MobFade Week 3 Picks

[MobFade]

No plays yet, but wanted to post some way too early leans before the Week 2 MNF game after looking at the opens:

SD@TEN-3
ARI+7.5@NO
CLE+4.5@MIN
TB@NE-7
NYG@CAR-1.5
STL+4@DAL
DET+2.5@WAS
HOU@BAL+2.5
GB@CIN-PK
ATL@MIA-1
IND+10.5@SF

Just looking at the BetDSI poll, these are almost all non-public sides, so likely a lot of late-week plays. Favorites are:

CLE: Getting Gordon back and finally have someone who can stretch the field should open everything up if Weeden had time to throw. Their O-Line has been one of the biggest disappointments for me this year and it would be the stone cold nuts if Shawn Lauvao came back too. The kid filling in at RG has gotten wrecked last 2 weeks but either way I don't think he could get any worse with 2 starts under his belt. If CLE can't cover here I'm going to stop betting them for a bit until they can show that they can score. If they become the Norv Turner offense that they now have the personnel to be, this team is going to be an ATS cash cow for the next 4 weeks. They have an elite D and it was gut-wrenching seeing them blow the cover weeks 1 and 2.

NE: If they can get one more target back for Brady and it doesn't rain, this is a lock. Freeman is scaring the shit out of me and TB is almost un-bettable IMO until he gets his confidence back and we can stop talking about Mike Glennon starting.

CAR: This line is going to flip and probably close NYG+2.5 or something because Joe Public is going to load up on the G-Men rebound. I am firmly on the "NYG are just an 8-8 team" bandwagon, and Eli cannot carry this team. Too many problems in their back 7 and no run game make this team very beatable. CAR is on the cusp of a breakout with an elite front 7 and Cam running the read-option.

DET: I don't like the Lions, but WAS is still way over-rated. They made the playoffs out of a weak division last year with the league unable to stop RGIII. He doesn't look anywhere near healthy, and certainly isn't running all over the place. WAS has regressed to the dregs of the NFC East until RGIII is mobile, and that means we're looking at probably a 5-win team. Easy to say after 2 losses including a blow-out, but tell me where we saw anything that looked like a capable QB or a competent stop-unit in WAS. The fact that WAS-2.5 is getting crushed by the public is hilarious and I think that might not last if the media piles on the criticism this week.

MIA: Damn MIA is good. I was selling them to start the season with their free-agency spending spree, but they are absolutely stacked on D and their offense has looked really balanced. MIA might be a Top 10 team right now. ATL has Matty Ice to Julio in the GA dome and das it. If it rains in MIA this weekend, this could be a blood-bath. Loading up on MIA and the public looks to be on the other side so I'm going to see if this can get all the way to MIA+3 and then go all-in.

IND+10.5: I was initially surprised by this line as any live dog +10.5 or greater is an auto-bet for me, and I've got IND as the 19th best team in the league. I thought this would open at +7.5, but I'll take Andrew Luck for a shot at AT LEAST the backdoor cover any day of the week.

[MobFade]

Locking this down:

IND+10.5-110 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

2 plays where public bets are split and I'm booking now at these lines:

ARI+8.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
NE-7-115 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT

2 TEAM 6 POINT -110
BAL+8.5 / BUF+7.5 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

ARI I like because they've got a great D that matches up really well against NO. Any offense matches up well against NO's defense.

NE is a free-roll as I think Gronk maybe comes back or they sign a vet. I can't see them going into this game with Edelman as their best target. This bet is really a fade of Freeman and Schiano. Locker room sounds toxic right now and it sounds like Freeman might be done as a Buc. Could definitely see him going to JAX or something if there is any truth to the trade talk for Gabbert or Henne and a draft pick.

Looks like Weeden is unlikely to play Sunday, so if you liked MIN take them now ... I think this game is now a pass for me. When I posted these leans, I didn't expect to be on the other side of the public on pretty much every game. Not necessarily a good thing as the public is actually really good picking road teams when they are 55%-75% on a side.

Looking at public bet %'s which is the best info we have now, CAR and MIA have less than 15% of bets so those will be plays much later in the week. BAL, TEN, and STL with less than 35% are in the same situation. IND, ARI, and NE are 40% or better and we've already booked them. DET is the last remaining team that is about 50% and I'll probably wait until the consensus comes out as I think WAS is still a public team, though I did hear them getting thrown under the bus on PTI so maybe that will prove untrue. Will probably throw them in a teaser with someone like NE.

[BIGSACK]

Do u see any values in chiefs +3.5? What's ur pick on that?

[BIGSACK]

I think the 49 ers is blowing the colts out. 49ers usually bounces back after one of those horrible losses, like last year after the giants and Vikings loss. Colts might cover but the game won't be that close. This colts teams just have too many question marks besides Andrew luck, who might be running for his life all day

[MobFade]

Do u see any values in chiefs +3.5? What's ur pick on that?

