2013 NFL System - JM and Modified

[on3]

here is the thread i ran last year: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-modified.html

here is the copy of the final post on last year's thread:

FINAL POST

system record: 6-2
(A: 5-3, B: 1-2, C: 0-2)

mod system record: 7-1 (some players may have had a 8-0 record if they got the best line (+7, bought to +7.5) on the Arizona 'A' that ended up as a series loss)
(A: 5-3, B: 1-2, C: 1-1)

2 other stats I tracked just to have some sort of record for future testing, "D" Bets which is the game after a C bet loss and "AA" bets which is when a potential team has lost 2 SU/2 ATS (or 1 SU/1 ATS for (MOD)), before they become official plays.

Unofficial "D" Bet Record ATS: 3-0
Arizona week 11, Philadelphia week 13, Oakland week 15

Unofficial "AA" Bet Record ATS: 31-18-3
3-1 (week 3, post #52)), 5-0-1 (week 4, post #72), 0-0 (week 5, post #84), 2-3 (week 6, post #106), 2-2-2 (week 7, post #121), 1-1 (week 8, post #140), 1-3 (week 9, post #176), 4-1 (week 10, post #209), 2-4 (week 11, post #223), 6-1 (week 12, post #236), 2-1 (week 13, post #267), 3-1 (week 14, post #282)

last note, there were 18 "AA" losses, and only 16 JM/(MOD) plays. the 2 team difference is due to JM/(MOD) overlapping with bye weeks.

This is a 3 game chase, in which you TAIL the team who has lost 3 games SU and ATS in a row, in hopes that they will cover 1 in 6 games. Games are A, B, C format and a win at any level of A, B, or C counts as a series win.

The Modified +.500 system is 3-game chasing teams who are at or above .500 after they lose 2 games SU and ATS.

I will be posting the plays and keeping track of the records.

Cheers to a good season everyone!

[on3]

while the first system play doesnt come until week 4 at a minimum, there is a play for week 1, and that is fading the previous SB champ on a 3 game chase.

Week 1 -- (A)Denver -8.5

[imotiv8]

Cheers on a better year!

[analyzer]

Checking in...thanks on3 for running.

[J.M. Disciple]

oN3 you ran a labby last year with this chase right? I see the records, but what was the labby results for this system last year?

[Reno Gambler]

G/L

[on3]

oN3 you ran a labby last year with this chase right? I see the records, but what was the labby results for this system last year?

i didnt do this on labby last year. not enough plays.

[hagball52]

while the first system play doesnt come until week 4 at a minimum, there is a play for week 1, and that is fading the previous SB champ on a 3 game chase.

Week 1 -- (A)Denver -8.5

On3, Wouldn't Denver be a money line play because they are the favorite? I don't have JM's pdf but I thought that was his rule, money line on favorites.

[on3]

On3, Wouldn't Denver be a money line play because they are the favorite? I don't have JM's pdf but I thought that was his rule, money line on favorites.

On his PDF he states that the 'fade the superbowl winner' isn't a JM play, but a historical trend that has never lost on a 3 game chase. he has no mention of ML plays until HIS plays start up during week 4 or 5.

[dlunc3]

on3, do you mind me asking why you still play this system? It doesn't appear to be a consistant winner, or am I wrong?

[hagball52]

On his PDF he states that the 'fade the superbowl winner' isn't a JM play, but a historical trend that has never lost on a 3 game chase. he has no mention of ML plays until HIS plays start up during week 4 or 5.

Thanks for clearing that up.

[on3]

on3, do you mind me asking why you still play this system? It doesn't appear to be a consistant winner, or am I wrong?

i dont play the system blindly and no one should. it hasn't proven itself.

i think trends are important, and if you use this system as a tool to identify strong plays then you are doing it right. i have no problem using this system to data mine strong plays. look at the AA bets and the D bets last year, i now have a reference point to backtest and see what can hit over 60%. i have a couple free weekends coming up where i will be able to backtest 3 or 4 seasons and i'll see if anything viable comes of it.

[on3]

since this thread will be pretty dead until the system kicks in. who has some plays for week 1 CFB or NFL?

i have Ole Miss, Penn State, USC

[on3]

i will also be posting at half time of every NFL game for a "fade the middle" system. the rule is simple, anytime a half time presents itself a 10 point middle or greater, you fade the middle.

