2009-10 Super Bowl odds

[slacker00]

I'm bored. What do you guys think?

Some teams were not included because there was a limit to 21 different poll choices.

[slacker00]

I'll take the Titans & Giants at those odds. They were the top two in the regular season. I like them again next year.

[yisman]

huge odds for some good teams there.

[pimike]

took steelers and chargers.

[slacker00]

huge odds for some good teams there.

The only problem is a 1 year hold on the money until next February.

Most sharp bettors will wait until training camp or preseason to see how any offseason moves shake out or in case of any major injuries during camp. Plus the hold time on the money is cut in half. But yeah, some good values in there.

I like the Eagles at +2200 also. I like the young talent on defense as well as the vets in the secondary. I think if McNabb & Westbrook can stay healthy into the postseason they can do it. My biggest concern is the defensive scheming of supposed guru Jim Johnson. I think the Cards exposed him as a one trick blitz scheming pony. I don't like the Eagles if they end up against a good QB with good WRs in the playoffs. Problem teams for the Eagles include teams like the Pats, Colts, Cards, maybe even the Packers.

[Smogs]

At green bay's odds, i love them to make the playoffs, there schedule looks quite easy, as long as they strengthen the D, i see them going far

[Portlander]

The odds at the greek

Dallas Cowboys +1085
New York Giants +1615
Philadelphia Eagles +1415
San Diego Chargers +1415
Pittsburgh Steelers +1015
Indianapolis Colts +1415
New England Patriots +725
Denver Broncos +2550
Jacksonville Jaguars +2550
Tennesee Titans +2550
Buffalo Bills +3050
Arizona Cardinals +2050
Green Bay Packers +2550
Carolina Panthers +2550
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3050
Seattle Seahawks +4050
New Orleans Saints +1615
Minnesota Vikings +1815
Baltimore Ravens +1615
New York Jets +2050
Chicago Bears +3050
Washington Redskins +3050
Atlanta Falcons +1615
Miami Dolphins +3050

Its interesting that they are not putting up the real long shots. These are from BetUS


Houston Texans +4000
San Francisco 49ers +6000
Cleveland Browns +6000
Oakland Raiders +10000
Cincinnati Bengals +10000
St Louis Rams +10000
Detroit Lions +15000
Kansas City Chiefs +15000

[Portlander]

If one waits until Summer do these lines move around a lot?

[EastsidaProduct]

I'm the only one who voted for carolina. not for nothing even though they're my fav. team. ill pay 50 bux at 12 to 1 to win it all. im more confident this upcoming year with our new defensive coordinator.

[slacker00]

If one waits until Summer do these lines move around a lot?

Yes. I haven't done the math, but it seems like these lines are a lot softer than they get during training camp. I'm not sure if sharp money shapes them or what.


I took the lines in my poll from thegreek. I did notice they didn't have the biggest dogs on there.

I think there's some value in
the Bengals at 100-1, anything's possible with a great QB. Palmer is great, IMHO.
the Texans at 40-1, the team continues to mature and played as good as any playoff team down the stretch. One of my true sleepers for next year.

I'm tempted to consider the Browns at 60-1, they've got enough talent. I just hate Mangini as a coach. Even so, those are some great odds on a capable team.

I keep looking at the Dolphins at 30-1, but I think they overachieved last year. I hate Pennington as a big game QB. But they do have the running game & emerging defense.

[Redchevy]

I'd be leary of the Dolphins. I agree that they over achieved this year and they pretty much escaped without any major injuries to go 11-5. They have some free agent issues to address but most importantly take a look at their opponents next year. They are going to have one brutal schedule. I can see this team going 8-8 next year. Just my .02 on them.

[slacker00]

I'd be leary of the Dolphins. I agree that they over achieved this year and they pretty much escaped without any major injuries to go 11-5. They have some free agent issues to address but most importantly take a look at their opponents next year. They are going to have one brutal schedule. I can see this team going 8-8 next year. Just my .02 on them.

