Pendulum Cycle Theory Experiment; Year 2

[arpeggiomeister]

I have slept on it and came up with a play that I originally was scared of but now I am really starting to like. I am looking at the Dolphins +17.5. I watched the video with Tony George on the tout videos and it s what first started me thinking about this play. Tony is expecting a defensive struggle. If that is the case then +17.5 is golden.

Jets are nasty on defense. Tannehil could be in for a rough day. Dolphins sport a good D as well and Geno Smith is looking just plain awful as of late. I think Wallace can scorch the Jets secondary. Miami has a good chance to win this SU. If not I see a tight ball game.

This will be a very high risk play because I must pull the trigger without knowing for sure if my first teaser covers. I have the Pats at +7. I was on all 3 Thanksgiving day games so the Pats are the final leg. I feel pretty good about my chances. I even considered taking them as the last leg in this teaser. I already have $2,300 riding on them. If I put them in both then I would have over $5,000 on that one game. I was not willing to take that risk.

As it stands I am making a very ballsy move. I will be betting $3,220 to win $1,288. If the Pats win then I will not sweat it because it will be pure profit at risk. If they lose my bankroll drops back to $4,500. At that point $3,220 makes me very nervous. This play will make or break my season.

No matter what happens I have had a fantastic season. I have tried more new ideas this year then I have in the past 5. I have been bit in the ass a few times, but I have also had some really big wins. Hope this weekend gives me a couple more.

[Cause-I-Need-It]

What do you think about O/U 30.5 for the Panthers game @ -400? I'm leaning that or the 49ers game same line.

I can recoup my season losses with a couple big bets.

[arpeggiomeister]

I just place the teaser bet. The MIA line has just made a big move and I got caught in it. I got them at +16.5. The line moved a point when I got in but has moved a full 2.5 points in a matter of minutes. I think sharp money is coming in on the Dolphins. It makes me feel better about this pick. I was scared of it at first but now I am thinking it was a good call. We will know in a few hours. I was also able to get the DEN/KC over 33 instead of 34. I gained a point in the total and lost one in the spread. Hopefully it all evens out and is not a big deal.

[arpeggiomeister]

What do you think about O/U 30.5 for the Panthers game @ -400? I'm leaning that or the 49ers game same line.

I can recoup my season losses with a couple big bets.

That not a strong read for me. I think this could be a defensive struggle. Both teams are built for it. Cam Newton could also explode on them and rain points. 49ers very similar. Both plays scare me because Niners and Panthers are more then comfortable in a low scoring defensive slugfest and they both have the firepower to put up a lot of points if needed.

I would look at the over on Vikings/Bears. The under of JAC is tempting as well as the Jets. I am a teaser player and an unconventional one at that. Not sure I am the best guy for advice on totals or spreads. I do what I do. If my research and ideas can help you then I am happy to share them. I am not a guru though. I do not want to turn out like another Jeff Cadillac. The guy has the look and talks the talk but at the end of the day his picks suck balls. I hope he can turn it around because I really enjoy watching him. At the end of the day I do not want to get called out for giving bad advice, especially if I end up winning on the picks because I teased them by 15 points and someone else used those same picks in a parlay and lost their shirt.

[arpeggiomeister]

Wow the touts had me convinced CHI/MIN was going over. Pretty low scoring so far. Glad I did not bet this one... ...yikes. I feel bad for passing this info on.

[Cause-I-Need-It]

Wow the touts had me convinced CHI/MIN was going over. Pretty low scoring so far. Glad I did not bet this one... ...yikes. I feel bad for passing this info on.

I usually just look for a different POV, I'm a 49ers fan and I live in North Carolina. Didn't want to be too bias.


I teased Football

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina PanthersTotal O 30 -110 for Game (Won) Miami Dolphins +11 -110 for Game (Won)
New England Patriots +4 -110 for Game (Won)

[arpeggiomeister]

Nice win brother!!!

[arpeggiomeister]

I covered on my early teaser. Pats made me nervous for a bit but came through in the second half. My late teaser is off to a smoking start. Perhaps I should have done a parlay for I did not need any extra points on the Broncos, the over, or the Dolphins. I was happy to have the extra points in my pocket because the Broncos game looked like it could have gone south but just like the Patriots they pulled it together in the second half.