Example: Denver favored by 7 points, and the O/U is 48 on Thursday. Hypothetical halftime line 28-7 Denver winning. Hypothetical 2h line Den +3, o/u 24. This makes our adjusted full game line Den -18 and o/u 59. Full game spread has an 11 point variance as does the full game o/u. Instead of trying to middle the opening line bet and take Balt -3 and U 24, the system has shown a 59% or higher correlation to fading the middle. The 2h play would be Den +3 and O 24. The winning percentage increases up to a 13 point middle and then slightly decreases, with no data for anything great than 15 points. I will be playing 13 point variances for 2units and all other variances greater than 10 points for 1unit.

[J.M. Disciple]

Book has Den -7.5 (+105) wonder if I should wait closer to game time... Debating labbying the halfs for this system and see how it goes. Lots of action and closing series that way, but could also get heavy lines this way. I'll start with the superbowl fade for my starting series. Not sure what systems I want to choose since this system of fading / following at week 4 has not proven itself yet.

Any tips of good systems to follow for NFL while we wait for NBA? I think I am done with MLB until next season which I will strictly follow filter system.

[Brundle99]

Hi on3 how are you?...can I just check with you if these are the rules for the JM NFL?...

what I have is: (BET MONEYLINE IF YOUR TEAM IS FAVORITE TO WIN. BET SPREAD IF YOUR TEAM IS THE UNDERDOG.).
(BUY ½ A POINT IF THE SPREAD IS +2.5 +3, +6.5 OR +7.)

I'm not sure if there are a few different versions or not...thanks.

[on3]

Hi on3 how are you?...can I just check with you if these are the rules for the JM NFL?...

what I have is: (BET MONEYLINE IF YOUR TEAM IS FAVORITE TO WIN. BET SPREAD IF YOUR TEAM IS THE UNDERDOG.).
(BUY ½ A POINT IF THE SPREAD IS +2.5 +3, +6.5 OR +7.)

I'm not sure if there are a few different versions or not...thanks.

that is correct. however, the "fade superbowl winner" chase is not part of the JM system.

[on3]

Book has Den -7.5 (+105) wonder if I should wait closer to game time... Debating labbying the halfs for this system and see how it goes. Lots of action and closing series that way, but could also get heavy lines this way. I'll start with the superbowl fade for my starting series. Not sure what systems I want to choose since this system of fading / following at week 4 has not proven itself yet.

Any tips of good systems to follow for NFL while we wait for NBA? I think I am done with MLB until next season which I will strictly follow filter system.

Halftime 10+ middles hit over 60%.

[J.M. Disciple]

i will also be posting at half time of every NFL game for a "fade the middle" system. the rule is simple, anytime a half time presents itself a 10 point middle or greater, you fade the middle.

Example: Denver favored by 7 points, and the O/U is 48 on Thursday. Hypothetical halftime line 28-7 Denver winning. Hypothetical 2h line Den +3, o/u 24. This makes our adjusted full game line Den -18 and o/u 59. Full game spread has an 11 point variance as does the full game o/u. Instead of trying to middle the opening line bet and take Balt -3 and U 24, the system has shown a 59% or higher correlation to fading the middle. The 2h play would be Den +3 and O 24. The winning percentage increases up to a 13 point middle and then slightly decreases, with no data for anything great than 15 points. I will be playing 13 point variances for 2units and all other variances greater than 10 points for 1unit.

Trying to understand this a little better. Any time a team is crushing the spread by 10 or more you bet for them? Can you provide a couple more examples. And how did you determine 2h line of +-3?

[on3]

The opportunity arises when either team is crushing the spread, or both teams are crushing the over or dismally playing the under. The +/-3 2h line was hypothetical and was used to illustrate my point.

I'll post during halftime of today's game and you'll get the hang of it once you see it real time.

[on3]

So full game line: DEN -7 and 49
Half time score: 14-17
2h line: DEN -6 and 24.5
Adjusted line: DEN -3 and 55.5
55.5 - 49 = 6.5, o/u doesnt qualify
-7-(-3) = 4, spread doesnt qualify

NO PLAYS FOR 2H

[J.M. Disciple]

the spread is only based on the favorites? I thought maybe because its +7.5 and they are up 17-14 than BAL qualifies as middle? I am confused on which team you choose as the qualify spread for the blow out... favorites, home teams, only overs etc... ??

[on3]

the spread is only based on the favorites? I thought maybe because its +7.5 and they are up 17-14 than BAL qualifies as middle? I am confused on which team you choose as the qualify spread for the blow out... favorites, home teams, only overs etc... ??