Ya I do see value there for sure and I meant to put them in my previous post as another lean. I thought PHI-3 was right, so 25 cents of value. I think KC is the better team, but a short week to prep for an offense like that is the only thing that has me worried. I'll let this sit here as 2/3 of money is on PHI and see how far it goes up. I think they're a snap-play at +4, and likely at +3.5 as well.

CIN opens at +1 hosting GB and public jumped all over GB. Going to let this line get juiced to +3.

[BIGSACK]

I also believe chiefs is the better team think Reid will find a way to beat the eagles since he knows their players extremely well. Also the eagles defense is just horrible, nothing changed much there. Think chiefs with Jamal Charles and an awesome defense will grind out a win

[MobFade]

I also believe chiefs is the better team think Reid will find a way to beat the eagles since he knows their players extremely well. Also the eagles defense is just horrible, nothing changed much there. Think chiefs with Jamal Charles and an awesome defense will grind out a win

That's how I view this game in general. I actually think PHI's defense matches up well against Charles and the run in general ... they have a very underrated front 7 in that respect. They don't have the secondary or pass-rush to get Alex Smith out of rhythm though, and Alex Smith has shown he can be highly efficient. The trends also support that .500 or better road teams cover 60% ATS with only 4-6 days in between games (short week, chart below going back to 2004). Unusually short or long weeks also favor good teams, though I think both of these teams are Top 15.

[Enkhbat]

dude why do you open a new topic every week? just keep one topic that's is easier to follow

[MobFade]

Booking MIA on the news that SJAX will be out. I think the public might over-react and Bovada moved to 3 already. They are usually a good indication of where the line will close at once the post their lines. The line is such that if later in the week it does move across the zero, it will be an excellent teaser leg. I would put 2u on this game as it's probably my favorite play of the week, but won't for specifically that reason. Public still hammering ATL w/ >80% total bets, but I'd expect a sharp hammer drop on this once limits go up mid-week.

MIA-1-110 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS

[MobFade]

dude why do you open a new topic every week? just keep one topic that's is easier to follow

I do it because it's easier to read each week. I had a thread for the last half of the season in 2012 and I think it was more daunting to read. Like reading a book that is full of dated info vs getting a new pamphlet with only relevant info every week.

[MobFade]

Walking into the bear trap, not giving a penetrate:

CHI-2.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT


Chicago looks like a vulnerable over-achiever after 2 close calls at home, PIT looks old and bad but is in prime time at Heinz. Perfect contrarian play but I can't imagine how PIT's offense gets off the ground. I think you throw out the run game w/ a plodding backfield and no push inside after Pouncy is out. You limit Brown and Sanders against a Top 2 CB tandem. You're left with Wheaton who is a total badass but still a rookie in his 3rd game and ..... well, counting on Big Ben to get just it done against a beast CHI front 4.

On the other side, I think Ike showed against AJ Green that he can still dominate 1on1 outside, but they've got 2 capable targets outside of Marshall, plus Forte in both the run/pass game, and an improved O-line.

Squarest play on the card, but too juicy to pass on. This is the TB@NYJ from Week 1, and the NO@TB Week 2 game. It's gotta be due, right?

[MobFade]

Bet %'s are evening out on STL @ DAL and it doesn't look like we're getting to +4.5. Locking this down now:

STL+4-110 | BOvADA | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

In light of the news out of CLE I'm going to play MIN in a tease. Not crossing the 7 yet but you're high if you think it doesn't close there:

2 TEAM / 6 POINT -110
DET+7.5 / MIN-.5

[MobFade]

OK, I'll bite:

MIN-6-110 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

Trend for the MIN play:

Since 2004, teams that enjoy 2.5+ point line movement in their favor and close as the favorite are 121-85, 58.7% ATS

[MobFade]

Adding another unit on MIA for now a 2 unit play:

MIA-1-110 | TOP BET | .5 UNIT
DET+2-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT


I was hoping nobody had seen how bad WAS looked, but I guess they have. 66% of the money on DET after we've milked it for a couple insurance points. DET in the first half might also be a play once those lines are posted. WAS been starting really slow and coming back in garbage time.

Consensus is up for all games. Huge money disparities with NYG, MIN, NE, HOU, SD, GB, MIA, NYJ all with 84% or more of the money on them so far. We're already on MIN, NE, MIA so no worries there. Lets see how far these other lines move, and I feel good about the other sides in all the remaining games if we can get some juicy numbers. CIN already shaping up nicely, looking like it will easily hit +3 and maybe flirty with +3.5. BAL and BUF also flirting w/ +3 and I think they are plays there. TEN I'm liking less and less on -3, but I do like it at -2.5. CAR I'm also liking less with the myriad injuries to their DB's. We'll see how that pans out as we get closer to gameday as this is another line that should be getting closer to +3. It's moved from -1 to -PK but no clue how it stays there with 91% of the money on NYG right now and a really non-juicy number on the other side.