It all comes down to the Saints tomorrow. I would hardly call this a gimme, but I have them for +19.5. I feel really good about that spot. If they cover my bankroll officially doubles for the season. You guys are probably sick of me saying that but I just don't tire of it. lol hhahaahahaha This one was extremely hard earned. I have not won yet so I better stop talking in the past tense. I will update again tomorrow with what I hope to be good news.

[arpeggiomeister]

Saints lay an egg!!!! This knocks be back to the starting point all over. I have $92 profit left

After going over the tout videos I independently tracked their records and by far Joe Duffy is the best. I decided to try his service out. Not a great start. He went 2-4 in college hoops last night.

I have a really big 10 point teaser going into this weekend. Joe Duffy is on HOU -3 and the over for Thursday. I like his logic. Kubiak is trying to save his job. The only way he can do that is to push Case Keenum to prove himself as the future QB of the franchise. It worked against NE.

My personal take on the spread is that this is a revenge game for Houston. The Jags embarrassed them at home and I think they will be looking to return the favor. The Texans are by far the more talented team.

I am taking the Chiefs over the Redskins as the final leg. When a good team fails ATS I look for them to bounce back. This looks like a good spot for them to do just that.

HOU +7
HOU over 33.5
KC +7

1,999.20 to win $1,666.

[wolvesguy89]

2 grand on a 2-10 team is pretty ill advised but hopefully it works out for ya man

[arpeggiomeister]

I think you are looking at the wrong things. Did you see them vs. the Pats? They played like a real football team. If they play like that this week the Jags do not stand a chance. The Texans are by far the superior team but they have not been playing up to their potential for most of the year. On the other side of the coin, the Jags have been playing above their skill level lately and are due to regress. This is the perfect spot for it. I think there is tremendous value here.

I would love to tell you that this was my idea but it is not. I bought a month of Joe Duffy's picks. This was his plays, I just turned them into a teaser. I reviewed his logic and I think he is onto something here. I think most people are overlooking this game for the same reason you think this is ill-advised. People are playing for their jobs. There is a lot of value to be had here. We will see what happens.

[wolvesguy89]

I will agree, the Texans looked much better last Sunday, and if they play like that tonight they will at the very worst lose by a small amount. But the Jaguars have looked like an actual football team lately as well, winning 3 of their last 4. I'm totally laying off this game but if I'm playing a 10 point teaser I would've gone Jags +13. But it should be a reasonably close game today.

I see plenty of awesome teaser opportunities this week in what will be my weekly teaser. I took last week off from actually betting, so I'm ready to go. I'm looking at a 4 team 12 point teaser.

Denver PK - This is a no brainer. The broncos will not lose at home to the titans.

San Fran +9.5 This is a much bigger game for the Niners than it is for the Hawks. Seattle coming off a huge win at home yes, but this team is much less impressive on the road. I can see them winning possibly, but not by much. The Niners will bring it.

New Orleans +9 This team is just like the Hawks. Dominant at home, vulnerable on the road. I am not concerned at all with the beating they just took. No shame in getting destroyed in Seattle. Drew Brees at home in primetime is money in the bank. Carolina has played very very well this year, but this is a very tough spot for them.

Chicago +12 I really like this one. Bears came off a tough loss last week and are desperate for a win. The Bears are 3-0 SU this year. This is also a fade of the Cowboys. I don't see them winning their 3rd game in a row. Tony Romo is disastrous in December. I think the Bears win straight up no problem.

I know you like to play an early game teaser and a late game one. All of my plays are 3PM Sunday or later. I just pick the 4 plays I'm most comfortable with for the whole week and roll with it. Good luck to all

[arpeggiomeister]

Covered the over and pushed on the spread. Hope KC comes through for me. Should have bought a half point. A push is better then losing so I guess I can't complain

[wolvesguy89]

You're playing for a push at this point. That's ok though, just play the afternoon games like I am. Great opportunities

[arpeggiomeister]

I have been looking into Joe Duffy's site www.offshoreinsiders.com and so far it looks like he is the real deal. He only had one game last night so the record took a small hit but he is currently 8-7 since Tuesday in all sports. After Monday I should have a better picture. I will keep you guys posted

[arpeggiomeister]

Rather then Chicago I grabbed New England at home vs the Browns in a 12 point teaser. The Pats at home vs the lowly Browns... ...there is no way they lose this one!!!

