fair enough, i agree cincy one of better teams and browns beat a terrible team..certainly wouldnt shock me if cincy beat them down, even last week while browns were safely covering most the gm i always felt a little uncomfortable cause hoyer a pick waiting to happen..i guess the question is whether they continue to play like they getting disrespected all to hell or they over that and just play like a shitbag team with a solid d and couple weapons that the qb cant find?
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Adding
2-TM / 6-PT
IND-1.5 / NE+8.5-120 | BET DSI | 1 UNIT
Seems obvious w/ IND. Gronk upgraded to probable, I think this +2.5 is as good as it's going to get and both these games are teaser-only for me. Using this teaser on BetDSI as I just got the deposit sorted out. Basically had to send them my first born to be able to use the money I deposited. Hit a huge loop hole in the process and we'll see how long it takes for them to figure out that I deposited money, then they refunded the full amount, but still left me my $300 free play. Only squares don't play with house money haha.Comment -
Adding:
SF/STL 1ST HALF UNDER 21 | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITSComment -
STL+3.5-105 on Bovada looks pretty juicy, but I think we already got that angle covered in the under.
Line moves with PIT, KC, CIN, BUF, ARI, NYJ agree with our sides so far. I don't see any of these reversing except BUF could close +3.5 and KC could close back on the 4. Otherwise I think we got a lot of value on these numbers.
CHI unbelievably is at +3-110 and MIA we coulda waited on a little longer as Bovada has it at 7-115. I can't imagine this closing MIA+7-110, but we probably lost 15 cents of value on each game. Guess I underestimated how much the public likes NO and how slow they been on coming around to MIA.Comment -
the masses arnt driving that saints line to 7 bro... plenty of sharp money on saints at less than a td at home.. bears gm stinks, im scared to play them cause they daring ya to. plus i really like the over anyway.Comment -
I believe it, but public is 75% on NO too and I thought we would get resistance at +7 w/ sharps on that side at that number. Was too hasty in taking MIA as I think if there is money on that side, it will coming in when line is firmly at +7-110. Line closes -6.5 or juiced -7 IMO, but I think I'm higher on MIA and down on NO more than most.Comment -
by the time the real masses get involved chasing on mon night i wouldnt be shocked if it hit 7.5 once or twice, that prob where the buyback will be, if it does get there? think this a gm where under 7 you have agreement from most everyone, once it at 7 sharps be done, majority wont be tho..Comment -
LaMichael James and vernon Davis are both playing tonight. I said earlier I thought James should be a part of their offense tonight and it looks like he will ... they need as many pass-catchers on the field as possible. Rams without Saffold again means Bradford should be getting the ball out quick and some sacks should put them out of position to convert.
Still liking the first half under, I think this game is played conservatively for the most part. Lots of running and quick-hitter throws.
Below is Bradford's pass-chart from the Dallas game. Red is incomplete, blue is complete:
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i usually have a decent idea on line moves but i gotta say balty falling under a fg some places is astounding to me...bills another line you did good with, not gonna lie tho im seriously considering balty under 3..Comment -
Do you like the Seahawks this week? Hou looks averageComment -
Not this week so much. They got their LT out, RT is hampered with a knee and might be questionable coming into this. LG is sliding to LT to cover down. RT's backups are 2 rookie UDFA and I think they signed 2 guys off the street this week. Doesn't bode well going against Wade Phillips and that front 7.
It's hard for me though to bet against that defense. Their pass-rush looks criminal now with Avril and Bennett there this year, and now having Clemons back, with Irvin coming back Week 5. Betting against Seattle to me is kinda like betting against the Broncos. On another note, I won't be betting PHI this week, though I thought I would earlier in the week for this exact reason.Comment -
It looks like only BookMaker/BetDSI went to -2.5 and they are on the move back to 3. Bovada still odd man out at a +3.5-120. If the SBR Consensus is to believed it wasn't money at the books they track that moved it that far. That game is pretty balanced w/ low volume. Only thing I can think of is bookmaker/dsi and I think it's also BetCris that is the same book essentially took something big and sharp on BUF. Enough so that they would go completely across the 3.
