I'm going to admit obviously I'm not getting these games correct. I lost one game that killed an eight game parlay yesterday. I lost a 9 game teaser today on the NE Over. For the amount of money i bet i can't seem to make a profitable amount of money. Greed has taken me over. I bet thru 5 dimes as i don't have a ton of money. What's the average size bet and how do i make money? I used to be good at this as one year i won 26,000$ when i didn't own a house and wasn't shutdown by the government. This is really becoming a struggle when i'm betting with pennies. Any advice would be appreciated.
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I suppose I will find out if San Diego -1/2 1st quarter is a good bet. 100$ to win 110$Comment -
I don't know if you like to fade but my guy worlds worst picker is terrible, he has a losing record in every sport, but I will admit sometimes he wins but sometimes he loses, more loses than wins, he's 4-6 today it's a winnerComment -
Originally posted by packer4
where can i find this dude?Comment -
Worlds worst pickerComment -
I'll check it out. I'm just really getting discouraged. I can't make money like I used to by loading up on games I love. Shit's depressing.Originally posted by packer4Comment -
I hear ya I've definitely been there before it's no fun, I love betting to it definitely has it ups and downs, BOL ERICComment -
Reduce # of selections on parlays, till you start having success.
Do you only bet parlays?
Parlays are fun, but they will eat you up, long term.
I'll bet 2nd half's , but rarely will touch a qtr bet. Hard enough to cap a entire game.
About 70% of my bets (% @ risk) are on straight bets. Love live betting when it offers a better # than what was availble and prospects look good. Example, quick score by oppossing team.
I've been betting 30% of my bets on Teasers. Been padding my roll nicely.
ML parlays are a nice tool.
When I get hot I get aggressive, If I cool off, back down, limit parlays and grind back, reducing unit size.
I'm more of flat better.
Fading guys isn't my cup of tea. Seems like a weak strategy, but if it works, getting paid is all that counts. I must admit though, when I see certain people @ SBR on the same side I'm on, well, it makes me uncomfortable.
Bottom line, a lot of this about ego. Learn to cap the games, it's more fun and long term will yield better results.
Easier for me to bet strong with my dollars when I capped the game and think I have a strong edge, matchup, trend, or otherwise.Comment -
Thank you very much for the response. It means a lot that you took the time to write back. I do parlays and teasers mostly because I don't have the money to hit big. I'm greedy. It's something that haunts me all the time. I just can't keep going at the pace i'm going. No reason that I went 14-3 this past Saturday and still didn't win any money. This week NFL i'm already 9-3 and I still haven't seen a return. I'm listening to everything everyone has to say. I take what you have to say to heart and will try to apply it. I have nothing to offer but I can take the little bit I learn here and try to apply it.Originally posted by PivotpointComment -
Remember "Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered".
If you are betting small and for recreation, parlays are fun. Great action for smaller bettor. Vegas almost built on parlay cards and slots. Hint!
You must have major % of weekly wagers on straight bets.
That's a shame if you went 14-3 and didn't get paid.
The answer is front of your eyes. Straight bets and no, not 17.
Be greedy only when hot and playing with "house" money.
Cautious when losing.
You have to have at least a basic sense of money management. All in shit is for fools and degens, maybe looking for that rush?
I don't think I've ever bet more than 10% of my roll on any game. No such thing as sure thing. I usually bet roughly 5%, but, as mentioned, mostly a flat better. I just step up avg wager when I hit different thresholds, step down if balance falls.
I lived in Vegas for a long time. One thing I learned is you can never win with scared money. You start second guessing, bad breaks can come in streaks.Comment -
Ive walked in your shoes....Always betting parlays and teasers (alot of the time 3-5 teamers) because I loved seeing the big dollars that would payout if they hit...it never pays off. I agree with the advice above--70% of your bets should be straight bets. I know its hard to bet $50 and see a payout of $42 but over time your bankroll will build and so will your bets and profit. I turned $50 into $1500 last year just by being consistent. This year Im up about $800. My biggest bet is $130 and my smallest $20.
Bottom line, give up on trying to hit a homerun in one day. It will payoff in the end.Comment -
The key is bankroll u bet based on it. You should never bet EVER over 20% of bankroll and most bets only 3 %. Dont increase the percents increase the amounts of the same percent when ur bankroll grows.Comment -
Thanks for the advice guys. I'll have to comeback and update you on how i'm doing sometime. Good luck the rest of the way.Comment -
Ok. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Bill +7.5 - I think the oddsmakers are giving the Bengals a little to much credit after beating a New England team who hasn't played any stiff competition to date. I like the fact that the Bills play extremely well at home as an underdog.
Pittsburgh +2.5 - Geno Smith may have looked good against the Falcons but this guy is god awful. I have followed him since college and he's just not a good QB. Pittsburgh is #3 against the pass. They are 17-3 ats against rookie QB's. Pittsburgh bounces back with running back Bell having a decent game in his second start.