NE +0.5
DEN pk
DEN over 37

$950 to win $500. After I see how my college plays pan out I may throw more at this.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have put a lot into this one bet. NE has moved so I have them for +2. I have 3 different bets with slightly different lines. I have two different accounts and loaded up on this as money came free from my other bets. I stand to make $1,200 if I win.

[arpeggiomeister]

Definitely needed some toilet paper after the Patriots game. For anyone who does not believe there are fixed games in the NFL that is a prime example of one. I was on the right side of it so I am not complaining but the pass interference all that put the Pats 1rst and goal at the yard line was total bullshit. Browns backers should be pissed. It was a gift for me, but looking at the bigger picture that call was as fishy as they come. I was already conceding defeat and preparing to dig myself out of a hole again!! Then the "Brady Magic" strikes. I have seen too much of this kind of thing this year for it to be coincidence. It was clear who was "supposed" to win that game.

[arpeggiomeister]

Early 12 point teaser:

DEN over 43.5
DEN +2
PHI +7.5

$1,900 to win $1,000.

The Joe Duffy picks have been going well: 15-10. I am still testing the waters with him but am looking to switch to his picks as my main strategy. Will be risking $220 as one unit. I was risking $55 this past week. I have upped that to $110. I am looking to take one final shot at doubling my bankroll with these teasers before I make the switch.

[wolvesguy89]

I don't know about you Arp, or anyone else, but I'm done with this shit. I'm done betting in general. It's stupid. I'm sick of being a degenerate gambler. I'm over it.

[arpeggiomeister]

That one hurt. Back in the red again for the season. I am taking a 10 point teaser this weekend.

SEA +3
CAR pk
KC +5

This is for $1,200 to win $1,000

[arpeggiomeister]

Joe Duffy's picks did horrible this week. After losing my 12 point teaser with the Denver loss the Duffy picks dug the hole really deep. After Saturday my accounts were down over 50%. I took everything I had left and loaded up on the 10 point teaser I mentioned above. I am not back to even but close. I am down roughly $200 as opposed to over $2,500.

This is the 4th miracle play I have pulled off this season. After Saturday I thought my season was over. To come back for a 4th time and be in a position to possibly come out with a profit after all I have been through is a major success. We will see if I can turn a profit in the next 2 weeks.

[arpeggiomeister]

I don't know about you Arp, or anyone else, but I'm done with this shit. I'm done betting in general. It's stupid. I'm sick of being a degenerate gambler. I'm over it.

I hear you. Just remember that you have not truly failed unless you give up. Learn from your mistakes, adapt your approach and try again. That being said, the surest way not to lose money in gambling is not to gamble. Best of luck to you my friend.

[arpeggiomeister]

For anyone interested, my results from the second week with Joe Duffy was an abysmal 14-22. This brings his 2 week record to 29-32. Let's see if he can pull out of it. This week's skid was devastating to my bankroll. My 12 point teaser loss kicked it off but these picks just kept digging me into the hole deeper and deeper. If it were not for my 10 point teaser I would be down over $2,500 right now. That play virtually wiped the slate clean. I am currently down $152. To still be in the game after all the adversity I have faced this season feels pretty good. I hope I can show some kind of profit at the end of all of this, but I can say I have learned more this year then in the last 5 combined.

[wolvesguy89]

Gotta gamble wayyyy more responsibly. I have no one to blame but myself. There's one thing I've Learned from my experience in betting on sports, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A SURE THING. The chargers can beat the broncos by a touchdown when the broncos are favored by 10. It can happen. It's the NFL. The ddifference between the bad teams the average teAms and the good teams is very little. I keep getting away From my own notion that teasers are the best bets you can make in the NFL, because it's so unpredictable. Teasers are INSURANCE. And they must be used accordingly. I feel like in the NFL, there is tremendous value with underdogs, because there's so much parity. So from now on, I'm making a rule for myself.

1) Tease underdogs to +14.5 or higher.
2) Tease favorites to at least +7.5 or higher.

I need to be much stricter, and this guideline will keep me in check.

[wolvesguy89]

Proposed play for Week 16: Panthers +7, Ravens +7.5, Eagles +7. 3 team 10 point teaser. I know I said I wanted to tease to at least 7.5, but even if they lose 7 I can live with a push.