I don't imagine that most people think about these games in terms of home dogs and road faves.Comment -
Huge line movement on Seattle. They will be playing without starting LT and most likely RT, and C this week. Rookie UDFA vs JJ Watt will be ... interesting this week. Seattle will be a teaser play if this thing gets all the way to SEA+1.5. RW hasn't lost a game by more than a TD since he was at NC State.Comment -
King Dunlap likely not going Sunday per RotoWorld means San Diego might start a more depleted line than Seattle. Was already on the fence, this just put me over as I think SD will regress here. Rivers can't keep playing like a Pro-Bowler behind no line and with weapons like Eddie Royal:
DAL-1.5-110 | BETDSI | 1 UNITComment -
I know what you're saying, but what SD is doing is simply not sustainable and the numbers I'm going to reference are coming from football outsiders . They have played HOU, PHI, TEN. Their defense ranks 31st in the league, and is equally bad defending the run and the pass. I can understand that after playing PHI and to a degree HOU, so I'll give them a slight pass but still call them mediocre ... maybe 18-20th in the league (they were 18th last year and again have added no one of consequence). Their run game ranks 18th in the league and that seems high. Ryan Mathews running behind what I thought was one of the worst lines in the league to start the year. DJ Fluker is too slow to play OT, and they lost Levitre to FA.
So how is SD playing these games so close? Their Offense ranks 3rd overall and their Pass Offense ranks 3rd in the league. But why? Did they add anyone? No.
Last year they ranked 24th in total offense, 16th in Passing, 28th in rushing. Rivers is completing 70% of his passes. Eddie Royal leads the league in TD receptions. League average 3rd down conversion percentage is about 37.5% which is what SD was doing last year. This year they are 2nd in the league behind DEN, converting at a 52.5% clip. This is simply not real life and this week they are playing without 3 starters on the line, including LT. I'm not high on the Cowboys, but SD has been playing out of their minds and it has to come back to earth at some point.Comment -
you preaching the choir bro, im down with all those numbers and think you might have even left out the stupid high clip sd has converted red zone trips into tds so far this year which clearly unsustainable considering they well above where the best teams typically finish and that the only reason they have stayed in gms they have been trounced in yardage.. i think a lot of what sd has done is a product of playing teams that i feel have been overrated as a whole..Comment -
Yeah that's my angle here, just a regression to the mean for an over-achieving team now missing Dunlap and from what I hear Clary and Rinehart. I can't see them getting any run game going against DAL, which means Rivers is going to have to sustain these numbers to stay in this one. Also I know you don't like short road faves but one of my best trends is at play here:
Road teams that the public is 60-75% on according to TheSpread.com's Public Bets (which uses SportsInsights), who are anywhere between +3.5 and -7 are 264-188, 58.4% ATS in the last 10 years, and never posted a losing year. Right now public is 66% on DAL.
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Awesome. Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson out for the Bengals. Stay away from the CIN if you haven't booked it already. Explains the line move to -3.5Comment -
yea im def not a fan of short road favs, ill play them, i did take bears last week but i have to be overwhelming sure about it, if it iffy at all i tend to er on the side of cation.. im pretty sure about dal and yo uall but have me convinced, still those fukks are hard to trust..Comment -
Sounds good. what number is out there for the TT?Comment -
Alright, final card for this week:
THURSDAY:
W SF/STL 1ST HALF UNDER 21 | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITS
SUNDAY:
BUF+3.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
PIT-1-115 | TOP BET | 2 UNITS
NYJ+4.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
KC-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
CIN-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
DAL-1.5-110 | BETDSI | 1 UNIT
ARI ML +130 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
CHI ML+120 | TOP BET | 2 UNITS
2-TM / 6-PT TEASE -110
ARI+9/CHI+8.5 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS
IND-1.5 / NE+8.5-120 | BET DSI | 1 UNIT
MONDAY:
MIA+7-125 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
15 UNITS in play is 30% of my BR. Probably played too many sides on SUN but BOL.Comment -
gl brother.Comment -
THURSDAY:
W SF/STL 1ST HALF UNDER 21 | WAGER WEB | 1.5 UNITS
SUNDAY:
W BUF+3.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
L PIT-1-115 | TOP BET | 2 UNITS
L NYJ+4.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
W KC-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
L CIN-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
L DAL-1.5-110 | BETDSI | 1 UNIT
W ARI ML +130 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
L CHI ML+120 | TOP BET | 2 UNITS
2-TM / 6-PT TEASE -110
W ARI+9/CHI+8.5 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS
W IND-1.5 / NE+8.5-120 | BET DSI | 1 UNIT
MONDAY:
MIA+7-125 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
6-5, +0 UNITS on the week so far with Monday night to go. Crazy day today and can't believe CHI, PIT, DAL all lost.Comment