Minnesota and Panthers Over 44 - These teams will be up and down the field all day.
Vikings scores to date this year:
24-34
30-31
27-31
34-27
Seattle 13.5 - Playing at home against Ryan Fitzpatrick. I'm not sure Fitz puts up 150 yards this week. Look at Lockers passing stats to start the season and he barely broke 130 in passing yards in a few games. This will be a rout.Comment -
First off, I feel your pain brother. I made 150% ROI last year betting 10 point teasers. This year I got burned badly because I overextended myself in week 3. I have been struggling to get back to even, forget a profit. That is the nature of the beast though. Even the world's best card counters experience slumps. It is called variance and it happens to all professional gamblers.
I would get away from the parlays all together, at least for a while. If you must play parlays do it with a tiny amount like $5. Parlays are called sucker bets for a reason. You want some bets with a high probability of winning.
You might want to find someone to tail. Touting services are not all created equal. I got burned badly by the Sports Cash System that you see advertised all over the place on this site. There are a lot of bad ones out there, but I am also starting to find that there are good ones. www.precisionpicks.com is really expensive but they are the real deal. They have the past 5 years of their picks archived. They release their picks to the public right after the game starts so you can watch to see if they are accurate or not. Ray Franklin slumped a bit in the past couple of months but these guys average out at over 58% consistently. Ray Franklin charges $50 per pick. The other Cappers on this site charge $20. You need a sizeable bankroll to make that kind of expense worth it. For most people this is not even close to being reasonable, but if the service works then it is worth paying $2,000 to $5,000 a month for.
There are others you can tail that are not nearly as expensive. I have not followed him closely, but I have always found LT Profits to be a pretty sharp cat. There are others as well. Watch the leader boards in the Beat the Prick contest and tail them. Network with these people and see if they will give you their picks.
I tried Al McMordie from SBR videos at www.bigal.com. His college plays did not do so well this week but he crushed the NFL this week at 7-2. The week before his college plays did really well. I am also interested to check out www.offshoreinsiders.com.
There is absolutely nothing wrong with reaching out to others for help. Only fools believe they must do it all themselves. This is about making money. Use every resource that is available to you. Guard your money like your life depends on it. Stop making high risk parlays. I know they are tempting with the big win ratios, but winning several straight bets in a row and compounding your winnings will have the same effect over time with much less risk.
I am still learning myself and have a long ways to go, but that is the best advice I can give.Comment -
bills are starting practice squad qb thadius lewis.. not saying cincy a great team to lay those kind of points on the road with but that why the line is so high, very little to do with cincy beating pats..Originally posted by Eric22174Comment -
My plays have struggled this year so I will tell you to take my opinion with a grain of salt.
My 10 point teaser play this week is:
Giants/Bears over 37
Seahawks -3.5
Saints +12.5
Joe Duffy recommeded the Bears over on the video. I looked into it and decided it would be a good total to tease. The Giants are a mess. The Bears will score against the Giants D which means Eli must keep pace to keep them in the game. One of two things will happen, he will either connect with Victor Cruz and score points, or he will connect with the ball hawking Bears defense and they will score points. Either way I see this game sailing over the teased total of 37.
The Seahawks are at home and the Titans will be playing with backup QB Fitzpaterick. The Seahawks have been brutal at home. I would be shocked if they do not win this game by at least a touchdown. The Titans defense is good but so are the Seahawks. The Seahawks have more weapons on offense and I think that will be the deciding factor in this game.
The Saints are playing the Patriots in Gillette. History says the Patriots don't lose two in a row. History also says that Tom Brady scores a touchdown in every game but that did not happen last week. This is not the same Patriots team of years gone by. They are struggling on offense. They lost Wilfork on defense. Kelly got hurt in the Bengals game. The patriots defense played really well but without those two players it could open up the run game for the Saints. If that happens the Pats will get crucified. The key difference in this game is that Drew Brees has plenty of weapons while Brady is struggling to get any kind of chemistry going. I think the Saints will win this game straight up. If the Pats do win I think the Saints will keep it close and be in it to the end. For that reason I think the teased spread of Saints +12.5 is a gift. I can not for the life of me understand how the Patriots are not underdogs in this game.Comment -
Yeah......That's a great point.Originally posted by 2daBankComment -
Originally posted by arpeggiomeister
Wow......I really like what you had to say. I'll check this stuff out. I'm glad I started this thread. I felt as if I was at a dead end but I see this isn't just happening to me.Comment -
Great points. Saints will win as Brees threw 5 td's the last time these teams faced each other. Patriots haven't played anyone to date.Originally posted by arpeggiomeisterComment -
dont bet 8 team parlaysComment
