87% system for SB

[Slate]

I found this article at Accu Score, dont know how good they are in picking winners with their system, but this is just statistics

"In 34 of 39 (87%) previous Super Bowls, all you had to do to win your bet was pick the team that would win the game. Forget the spread. It was irrelevant. Now there's a trend worth writing about.
I know there have been 42 Super Bowl games (not 39), but three ended up in pushes and are irrelevant to this discussion.
In 34 of the remaining Super Bowls, the favorites covered 24 times. In ten games, the underdogs not only covered but won straight up, needing no help from the spread. (Remember last year?) That's what you call a pattern!
In fact, the dog has covered and not won the game only five times. That too is a pattern.
So now you know you don't have to spend half a New York minute handicapping the spread. Odds are the spread will have nothing to do with whether you win or lose your bet.
The only catch is you still have to pick the winner. That's not my problem. You take it from here."


So I guess the way to go here is, if you like Pitt you take Pitt minus the points, or if you like Arizona you take Arizona ML.

[Smogs]

Yeh, that was the same with the nfc championship game, the stats point to these games being irrelevant regarding point spreads. I dont even think arizona need the points, they should win in a shootout or lose quite heavily if pitts D is on top form

[Bluehorseshoe]

Isn't that percentage the same as any other NFL game?

[Kindred]

In 33 of the remaining Super Bowls, the favorites covered 24 times. In ten games, the underdogs not only covered but won straight up, needing no help from the spread. (Remember last year?) That's what you call a pattern!

24+10 = 34 not 33

"In 34 of 39 (87%) previous Super Bowls, all you had to do to win your bet was pick the team that would win the game.

What about the other 5, dog lost but covered?

I'm not against taking dog on ML but make sure you are getting a fair price, the points might have more value, especially with all the sqaure money pouring in on the dog ML looking for a big payday. The half point calc might be able to help figure out a fair money line for the doggie

[Slate]

"What about the other 5, dog lost but covered?"

Yes

[slacker00]

So, take a Polish middle, you're saying?

1*Pitts -7 +100
0.6452*AZ ML +210
Guaranteed profit of 0.3548 or 21.6% profit.

[Alpinestars7]

Yeah but if it does happen where pitt wins by like 3 then you lose both bets.....and could be one of those type of games

[spongerat]

isn't the stat that the points matter in only like 15 or 18% of any NFL games? most of the time they don't, not just superbowl

[patsfan2727]

I parlayed NE ML with NYG +10.5 last year.
Looked solid until the last 30 seconds....d'oh!