MobFade Week 2 Picks

BIGSACK · 09-13-13, 05:07 PM

Did u have a good first wk?

MobFade · 09-13-13, 11:20 PM

Went 8-8-1

MobFade · 09-14-13, 01:49 AM

Adding:

DEN-4-110 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT
MIN+6-110 | BOvADA | 1 UNIT
TB+3.5-110 | TOP BET | 1 UNIT

The NYG defensive front 4 is supposed to be the strongest unit on that team, yet they only managed 2 sacks on Romo playing behind the Dallas O-line, arguably one of the worst in the NFL (though they did get home a few times as the ball was being thrown). With Amukamara likely not playing, their already bad secondary is now almost non-existent ... something Peyton and his WR corps will capitalize on. DEN O-line is solid and they didn't need much of a run game to hang 49 on Balitmore. Peyton was able to just use this to keep the back 7 of BAL fairly honest. Eli was able to move the ball on DAL, but with question marks still at RB and on the O-line, I'm not sure a defense as good as DEN's will be pushed around by mostly the dink-and-dunk that Eli was forced to throw because of the pressure.

I said yesterday I had a CHI lean in the MIN/CHI game, but with a 65% chance of rain both teams should stick more to the ground and the short-passing game, which is about the only thing Ponder can do well. In what should be a lower scoring game, I think 6 points is too many to be laying for a CHI team that is only slightly above average.

TB a similar situation. 60% chance of thunderstorms favors the rush and Carl Nicks is back in practice. Everyone is down on them after blowing it to the NYJ, and everyone is sure that NO is back to 2011 form. I'm not sold on either, though I am concerned about the Freeman situation. If he has another poor game this week I think it's wait-and-see with his confidence.

MobFade · 09-14-13, 02:19 AM

Also

WAS/GB UNDER 50-115 | BOvADA | 1 UNIT

60% chance of rain again here. RGIII doesn't look healthy enough to open things up with the option yet on a consistent basis. I see both teams finding success with the run game and playing things pretty balanced. This total was a little high to be blindly taking points, so I just grabbed the total instead. 1st half under 24.5 is another play I would consider.

2daBank · 09-14-13, 03:46 AM

solid looking card bro.. really like mia, the car/buf under, and that teaser (assuming fitz plays). like tampa as well but screwed around thinking i could get better number with everyone and their mothers playing the aints and fukkin thing dropped to 3 so now just waiting till gm day hoping aints money comes pouring in and gets it back up..

honestly not sure bout the kc/dal gm. dont think much got proved by either last week, dal has been a strong dog team under garrett i believe but a banged up romo and dez concern me against a solid kc defense and arrowhead used to be one of the tougher places to play and id expect that to become a reality once again..still dal with points tempting, still some work to do on that one..

disagree with minny but hadnt seen the weather report, now that i know this im considering the impact and to be honest while sure maybe it turns it into more of a short passing gm i trust cutlers arm to be able to throw in poor conditions and ponder not so much.. i think i am higher on the bears than most tho and while i dont like to take too much away from week 1 one of the biggest things that stood out to me was the fact bears kept cutler clean vs a very good cincy front 7, not sure the last time cutler had this luxury that some of the other top qbs enjoy on a weekly basis, that and forte looked faster and more explosive than ive seen him in years, and look what bush did to this minny defense!

certainly cant blame you for den, ill prob pass cause im allergic to teams that everyone gonna ride and cant remember last time nyg was dogs at home. no doubt peyton will do his thing but den defense is shorthanded and weak right now as well and nyg may be the only team that has 3 wrs that dont really take much of a backseat to den as cruz/nicks/randle can flat out ball, should be a shootout..

i guess if it raining i understand the under in gb but i dont have the balls for it, im assuming a lot of rg3 issue was mental with him not wanting to step into throws early. pack so scared of the read option they let keap (who is a much better passer) have all day to throw, worried they take a different approach this week and all a sudden rg3 runs all over them..not to mention rodgers will abuse this secondary..but again i guess rain could help your cause of coarse it could also lead to fumbles that lead to points..

all in all think you have a winning sunday...gl

MobFade · 09-14-13, 07:40 AM

Another line looking good:

CIN-6.5-110 | TOP BET | 1.5 UNITS

PIT is getting a lot of points after their train-wreck last week hosting TEN. I thought then that PIT was a bit over-rated and I still think that's the case. Losing Pouncey really unsettles the interior of this O-line, and Foote out on the other side is just another chink in this aging Steelers armor. I can't see them getting their run-game going because they also lost their only potential edge threat in Stephens-Howling. Big Ben looked anything but mobile, getting sacked 5 times by Tennessee. Now you're going up against one of the best front 4's in Football, and I think it's a bloodbath. Plodding backs up the middle, Big Ben looking like he's been eating to make the transition to DT, I think CIN is able to make PIT one-dimensional and sell out to stop the pass.

CIN had a bit of a let-down last week and I don't think they're overrated yet. This is an easy cover if Gio Bernard can get involved in the pass game as I don't think PIT's D can slow CIN down inside or out.

MobFade · 09-14-13, 07:47 AM

1. (1st Half) Under		28.0 -110
San Fran. 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (1st Half)

Also locked this down for 5 Units on Top Bet. I won't count it towards my weekly record as it was an obvious typo, but pretty funny in any case.

MobFade · 09-14-13, 07:51 AM

Attached Files

MobFade · 09-14-13, 07:56 AM

Went ahead and doubled it. 10 units on SF/SEA under 28, 1st half. Again, won't count it, but get on it if you can.

