NFL Playoffs [Picks Not Locks]

[ritehook]

A lock is a white blackbird - doesn't exist.

A lock is like Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny - a pleasant fantasy for children, but non-existent in the real world.

I realize that some here post "locks" as a parody on the professional touts. Or simply to emphasize that they are strong on a side or total.

Still, the only locks you should partake are the ones that come with bagels. The best cities to get bagels and lox are New York or Los Angeles. Tho Chi and Philly are also likely.

WILDCARD WEEKEND

[Plays rated 1/2 to 1 1/2 units]

ATLANTA +1 (Arizona) [1/2 unit]

Don't know why the number is shifting now to Arizona. It is, tho, the kid vs the old vet. In the playoffs the vet usually wins. But Ryan looks like a young veteran. I also like Falcons decent sack diffeential, 2nd only to Philly for the wildcard weekend teams. Putting pressure on Kurt, and picking on the medicre 'Zona D, looks like a way to win.

INDIANAPOLIS -1 (San Diego) [1/2 unit]

Chargers looking good, lighting the scoreboard last few games. And they had a ridiculous schedule, playing 5 games this year where five different times they crossed 3 or more time zones (and won only one of those games).

But Indy is also looking good, and I'd look for Peyton to do damage to the SD secondary.

This game is a pick in some places, but for uniformity purposes for this 'cap I use the latest odds from the composite Scores and Odds site.

[Baltimore at Miami, pass. Looks low-scoring, but I ain't gonna study war no more nor play NFL totals. Baltimore could be a surprise team in the playoffs, but rookie qbs in a Super Bowl hardly ever happen.]

PHILADELPHIA -3 (Minnesota) [1 1/2 units]

This looks so strong I get the feeling I'm walking into a trap. But I see no sign of such, so I gotta unleash the max. (Which isn't much, I bet conservatively)

McNabb vs the worst QB in the playoffs. Philly with a very tough pass defense, fine secondary (tho Samuel is questionable to play).

In sacks, Eagles has a huge +23 season long advantage. In Turnover Diffferential a big net plus 10.

Minny has a solid run defense, but laying only 3 I have to go with Eagles.

[ritehook]

Playoffs, Divisional Weekend Jan 10

Bad mistake taking a team on the road (Atlanta) with a rookie HC and a rook QB. Got beat, glad I made it only a half unit.

I know when Chargers won the OTtoss they'd win. I hate that fukkin NFL OT rule, one possession. Unless of course it goes my way. (No, I still don't like it - college changes, NFL is hidebound)

Fortunately, my 1 1/2 unit play (next to largest, which is 2 units, and I'm too conservative, usually, to bet that) won, tho I thought until late in the game that I had been trapped, so lame was Philly in getting thier offense going. Fortunately, Westbrook caught the screen and scampered to the EZ, and the cover was won.

So, up a little bit after the juice.

SATURDAY, JAN 10

TENNESSEE -3 (Baltimore) [1 unit]

Baltimore is one of the NFL's top defensive unit. Ranked at top or near top in almost every defensive category.

These two met in Baltimore back in October. Titans squeezed out a 13-10 win at that time.

Ravens will be tough again, defensively. But Titans are at home now, and the atmosphere in a playoff game is different.

Some of the Baltimore defensive players have been there and done that, and Ray Lewis and a few others were, I think, on the Super Bowl champion team earlier this century.

But, a lot of the players, esp on offense, are virgins in this atmosphere. They won five games last year, and were fortuate last time out to catch a Miami team that had won but a single game in '07.

Titans made the playoffs last year, losing in a low scorer to Chargers, in San Diego., Tennessee ranks top 10 in most D cats.

Key to me is this: the head coach and quarterback of the Ravens are rookies. At home during the season is one thing - being on the road in the playoffs is quite another.

Collins and Fisher are grizzled vets. In fact, HC Jeff Fisher is now the dean of NFL coaches.

And this: Titans are a very, very storng +32 in sack differential, compared to Ravens paltry +1.

Who's going to win that contest, which a few years ago the NFL's sharp analyst Gil Brandt said was one of the playoff keys?

