Originally Posted by 2daBank 
week 5
den/dal ov 55.5 (1.5x)...square me up with den overs, while sure they are inflated i think books prisoners right now as they cant reasonable line these gms where they should be imo, last week i made the number 66.5 and that was low thanx to a garbage time td. i made it slightly lower this week but 64 is my number so once again even with this jacked up line i see a lot of value in the over (1st time in my life i recall having totals that i think are more than a td off!)..opponents pass a lot on both these teams and both these teams like to pass avg right around 40 attempts per gm, maybe kiffen's cover 2 forces den to take a little longer but peyton knows this defense well and will pick it apart, just cant envision broncos not scoring 30+.. romo a gunslinger and i think he and dez will be gm here to try and hang with den for a while anyway, i put dal in the 27-31 range, add that to den and think we talking about another gm that is played in the 60s..playing it now cause cant imagine this doesnt tick over 56..
chi ml +103 (2x)... been waiting to bet this gm all week figuring the line would flip, hopefully im not being to impatient now as maybe it goes up more? either way i feel good with anything plus is great in a gm i am pretty confident that the bears win..
yes bears stumbled last week and the much improve oline got whipped by a incredibly talented defensive front in a very noisy environment..yes saints defense is much improved as i been talking them up more every week but they have no where near the talent up front that det has, they beat you with scheme as ryan does a incredible job using the personal he has and showing teams a lot of looks..
i think tessman's offense is built to deal with this, 1st off saints allow a league worst 5.5 ypc and tressman uses forte as the weapon he is, id expect him to have a monster gm. despite getting beat mono a mono in the dome last week this oline has been coached up wonderfully (coincidentally by saints former oline coach) and the rookies are playing great.. i believe the bears can be successful enough on the ground that it will force saints to give cutler more defined looks as the will have to either continue getting gashed or stop moving guys around. i think the oline is working well as a unit and will be able to pick up the pressures saints bring as again saints guys arnt just lining up and beating your man..if the line can work together and not let open rushers free cutler has some big time mismatches with those 2 big boys on the outside and bennett in the middle, that some serious size saints corners cant handle...
on the other side i mentioned last week how much i felt the bears d has dropped off, they been giving up too many yards per play and #1 wrs have killed them in a few matchups, they still making plays but they allowing teams to move far to easily...they need to get back to a little more bend but dont break and i think they will against the saints, the run gm shouldnt scare them too much as saints not running the ball all that well, saints gonna drop back and pass. the dline has to get some pressure and i think they will at times but brees will get his, the key here is lettign him get his between the 20s and force him to take a lot of plays doing it which i believe bears can. once saints get to the red zone bears hold the adv as they typically one of the better red zone defenses in the league and saints red zone execution has been lacking the majority of the season..
bottom line is saints have never been as good away from home on grass, soldier field isnt exactly the place id wanna be if i had to play on grass, bears coming off a bad loss in a tough place in a gm i expected them to lose. saints coming off doing what they do best and whipping the shit out of someone in the thunderdome monday night, so now of coarse everyone thinks saints so much better than the bears, in superdome they prob are, however this bears offense is a big step up in class compared to what the saints have seen thus far and i expect a d i like to get exposed a little bit here..while bears go back to playing bend but dont break, force some fgs, and maybe even get a turnover..i like bears in a close one 27-23..