Keep in mind with all these plays, I'll probably stay away and just tease them if they don't quite get there, which I did already with some of them. Most of my plays and leans are number-dependent, so if you can only book it on the other side of a key number .... get on more books to get better numbers. Don't know what else to tell you.

Also I'm booking these numbers at times in the week when I think they will be their best based on the information I had at the time. I expect them to move off the numbers I got them at shortly afterward, which is most of the reason I'm playing them. Kinda hard to tail I guess, but hopefully you either catch them in time or get a better feel for how these things move with public and sharp money at different times of the week.

[MobFade]

Not an official play, but I bet a bunch of ML Parlays that included KC, DET, BAL, CIN, ARI, IND. 15 4-teamers and 1 6-teamer for a total risk of 1 unit. Might lay off the KC game because it's not getting to 3.5-110. Bovada has only offered it to me at -120, and I already have a vested interest in the ML so no reason for anymore sweat just for the sake of sweating in a pretty even game that should be good. Just wanted to post that KC ATS or ML which can be had at +155 now is the lean if you need some degen action like myself.

[MobFade]

Bah, if only Bovada wasn't charging -120 on +3.5. Oh well. KC/PHI went according to plan in the box score sans the sheer number of turnovers. I couldn't watch the game but will re-watch shortly. Just based on number of turnovers I would think PHI is a good bounce-back play @DEN next week, especially if DEN covers against OAK. Might not get movement to -10 as I think public still likes the high-octane PHI offense, but they are -9 right now.

Also vick can't play in the rain because he has tiny hands. I forgot about this tidbit and will include it in the future.

[MobFade]

Adding this for 65% chance of rain and wet field at minimum with the obvious JAX O / SEA D combo and the fact that SEA offense has started this year really slow. Also a chance if this is a blowout, SEA benches some key starters:

JAX@SEA UNDER 41-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

Still waiting on TEN, BAL, CIN, or CAR to get to a nicer number. In the interim, been tracking my picks on an NFL Picks website.

[MobFade]

K, I said earlier in the week if Brady didn't get his weapons back and it was gonna rain I would regret being on the Pats. Well it's the perfect storm so I'm going to semi-hedge with the Under 44. Top Bet still has this up.

TB/NE UNDER 44 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[parlayin]

hey mobfade, just wanted to say thanks for posting. i appreciate reading your well-reasoned thought processes. its the one thread i look for every week

[V4Value]

Really like the Buffalo, Baltimore 6pt teaser. BOL!

[MobFade]

If it gets better, we'll add some more, but i think this is about as far as it gets

CIN+3-110 | TOPBET | 1UNIT

[MobFade]

Thanks man

[MobFade]

Adding JAX/SEA 1st half under

JAX/SEA u21-105 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

Card for this week:

IND+10.5-110 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
MIA-1-110 | TOP BET | 2 UNITS
ARI+8.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
NE-7-115 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
CHI-2.5-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
MIN-6-110 | WAGER WEB | 1 UNIT
STL+4-110 | BOvADA | 1 UNIT
DET+2-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
CIN+3-110 | TOPBET | 1UNIT




2 TEAM 6 POINT -110
BAL+8.5 / BUF+7.5 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
DET+7.5 / MIN-.5


JAX@SEA UNDER 41-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
TB/NE UNDER 44 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT
JAX/SEA 1st Half u21-105 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

[MobFade]

Well I guess I got wrecked by Brian Hoyer, losing both the tease and the side w/ MIN. 4-4 on the morning with a lot in play still this afternoon.

[parlayin]

8-2-1 on your early leans and 6-0 on your favorites from that list. Solid analysis and good read on josh Gordon but who knew hoyer would have that kind of game. Who's rake on your picks site?

[MobFade]

8-2-1 on your early leans and 6-0 on your favorites from that list. Solid analysis and good read on josh Gordon but who knew hoyer would have that kind of game. Who's rake on your picks site?

Ya, definitely left some money on the table not playing BAL, CAR, and TEN because they didn't get all the way to +3-110 or -2.5-110 that I wanted, but that's easy to say in hindsight. Rake is the guy I usually argue football with and you'll only see him on here talking shit and bumping threads that I lose in.

8-6 this week, +3 units with the 2 unit Miami play cashing. Got lucky in some spots, got unlucky in some spots. Not too bad overall. We looked at next week's games without looking at the early lines, and thought a few of them were wayyyy off but we'll see how those have changed now that Week 3 is almost in the books. Be back in a new thread with some leans.