Remember, the QB is a rookie.

Haynesworth and Vanden Bosch, the Titans keys defensive linemen, will play on Saturday, according to Fisher.

I got the -3 at +100, ie, even money bet. It may go down to 2 1/2, but in the playoffs those number 3 open lines tend to hold.

I was also tempted to bet the Under (34.5) here - but promised the Spirit of Mom I wouldn't.

I'm looking at another play or two, back later this week.

[Jmoney]

whats funny but a smart to pick up on is how you (like me) went with Atlanta and when they lost, you said...I knew it. Rookie QB and HC would do me in. Not about to let that happen again with the Ravens huh? I honestly think the Titans are gonna get it done, but the Ravens are just so hard to bet against!
My other "thoughts" at this time to cover would be the Giants and San Diego as well. That Carolina game set at 10 is crazy tough for my brain to process right now ;/

[ritehook]

I won't bet on Carolina at -10.

I still don't know if I'll bet Zona.

I won't bet Chargers. Steeler sshould have beaten them by 8 last time out, but the official made an error in ruling it not an interception. Later, they acknowledged that Pitt did in fact make a legit pick and took it into the EZ. Temps in Steeltown will likely be around 20 at game time. Only time you'll get that in Dago is if you walk into a freezer.

Don't know right now if I'll be on Steelers. Have a a free hour tomorrow morning, will dope it all out then

[ritehook]

Nfl playoff - divisional round - jan 10 & 11

Already posted a one unit play, Tennessee -3.

I will be straight betting the Pittsburgh/San Diego game, but first let me get to the other two. Yep, I have action on all four this coming weekend --- but not because I'm an action hound, just think they all make sense.

The Philly/NYG I'm staying off as regards a straight bet. (But I'll put them in a teaser, see below.)

So, 1ST HALF OF TEASER,
PHILADELPHIA +10

Philly did beat the Giants not long ago in the Meadowlands, to return the loss at Giants hands in Philadelphia earlier in season.

Eagles can win over the Giants, that's a proven. Can they win in the playoffs tho, in New Jersey?

Not if they don't improve their offense over what they showed last week against Minnesota. Predictible, as tho being played by some book: OK, we have to run x number of times vs passing x number of times.

Hell, Reid, take what they give you - there's no formula set in stone. (Tho I think Reid has turned the playcalling over to the off coordinator, forgot his name --- Morningweg?) There was more than a share of luck in Westbrook getting a blocking picket when he took the screen and scampered to the EZ.

I like what the Philly TE and the WR Avant did vs Vikes. As a possession receiver - no speed tho - Avant is a great young comer. Liked him when he was at Michigan too.

Get the ball to them, pick and nibble down the field.

Philly can win, they have a D that matches that of NY. But I'm not convinced enough to play them straight up. Even getting 4 pts.

So --- I have them in a two team teaser. This at most books pays 11-10, like a one team straight bet. Tho I just got them at 5 Dimes at +10 with a second team at even money - bet a unit, win a unit.

And 5 Dimes had the other team, on the tease, at a nice +17. (+16 right now at most other shops.)

The other team - 2nd half of teaser - being

ARIZONA +16

The old fox, Kurt Warner, taking his high powered offense into Charlotte. Zona is among the top five in NFL in most offensive categories. (And, guess what, after the first week of playoffs actually lead the league in DEFENSE!! True, but just jesting by ciitng that. Means nuttin')

OK, facts are facts. Cards played in Eastern Time Zone a big five times this season -- and lost all five games! Futher, they failed to cover the spread four out of those five times. And got a "push" only once.

Guess who they got the push against? Losing by only 4 as a 4 pt dog? Right, at Carolina, who beat Zona by only 4.

Still, 0-4-1 ATS doesn't sound too appetizing.

BUT, consider this counter stat: In the past 10 years teams that have taken 10 points or more (ie, +10 or more postseason dogs) in the NFL Playoffs have covered the number over twice as much as they failed to do so.

I did this quick check about an hour ago, and tho I may be off by a few games, it's generally accurate. And is pretty potent. Happened about 21 times since '98.

