 or something like that.

[Noleafclover]

Tennesee/Seattle last week opened at 40...moved past 42 to 42.5

42 can be divided by 7 to create a whole number.

once it crossed 42, the play was under because it moved up significantly to inflate value on the over and crossed a key number.

final score
seattle-20
tenneseee-13

Use your brain, even the most optimistic of over-backers couldn't dream this would be a 0-field goal game, so 42 is not a key number. There were at least 4 unless there was a botched extra point. 41 arguably was the key number. It's important you realize this if you're trying to bet based off passing key numbers, you need to estimate what you roughly expect the touchdown-field goal breakdown to be.

[Allen24]

Hey it makes sense to me lol i followed and took the over on the redskins vs bears game and it looks great!!!!

[mcgeezer1883]

1-1 so far

WAS/CHI covered over easy
TB/ATL was a little close but still a loser.

ill continue to keep track of line movements that meet this criteria and post anything I see as a play

[mcgeezer1883]

Would be interesting to track your results. Maybe I just haven't had my coffee yet, but if I am reading this correctly aren't you advocating the square play? i.e. a number moves up a couple points and you take the under, a number moves down and you take the over. Obviously you are getting advantageous number if you are determined to bet that side of it, but the conventional wisdom tends to be that if the number is moving one way, the sharper side is the side that is getting harder to cover with the movement. How many times have you seen a number move severely in one direction and then cover with ease, i.e. total moves from 48.5 to 51.5 and the final result is a 66 point game, or total moves from 43.5 to 41.5, and the game ends 13-3 or something like that.

Point total movement does not always indicate sharp action....it means one side is getting pounded.

the play is only opposite the movement if it crosses a number that can be divided by 7 or 10

[mcgeezer1883]

Use your brain, even the most optimistic of over-backers couldn't dream this would be a 0-field goal game, so 42 is not a key number. There were at least 4 unless there was a botched extra point. 41 arguably was the key number. It's important you realize this if you're trying to bet based off passing key numbers, you need to estimate what you roughly expect the touchdown-field goal breakdown to be.

Your acting like I created this method.

i made it clear that i read about this online on a blog of a professional handicapper and in my very first post, i asked if anyone knew more about it.

im simply keeping track of what I see that fits within the parameters and making small plays accordingly....keyword "small"

You clearly wouldn't be following this thread if it didn't provide some interest to you

[mcgeezer1883]

Game to watch right now is SF/JAX

start at 40.5...is now down to 40

if it drops to 39.5 then the play is over

Also watching DAL/DET at 50.5....if it drops to 49.5 consider a play, and if it drops to 48.5 then it's a solid over play

[mcgeezer1883]

Another one to watch

CAR/TB just crossed to 40.5 on 5dimes and pinnacle. If there is more upward movement and the other books follow suit, this is an under play also. Two pretty sold defenses

not an official play at this time, will post more closer to kickoff when lines move much more

[Noleafclover]

Your acting like I created this method.

i made it clear that i read about this online on a blog of a professional handicapper and in my very first post, i asked if anyone knew more about it.

im simply keeping track of what I see that fits within the parameters and making small plays accordingly....keyword "small"

You clearly wouldn't be following this thread if it didn't provide some interest to you

Just hoping to ignite a spark I guess. Don't like seeing people with blind systems, yours is far from the worst because it's based on logic, but its still the type of thing that makes Vegas money if you refuse to put any thought into it at all. Just ask yourself how many touchdowns/field goals you expect in a game. For example, dallas and detroit are highscoring teams, but once you get around 50 points in a game you can expect at least one of the long drives to be stopped, so its another where I'd say 49 isn't much of a key number. Esp. with how Romo struggled last game. Do like it over myself but would be hesitant to play it if Murray doesn't play... tell me you do look at injuries.

[747planes]

I read somewhere that when a opening total crosses a number that can be divided by 7 or 10 to produce an whole number (meaning no decimals), then it becomes a key indicator on which side of the total you should play because that line shows to be inflated to attract square play


for example, total opens at 48.5 and crosses 49 to 49.5 .