Its the same. Bal was +7 FG, and 2H adjusted they are +3. Only a 4 point difference.

[J.M. Disciple]

edit... OK based on 2h line is how you get the 10pt middle system. Starting to get it... Thanks for the help.

[J.M. Disciple]

So full game line: DEN -7 and 49
Half time score: 14-17
2h line: DEN -6 and 24.5
Adjusted line: DEN -3 and 55.5
55.5 - 49 = 6.5, o/u doesnt qualify
-7-(-3) = 4, spread doesnt qualify

NO PLAYS FOR 2H

so to calculate BAL to see if they qualify its +6 [2h line] + 3 amount their up = +9?

If Baltimore was up 21-14 and line was +6 than its +6 [2h] + 7 = +13 so than its a middle bet? and you would follow BAL or fade?

[on3]

so to calculate BAL to see if they qualify its +6 [2h line] + 3 amount their up = +9?

If Baltimore was up 21-14 and line was +6 than its +6 [2h] + 7 = +13 so than its a middle bet? and you would follow BAL or fade?

youre forgetting to adjust for the full game spread. If a team is leading by 3 and then +6 at halftime, then they are +3 for the game, right? The difference between the original spread of +7 and adjusted spread of +3, is only 4 points.

Now lets say Baltimore was up 10 at halftime and the line was +6, then their adjusted spread would be -4. Compare that to the +7 when the game began, that gives us an 11 point difference. In this case, we would bet BAL +6 at the half.

[J.M. Disciple]

Example 1)
NE -10 @ BUFF
17-14 half time score
2h line NE -7
Making them -10
Difference from Game spread -0
NO play

Example 2)
ATL @ NO -3
half time 10-21
half time line NO +3
adjusted line NO -8
PreGame Difference -5
NO play

Example 3)
Sea @ CAR
Half time Score 17-3
Half time line Sea -1/2
Adjusted line Sea -13.5
PREGame -3.5
Difference before game -10
SEA becomes a play -1/2 for 2h?


I hope that is right... Trying to get a good grasp before jumping in.

[on3]

Example 1)
NE -10 @ BUFF
17-14 half time score
2h line NE -7
Making them -10
Difference from Game spread -0
NO play

Example 2)
ATL @ NO -3
half time 10-21
half time line NO +3
adjusted line NO -8
PreGame Difference -5
NO play

Example 3)
Sea @ CAR
Half time Score 17-3
Half time line Sea -1/2
Adjusted line Sea -13.5
PREGame -3.5
Difference before game -10
SEA becomes a play -1/2 for 2h?


I hope that is right... Trying to get a good grasp before jumping in.

correct, except in your SEA example, if SEA is -.5 for 2nd half, theyre adjusted spread is -14.5 and the difference will be 11.

i will also be posting half time plays for the first couple weeks until the system kicks in so you can check the thread and refresh during the half times for updates (i wont do the full calculation because of time restrictions to get your bets in).

[J.M. Disciple]

correct, except in your SEA example, if SEA is -.5 for 2nd half, theyre adjusted spread is -14.5 and the difference will be 11.

i will also be posting half time plays for the first couple weeks until the system kicks in so you can check the thread and refresh during the half times for updates (i wont do the full calculation because of time restrictions to get your bets in).

will be appreciated! I can figure out most of the calcs myself now, but heads up on which ones are plays would be great. Do you think labby will work with these middle bets or best just to flat them? I think it may be a little chaotic trying labby something like this.

[J.M. Disciple]

This middle system only for NFL? Look at UCF in ncaaf today they are up 24-0 at half time and 2nd half line is -11 making it -35 adjusted line and pregame line is -24 so making it -11 middle. That would qualify as a play right? Who back tested this middle system?

[sprasad03]

Is there only 1 play a week?

[analyzer]

Looking forward to these NFL 1/2 time middle plays - sounds intriguing! GL!

[on3]

half time plays coming up...

[on3]

NE/Buf -- NO PLAY
Cin/Chi -- NO PLAY
Mia/Cle -- NO PLAY
Min/Det -- NO PLAY
Oak/Ind -- NO PLAY
Atl/No -- NO PLAY
TB/NYJ -- NO PLAY
Ten/Pit -- YES, UNDER 20
Sea/Car -- YES, UNDER 22
KC/Jax -- YES, KC -2.5

[J.M. Disciple]

Thanks for the middle plays On3. Starting to get the hang of it. I know simple formula, but you get it done fast!