I like this teaser for a few reasons. 1) All three of these teams are at home. 2) All of these teams are in playoff contention, and need to win. You know that all three of these teams are gonna be motivated. 3) They are all teased to 7 or higher. Did I want to take Seattle -10 to Pick Em? You betcha. But this is the NFL, and the Cardinals need to beat the Seahawks. It can happen. I feel as though I'm way better off getting the insurance of having one of my picks possibly lose by a touchdown and not losing the bet. I'm going to wait until tomorrow to place the bet, so hopefully the Panthers and Eagles go down to -2.5 so I can tease them to 7.5

I definitely could see all 3 of these teams winning straight up. I think the very worst case scenario would be either the Panthers or Eagles losing by a touchdown and I would push. Big deal. A push is a HELL of a lot better than losing. Let me know what ya think my man

[arpeggiomeister]

[QUOTE=wolvesguy89;20599326]Proposed play for Week 16: Panthers +7, Ravens +7.5, Eagles +7. 3 team 10 point teaser. I know I said I wanted to tease to at least 7.5, but even if they lose 7 I can live with a push.

I like this teaser for a few reasons. 1) All three of these teams are at home. 2) All of these teams are in playoff contention, and need to win. You know that all three of these teams are gonna be motivated. 3) They are all teased to 7 or higher. Did I want to take Seattle -10 to Pick Em? You betcha. But this is the NFL, and the Cardinals need to beat the Seahawks. It can happen. I feel as though I'm way better off getting the insurance of having one of my picks possibly lose by a touchdown and not losing the bet. I'm going to wait until tomorrow to place the bet, so hopefully the Panthers and Eagles go down to -2.5 so I can tease them to 7.5

I will give you my thoughts. I see the logic in your picks. I generally agree with your leans but the only one I would put money on is Philly.

The Saints are a scary team who does not play so good on the road. This game is for the division though. If there ever was a time to find a way to win on the road this is it. This game could easily go either way. 10 points is not much insurance if Brees gets hot.

I would stay the hell away from Pats/Ravens. If anything I would take the Pats. This has nothing to do with handicapping. It is a conspiracy theory I have concocted. I believe the TV networks want a showdown between the Patriots and the Broncos and they will pull out all the stops to make that happen. How many Pats games have been decided with bogus calls, usually pass interference? The Browns game was the most blatant. That win was bullshit and anyone with a lick of common sense knows it. I am not complaining, I made money on that game... ...but I thought for sure I had lost. The Saints and Broncos were both bullshit wins. One might argue that they had a bad call go against them in Carolina that decided the game. My rebuttal is that these guys do not want to make it too obvious what they are up to. Bad calls must be dealt to both sides.

This game is not at home so the Pats may not have the refs in their pocket. However, the playoff race is coming down to the wire and I am quite certain that I am right about what the Networks are up to. Broncos vs Patriots in the playoffs. They will manipulate any games they need to in order to make this happen.

[arpeggiomeister]

I am putting it all on the line on what many will consider to be a very dangerous play. I am taking a 10 point teaser:

DEN pk
SEA pk
DAL +7

Seattle is a very square play. They are monsterous at home and I expect that to continue vs ARI.

The Broncos is a classic Pendulum Cycle play. They lost to the Chargers and I expect them to rebound here.

The dangerous pick is Dallas. They have a reputation for their December meltdowns. They lost a game to Greenbay that they should have won. Joe Duffy has been fading the Cowboys hard in the last two games and cashed. He is continuing this week.

This is exactly what I look for. Dallas has every reason to win this game. Their playoff hopes ride on winning this game. They have a very talented offense and a banged defense. Both defenses are so bad that I almost took the over instead of the spread. My belief is that the Cowboys are grossly undervalued. You will have the yahoos quoting crap like the Cowboys are 3-167 in December. (gross exaggeration but you get the point.) This play scares the shit out of me but if I shut out all the noise and go with what my system says to do then this is a very strong play. This play will make or break my season.

[wolvesguy89]

Good luck man. I know we're gonna be rooting for each other. Lets make some fukkin money

[ny92mike]

I am putting it all on the line on what many will consider to be a very dangerous play. I am taking a 10 point teaser:

DEN pk
SEA pk
DAL +7

Seattle is a very square play. They are monsterous at home and I expect that to continue vs ARI.