Yep that schedule is insane! Nevermind their division is pretty solid in NE, NYJ, Buff. But they have the AFC & NFC South, which arguably doesn't have a weak team in either division. To top it off they get Pitts & SD. Yuck. I wonder if that schedule is tougher than Pitts was this year. Without looking it up, Miami must have the toughest schedule in 2009. Good luck, fish! haha

They've got some hurdles in free agency, but they do get an extra 2nd rounder in the draft from Washington via the Jason Taylor trade. I trust Parcells better than anyone to navigate these tricky waters in the offseason.

[Skanless1]

seems like good value on SD and Carolina.

[DeluxeLiner]

I picked the Patriots...of course I like the front runner (I picked a team before looking at the odds) Not so sure there is a lot of value there, but I think they are correctly the front runner... I wonder if I could convince a friend to be my bookie (that way my money won't be held and maybe I can get some no juice odds)

[c-rok]

New England, Dallas, Washington and Green Bay.

Those were my picks. Would be surprised if the winner was a team other than these four. Washington just needs a QB and a star WR to step up. Green Bay needs Grant to step up next year, but they really have tons of talent. NE and Dallas are two most loaded teams in the league.

[seaborneq]

Carolina and Colts jump out to me.

[slacker00]

Colts don't jump out at me at all. Has a first year coach ever won a SB?

Salary cap is a huge issue for them. Bad for a team battling depth and age at every position. I anticipate a decline, especially in such a tough division.




I see nobody feels love for AZ. They should win their division again easy. We saw what they can do once they can get into the tournament.

[Dark Horse]

Too early for Super Bowl for me. Just a quick outline.

Non-linear fact:
Of the nine 2007 NFL teams that improved their records by four or more wins from the prior season, only one made it to the playoffs in the 2008 season! And that team, the defending champ NY Giants, was eliminated in the first round.

I would downgrade the teams that improved their records by four or more wins from the previous season, with the possible exception of the Arizona Cardinals, because they can get 5 or 6 wins in their division alone.

Teams that improved by 4 wins or more in 2008 (due for a downgrade in 2009):
Arizona +4
Atlanta +7
Baltimore +7
Carolina +5
Miami +10
New York Jets +5
Pittsburgh +5

Teams that worsened by 4 losses or more in 2008 (due for upgrade):
Cleveland -6
Dallas -4
Detroit -7
Green Bay -8
New England -7
Jacksonville -7
San Diego -4
Seattle -7

[slacker00]

Interesting to see how the lines have moved in one week. People must be pounding the Pats, down to +565. Chargers are a better value with this new line. Jags & Titans are really looking like value bets at that price.

1001 Dallas Cowboys +1215
1002 New York Giants +1015
1003 Philadelphia Eagles +1215
1004 San Diego Chargers +1615
1005 Pittsburgh Steelers +825
1006 Indianapolis Colts +1615
1007 New England Patriots +565
1008 Denver Broncos +3050
1009 Jacksonville Jaguars +3050
1010 Tennesee Titans +2850
1011 Buffalo Bills +4050
1012 Arizona Cardinals +1815
1013 Green Bay Packers +3050
1014 Carolina Panthers +2250
1015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4550
1016 Seattle Seahawks +3250
1017 New Orleans Saints +1615
1018 Minnesota Vikings +1615
1019 Baltimore Ravens +2050
1020 New York Jets +3550
1021 Chicago Bears +3250
1022 Washington Redskins +3250
1023 Atlanta Falcons +1815
1024 Miami Dolphins +4550

[Snevens88]

to all who will listen

remember where u were when u first read this lame little lookin post and how hard u laughed at it... i just have three words for all of you


NEW


ORLEANS


SAINTS

[slacker00]

If the Vikings can pick the right QB, I'm starting to think they've got a solid shot.