Still, I feel better sticking the Cards into a teaser, with Philly. Which I did for one/half unit. If you wish to tail me on this try also to get even money, as I did, and the +17, as I also did, both at Five Dimes. (If you are fading me on this may you rot for ten eternities in some iced-up hell a thousand galaxies from here!)

Back with my other straight play shortly. After I take a dump and re-fuel with a sandwich & soup.

[ritehook]

Final play for divisional weekend, jan 11

Last play for this weekend, Jan 10 and 11.

PITTSBURGH -6 (San Diego) [1 Unit]

I'm inclined to go this way altho I'm a bit uneasy with the 6. (Tho I took it down a free half pt to -5.5 at Skybook, can't believe the disrespect this book still gets, as per the posters poll).

But:

Back in November when Chargers lost by only a point, the temps in Steel City were around 30. When this game goes off late Sunday they could be around 20.

Most Charger players live in San Diego. The temps there rarely go below 50, and when they get into low 50s the players have their maids light the fireplace - brrrrrrr. (Anyone old enough to recall how Cincinnati won the Frost Bowl years ago by leaving open a large entrance at their stadium to give the Charges a huge blast of Arctic air?)

In the November game the Steelers outgained SD, 410 yds to 213.
Roethlesberger went 31-41. Charger pass D went south this year.

Tomlinson may start,but he 's hurting badly and won't be around long. Scatback Spoles will get most of the carries. I think the top-ranked Pitt D will be ready for him.

In the November game the Steelers drew 115 yards in penalties. San Diego only 2 yards penalized. A big difference, and not likely to repeat itself.

SD played four times in Eastern Zone this year, winning only once - tho they did cover the spot twice.

Steelers ranked # 1 in total defense, # 1 in rushing D, # 12 in pass D.

Pittburgh surrendered an average of 237 ypg this season. Chargers 349 Ypg. (Steelers in Nov about evened that out with all their penalties.)

Chargers lost by only one pt in a low-scorer. But in reality they lost by 8: the offiicials later admitted they made an error in ruling that the intercepted lateral that was taken in for a score by Pitt safety Polamanu was an illegal forward pass. It created a small controversy at the time, becuase Steelers won anyway.

But -- it would have added a legit 7 pts to Steelers total.

In SDs favor (as a few Charger fans have reminded me), is that the Chargers are 2-0 in Pittsburgh in the playoffs (tho not in the last 10 years that I could find. They are 0-13 in the regular season in Pittsburgh)

The Roesthlisberger concussion. He will not be cleared to play if he is still suffering any after-effects of that hit.

But, if Leftwich does get the start, while I won't bet the same amount on the Chargers to in effect cancel my bet (excpt I'd lose the vig). But --- I will cut it in half (to a half unit) by betting a half unit on San Diego. I think Ben will start tho.

The Chargers lost a lot of their games by a few points, say the Chargers fans, and are hot as pistols now.

Right. Nothing's impossible.

But I think the great Steel Curtain D, the likely absence or near-abscence of LT, the Charger probs in stopping the pass, the game in cold weather --- gets the Steelers the win and the cover.

I put a unit on it.

[ritehook]

Gee, maybe I am an action freak, because I did have the urge to bet the Under in 3 of these games (not the Carolina/Arizona tussle)

But I did promise Mom I wouldn't, so sought her permission through the astral world. From memory, this was her response (the brain is only half-awake when you squat on the line between this world and the other):

"Bet totals in the NFL playoffs, Ritey? Absolutely not!!! You know how you stunk up NFL totals during the regular season! Do you want now to totally disgrace the family name with totals? Forget it, Junior!"

"But, Ma, it's just a few games and then the season will be over . . ."

"I have spoken, Ritey. A thousand times --- No! Now you'll have to excuse me as all us up here have just received an Armageddon Alert for the latest MidEast crises."

And she was gone in a spirit second.

So, no totals.

[ritehook]

1 and 1 (and no juice) on the straight plays for divisional weekend.

And won the half unit teaser (both teams won outright)

So after two weeks a bit ahead, including juice.

Nice to end it a winner. Circumstances dictate it's time for me to move on. Best of luck to all.