The Broncos is a classic Pendulum Cycle play. They lost to the Chargers and I expect them to rebound here.

The dangerous pick is Dallas. They have a reputation for their December meltdowns. They lost a game to Greenbay that they should have won. Joe Duffy has been fading the Cowboys hard in the last two games and cashed. He is continuing this week.

This is exactly what I look for. Dallas has every reason to win this game. Their playoff hopes ride on winning this game. They have a very talented offense and a banged defense. Both defenses are so bad that I almost took the over instead of the spread. My belief is that the Cowboys are grossly undervalued. You will have the yahoos quoting crap like the Cowboys are 3-167 in December. (gross exaggeration but you get the point.) This play scares the shit out of me but if I shut out all the noise and go with what my system says to do then this is a very strong play. This play will make or break my season.

I like it.

The system I'm using is projecting wins by all three of these teams with high probability wins for both sea and den. The Dallas team, I completely agree with you on the dec. meltdowns. I went against them last week but this week I'm all over them to pull out a win.

GL

[arpeggiomeister]

Cowboys scared me but pulled it out. It all comes down to the Seahawks.

[wolvesguy89]

Well, now I'm done. The Ravens playing a MUST WIN GAME lose by 20 at home. This shit has to be fixed. Has to. I gave it a good effort. My teaser DID MAKE SENSE. I'm ok with losing. I'm at peace. This was it for me

[arpeggiomeister]

Well, this one ended my season. I have had several comebacks this season so I am proud of what I have done but this was not the result I was looking for. I will put out a play for next week. It is inconsequential as far as my record goes for I have all of $152 left. If I play really well I might get back to even in 5 years or so. lol

One should never risk more then they can afford to lose. This was not the outcome I was hoping for but it is one I was prepared for. Good luck to all. Until next year.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have been analyzing the results for this year. I tried to
get away from chase systems because I have read so many times that
they do not work but after I analyzed this year's results I have
confirmed my belief that the NFL is not random. It looks like
it but it is not.





I tried so many things this year that it ended up burning me so I
went back to the basics. I chose to go back to a chase system for an
experiment. I took the 8 teams that I predicted would win their
divisions at the beginning of the year plus two alternates. These
teams were:





AFC: NE, PIT, HOU, DEN





NFC: DAL, GB, NO, SEA





Alternates: SF, BAL





The chase system I am proposing is 5
levels deep. BetDSI has a minimum bet of $1. I start with $1.1 to
win $1 and multiply by 2.1 for each level after:





$1.1

$2.31

$4.85

$10.19

$21.40





The total bankroll would be $39.85 for
an individual team. We are diversifying to 10 different teams so the
total bankroll is $398.50





Houston was a disaster and there is no
way I could have predicted the meltdown year they had so they were a
total loss. Greenbay lost Aaron Rodgers in week 9 so I take the loss
and stop chasing them for the season at that point. I believe you
would have to be a complete idiot to keep chasing them after losing
their star QB.





I calculated a $39.05 profit for the
season for a 9.8% gain. Now this may not be all that exciting. But
even if I stuck it out with Greenbay I would have had a small loss at
the end of the season.





I back tested 5 years and it works
consistently. My smallest gain was 6% ROI for 2009. My largest gain
was in 2010 for a 18.9% gain.






This is not sexy but it is consistent.
I will back test further but naturally people can say I was cherry
picking. That is not the case but I urge you to test this for
yourself.






This is proof that the Pendulum Cycle
Theory works. Sports are not random, they are reactionary. Chasing
is the perfect tool to take advantage of it.






I was swinging for the fences and I
got burned. If I am willing to settle for a smaller return then I
believe this will be very consistent. I am going to back test 10
years. I post my results.

[arpeggiomeister]

Here are the surprise teams for 2013. Just stating the obvious but I am going over the results for the year and it is worth mentioning. Who would have thought at the beginning of the year that the Texans would go 2-14. According to my research the Panthers had done nothing to improve their defense and thus I thought they would not be contenders. I could not have been more wrong. The Washington Redskins returned to earth after their spectacular year last year. The eagles shot way past my expectations this year. The Falcons were #5 in the power rankings on multiple sites at the beginning of the season. They underperformed almost as bad as the Texans. I can not say the Chiefs surprised me. I knew they would be better but I did not know they would do as well as they did. I did think they could have a break out year and break out they did.