Garcia? maybe
Favre? hmmm
Warner? woot
Collins? dynamite
Leftwich? solid
Cassell? ???

[rowdy08]

Cowboys just becuase I'm gettin tired of hearing about this could be the year. I'm from Austin(UT) live in Dallas.

[slacker00]

Cowboys just becuase I'm gettin tired of hearing about this could be the year. I'm from Austin(UT) live in Dallas.

I feel for ya. I used to be a Cowboys fan during the Landry years, growing up. I stayed a fan through the Jimmy Johnson & Barry Switzer years but became increasingly disenchanted with Jerry Jones. I renounced my Cowboys fanhood immediately after the Steelers lost to the Cowboys in Super Bowl XXX. In my heart, I probably renounced a year prior when Switzer somehow found a way to lose to the 49ers in the NFC championship game, with what I still think was the most talented NFL team in league history. As predicted, the Cowboys did a slow spiral down the toilet as Jerry Jones drove the franchise into the ground. Parcells almost brought it back, but there are still too many Jerry Jones fingerprints on this team weighing it down to win a playoff game.

Even so, this is a very talented team. Next year is the best chance going forward as the Parcells drafted talent slowly trickles off the team. Owens needs to be cut, bottom line. He drops too many balls and is a distraction. Otherwise, there is plenty of talent on defense, there is zero reason why they can't be championship calibre. Romo is plenty good enough to lead a team to a Super Bowl win. Even Roy Williams (the WR) can be a legit #1. The RBs are good enough. The O-line consistency is a question for me, but the Steelers had O-line questions all year this year and have a ring to show for it. There is no reason why the Cowboys can't win a Super Bowl. Heck, the odds got better since they first came out, so if they keep climbing to something like +1500, I can start talking about value. The Cowboys have proven to run hot and cold in recent years. They just have to run hot when it matters.

rowdy08, if your in Austin, maybe you could hedge your allegiance towards Houston. I think the Texans are a team on the rise! I've already locked them in as my suprise team in 2009. They should be a fun team to watch as their young talent starts to peak and gel as a team.

[slacker00]

Here's an update of the odds. They haven't changed much in a month.

I'm starting to think the Cowboys look interesting. Without T.O. I like them better.

Jags might be worth a shot at 30-1. They were the darling headed into last season, but got hammered by injuries. Everyone should be back & healthy.

If anyone actually likes T.O. take a flier on Buffalo at 40-1.

1001 Dallas Cowboys +1215
1002 New York Giants +1015
1003 Philadelphia Eagles +1215
1004 San Diego Chargers +1615
1005 Pittsburgh Steelers +845
1006 Indianapolis Colts +1615
1007 New England Patriots +565
1008 Denver Broncos +3050
1009 Jacksonville Jaguars +3050
1010 Tennesee Titans +1650
1011 Buffalo Bills +4050
1012 Arizona Cardinals +1815
1013 Green Bay Packers +3050
1014 Carolina Panthers +2250
1015 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4550
1016 Seattle Seahawks +3250
1017 New Orleans Saints +1615
1018 Minnesota Vikings +1615
1019 Baltimore Ravens +2050
1020 New York Jets +3550
1021 Chicago Bears +3250
1022 Washington Redskins +2250
1023 Atlanta Falcons +1815
1024 Miami Dolphins +4550

[yisman]

these bets are not worth it, if your goal is to maximize profit. Your money is tied up for far too long, earning no interest.

[alittlemoresound]

STEELERS & CHARGERS & maybe new england

take em!

i think the steelers will repeat..... really... they will only get better

[slacker00]

STEELERS & CHARGERS & maybe new england

take em!

i think the steelers will repeat..... really... they will only get better

It's hard to argue against these three teams. They've got all of the ingredients. They've all proven that they are the class of the NFL.

The Chargers might have questions about LT & Merriman, but I think they'll be back this year and as good as ever. LT's clock is ticking and he really needs a ring this year or maybe next year. Maybe he can be a rallying cry for his team, similar to Bettis for the Steelers a few years back and finally get them over the hump. There's no reason why this team can't go all the way.

