Arbitrage that guarantees return on investment or break even potential

[JuniorAnalyst]

(William Hill) Arizona Cardinals Season Win Totals o5.5 +100
(Just bet) Arizona Cardinals Season Win Totals u5.5 +120


o5.5 bet $200 to win $400
u5.5 bet $200 to win $440


over hits you break even
under hits you win $40 on $400 investment.
thats a 10% return.

[suicidekings]

Fine for a short term investment, but isn't that $400 worth more than $40 in hand than locked up for 6 months?

[JuniorAnalyst]

well if you got 5 Grand you want to invest in stocks or something outside of sports, why not split that on these 2 and earn 10% if the Cards do what they do best.. lose

[suicidekings]

well if you got 5 Grand you want to invest in stocks or something outside of sports, why not split that on these 2 and earn 10% if the Cards do what they do best.. lose

No, I mean if you're any good at this at all, you should be producing a win rate throughout the season that is going to provide you a positive return. So $400 as a component of your larger bankroll would ultimately produce more than $40 for you over the same time frame.

At a 55% win rate, -110 lines, over 100 bets and a 5% unit size (of $400) being $20, you'd make $110.
At a 53% win rate, -110 lines, over 250 bets and a 3% unit size (of $400) being $12, you'd make $51.60.

The second example assumes you're playing both college and pro, with a larger number of games, but a more achievable win rate. If you're getting -105 juice, you'd make more profit. You just need to do more work to get it.

[JuniorAnalyst]

how much of your bankroll doesnt get wagered if you have a $2000 BR and u bet $20 units and u cant lock up $400 long term then your not a winning player cause your losing $1600 or 80units

[suicidekings]

A $20 unit is appropriate for a $400 bankroll. I just used your numbers in the example. Call it $100 on a $2000 roll at 5% (or $60 at 3%). Then make 100/250 bets on college/pro football over the course of 4 months and win at the ratios listed above and the option of locking up your money gives you a net loss when compared to keeping the money in play.

I would take a 2% edge over the course of the season over a 50% chance of a 10% gain every time.