49 / 7 =7

49.5 / 7 or 10 = 7.07 or 4.95

this indicator is similar to crossing 3 and 7 ATS

in this example, playing the under would be proper.

does anyone have more info on this?

this is old news but you don;t side against the line move blindly. if the line move is against the heavy public side, then go with the line move....if you go against it, you will get raped in the butthole long term.

[mcgeezer1883]

The total on TB/CAR has crossed back and forth past 40 twice now.....once to 40.5 and now down to 39.5 again.

ill make a play on over 39.5. A lot of money is going on the fact that both teams play solid D, however that seems to only apply to Carolina's front 7. Glennon seems to be in a groove now and could open up the game quite a bit.

over is also 5-0 in Carolina's last 5 games against NFC south opponents and 4-1 in last 5 matches against the Bucs

[mcgeezer1883]

Now 2-1 with the over on TB/CAR

still keeping an eye on movement and will post any findings

[ksnooksk]

[mtofell]

There's a great ESPN podcast called Behind the Bets where they talk with a Vegas bookmaker. It's every Wednesday and is a must listen for anyone betting sports or even remotely interested.

Yesterday the book maker talked specifically about the NFL o/u and basically said they are scrambling and raising them to keep up with the increased scoring this season. In my non-scientific research and betting this year the overs have been killing it. An over north of 50 was almost unheard of in past years but is becoming almost common this year. I've made a few bucks betting on all the overs that look good but am starting to question it as they books are catching up.

[Okst.BIGPLAYS]

There's a great ESPN podcast called Behind the Bets where they talk with a Vegas bookmaker. It's every Wednesday and is a must listen for anyone betting sports or even remotely interested.

Yesterday the book maker talked specifically about the NFL o/u and basically said they are scrambling and raising them to keep up with the increased scoring this season. In my non-scientific research and betting this year the overs have been killing it. An over north of 50 was almost unheard of in past years but is becoming almost common this year. I've made a few bucks betting on all the overs that look good but am starting to question it as they books are catching up.

Thanks, I will check it out.

[mcgeezer1883]

Buffalo/new Orleans started at 50 and is now down to 48, completely crossing 49

i am slightly Leary about this due to the fact that its in the dome and Buffalo may not put much up to match the onslaught of Brees...but if it drops another half point...I'm confident in another over play on it

"IF"...the line hits 47.5, lets play on the over

[letsgo]

Interesting

[boonie26]

mcgeezer1883,

thanks for introducing this and following through. good luck.

boonie26

[mcgeezer1883]

Alright. Since the books are not moving past 48 at this time, I am going to make a play on Buffalo/New Orleans over 48. If you can get 47.5, then do it. We have had significant downward movement past 49 from the open at 50.

Buffalo is the only other team besides Denver that has scored at least 20 points per game this season. Do not let CJ Spiller being doubtful for this game make you feel Uneasy. Thad Lewis has played just as well is EJ manual And they have two other running backs that Will more than make up for spillers absence if he does not play.

Buffalo is also 5-2 ATS this season, they could end up keeping this close which will push Brees to wing it for extra TD's toward that total

New Orleans is going to come out pissed off this weekend after losing a close one to New England. I can assure you that Jimmy Graham is not going to be shut down like he was previously.

saints play lights out in the dome and will air it out

38-14 saints

OVER 48

lets see if we can make it 3-1

[Red Leg]

Interesting method, good work. I'm with you on the over 48. GL!

[mcgeezer1883]

Please note that NYG/PHI has now passed 50 to 49, could go lower indicating a very strong play.


Lets make this pick #2
OVER 49 - get 48.5 if possible

[mcgeezer1883]

Ill be the first to admit I should have treaded lightly knowing old man Vick had a bad hammy....Barkley isn't going to put up points

12-0 at half...grrr

21-10 NO/BUF at half looking very promising though

[mcgeezer1883]

BUF/NO was solid on the over.....3-2 thus far