[gn2056]

The team that I think will have the easiest road, especially with the dismantling of the Bucs is Carolina. I love that team, and have thought they were good enough the last five years, just never quite got it just right. I think they laid an egg being un-properly motivated for the Arizona game, and that is inexcusable but if they win that game I think they go on to win the superbowl last year, as their Defense could have easily handled BEn Rottenburger and their offense when clicking is poetry in motion.

New England and Pittsburgh are always a threat, but nobody repeats. I do like Carolina, I also think this could be the last best chance for San Diego with Rivers emerging, and the return of Marion. I expect Seattle to return to domincance in their division, as it takes very little, so I dont expect a return to the playoffs for Arizona. There as there always is in the NFL will be two unexpected teams jumping in the mix, we just dont know who what I do know is it wont be the Raiders or Broncos.

[yD]

I'll take the Titans & Giants at those odds. They were the top two in the regular season. I like them again next year.

Agreed.(Titans)

Fisher will eventually get his.

[aceofspadesj77]

couldnt you just bet on each team, and with these odds, no matter who wins, you will still make a huge profit? or am i missing on something?

[slacker00]

Too early for Super Bowl for me. Just a quick outline.

Non-linear fact:
Of the nine 2007 NFL teams that improved their records by four or more wins from the prior season, only one made it to the playoffs in the 2008 season! And that team, the defending champ NY Giants, was eliminated in the first round.

I would downgrade the teams that improved their records by four or more wins from the previous season, with the possible exception of the Arizona Cardinals, because they can get 5 or 6 wins in their division alone.

Teams that improved by 4 wins or more in 2008 (due for a downgrade in 2009):
Arizona +4
Atlanta +7
Baltimore +7
Carolina +5
Miami +10
New York Jets +5
Pittsburgh +5

Teams that worsened by 4 losses or more in 2008 (due for upgrade):
Cleveland -6
Dallas -4
Detroit -7
Green Bay -8
New England -7
Jacksonville -7
San Diego -4
Seattle -7

This post is worth a repeat. I reread this post and I agree with Dark Horse more and more the more I think about it.

I'd stay way clear of teams like Carolina, Jets, Miami, Baltimore, Atlanta. I still like Pitts, though, because I never question the heart of a champion. I also am high on Arizona taking another solid run at it next year.

In the other list, the Pats are loading up with dynamite again this year and I expect some explosion from them on all sides of the ball. I think the Packers gotta be in the hunt, but I'm anxious about Ted Thompson's personnel moves, namely letting good DTs walk, as well as the retooling of the defense to a 3-4. Jax should be back with a vengeance once they get their entire team back off IR. SD is a sleeping lion ready to roar with LT, Merriman, Gates healthy. Cowboys have finally unloaded the dead weight of T.O. & the crappy Roy Williams. As for Cleveland, Seattle & Detroit, I see improvement, but they really can't get any worse.

[davewaz]

I like Atlanta with the odds, they should have beat Arizona Ryan will get better and Dimitriov is gonna build them up like the pats... and once again look at the odds!

[Tsoprano]

unload on the Giants

[eidolon]

I'm very surprised that SD has the leading votes...they are a horrible playoff team.

Also, does anyone have the odds for last year at this time of year? (or even before the season began)

[slacker00]

I'm very surprised that SD has the leading votes...they are a horrible playoff team.

Also, does anyone have the odds for last year at this time of year? (or even before the season began)

SD is 3-2 in the last two years. The games they lost were road games against eventual champ Pitts and juggernaut Pats. Both games they were overmatched and were still competitive. I don't know why you think SD is a horrible playoff team.

Odds last year were similar to this year. I think NE, SD, Indy was a bigger favorite. Otherwise somewhat similar. I'm sure you could look it up somewhere.