2daBank · 09-14-13, 08:26 AM

mob i would be careful betting into bad lines like that..there a good chance what happens if you win they catch it and dont honor the wager but you can pretty much guarantee if it somehow loses then nothing will ever be said...certainly your decision but ive known of plenty of instances where this is the case. personally i would live chat and tell them they have a bad line up and you bet into it and just cancel now but it your money if you feel like rolling the dice on what essentially turns out to you getting free rolled have at it..

MobFade · 09-14-13, 09:31 AM

Hmmm that's a good point, I'll see if I can cancel this.

BIGSACK · 09-14-13, 10:26 AM

R u shitting me?! how u get the first half on 49ers Seahawks under 28?

BIGSACK · 09-14-13, 10:29 AM

Denver -4 is def the most popular public square bet, the books will get burned if broncos cover, will take the giants.

MobFade · 09-14-13, 11:31 AM

Originally posted by BIGSACK

Denver -4 is def the most popular public square bet, the books will get burned if broncos cover, will take the giants.

According to thespread.com, 62% of bets are on DEN, 38% on NYG, making it the 3rd least "square" play of the week if you use that metric. So square it's sharp? Maybe.

MobFade · 09-14-13, 11:52 AM

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The lines could change tomorrow?! You don't say.

MobFade · 09-14-13, 12:34 PM

Last plays for the night. Still looking at CAR to see if we can get it at 2.5, TEN will be an auto-bet at 10.5-110 if it gets there, STL if it gets to 7-110 and possibly JAX. Just locked down:

CLE+7-120 | BOvADA | 1 UNIT
JAX/OAK OvER 39.5 | BOvADA | 1 UNIT

CLE might get better, but I got scared looking at the consenus and seeing 61% of money on CLE with only 31% of the bets. I think we stood to gain 10 cents, but woulda more likely lost 5 when this closes at 6.5-110. CLE I'm still high on though they're missing Gordon and their interior line wasn't as good as I thought it would be. I like BAL as a team too, but getting a full TD in a game w/ a total around 43? Seems automatic as both teams' offenses are well behind their respective defenses.

With the JAX/OAK total, I just couldn't say no once we got under 40. I see the logic in their offenses being so inept that they can't score points, but I would point out that their defenses are equally worthless. Ineptitude favors the defense, but I don't think you can get under 40 when 2 of the 5 worst defenses in the league are on the field at the same time.

MobFade · 09-15-13, 06:51 AM

That SF/SEA 28 at TopBet is STILL there. They sent me a few e-mails back saying I couldn't take back a bet, so we'll see how this plays out. The fact that they didn't fix it today is beyond insane ... they are a full 5 points off on a first half total.

STL is getting hammered and I'm pissed I didn't take it at the juiced 7, or buy it there from 6.5. This thing has crossed the 5's and is sitting at 4.5 at some books. Going to see if some game-day action can pump it back up to 6.5 and we can get on it at +7-125, but this could close on 5 or 5.5. If that's the case there could be a ML play later.

The CAR line is about as bad as it's going to get at -3-115 and should close -110. Not a chance it closes -3.5-110 so we'll wait it out until before kickoff.

Still looking at the JAX ML as well. Best I can get it is +205 right now but let's see if anything crazy happens. Probably just stay away from this as we're already on the under.

2daBank · 09-15-13, 06:56 AM

that crazy,, i mean if you tell them and they leave it pending far as im concerned they better damn honor it! most would appreciate you telling them.. think at this point some of the ram movement may be besides fact 7 was just to high but news of riddy being banged up pretty bad and julio not exactly healthy.. glad i got them early, was mad at myself for not taking panthers-2.5 but feel ok at -3 -105 i guess considering..

MobFade · 09-15-13, 11:56 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

that crazy,, i mean if you tell them and they leave it pending far as im concerned they better damn honor it! most would appreciate you telling them.. think at this point some of the ram movement may be besides fact 7 was just to high but news of riddy being banged up pretty bad and julio not exactly healthy.. glad i got them early, was mad at myself for not taking panthers-2.5 but feel ok at -3 -105 i guess considering..

Ya, they finally moved to 22.5, but no clue how it was at 28 for so long.

Also, I woke up just now which is about 15 mins prior to kick off and lines have gone WAYYY away from where we wanted them at. JAX from +6 to +4, STL from +6 to +4, and CAR doing them impossible going from -3-115 to closing -3.5-110. Right sides, wrong timing so maybe you guys were able to get better numbers. I'm just gonna stay away and maybe play 2nd halves. BOL

MobFade · 09-15-13, 12:06 PM

Just noticed this line:

SD/PHI OvER 51.5 | WAGERWEB | 1 UNIT

Final Card at early kickoff:
SD/PHI O 51.5
CAR/BUF U 44
GB/WAS U 50
CLE+7-120
JAX/OAK O 39.5
CIN-6.5-110
MIA+3-110
DAL+3-110
DEN-4-110
MIN+6-110
TB+3.5-110

2 TEAM 6 POINT
PHI-1.5 / ARI +7.5

MobFade · 09-15-13, 03:46 PM

4-4 with the teaser being out of play this morning. Carolina blowing it was epic.

MobFade · 09-16-13, 12:02 AM

6-5 with CIN-6.5 to go. Also cashed that Top Bet under

MobFade · 09-16-13, 10:54 PM

7-5 on the week. +2u.