Cheme82 official NFL Playoffs Thread

[Cheme82]

For Saturday's Wild Card games I am playing Arizona on the ML +105 really heavy. This game might be a double digit win by Arizona who finally has Boldin healed after missing 2 weeks with injury. So Warner is going to be at home (where they have won 6 games by an average of 15.5 points) with his 3 1000-yard receivers. Add to that Hightower who is money on the red zone and the fact that Edge came back to rush for 100 yards on the last regular season game and I think Arizona has just too much fire power for Atlanta to stay in this game.

I loved the Falcons this year, and they made me some nice cash this year but they don't have a defense good enough to slow down Arizona. Atlanta is 21st. in the league in pass defense. They allow about 220 ypg, and defending the run they are not good either (25th. allowing 127.5 ypg). I see Hightower and Edge running it up the middle a few times whick will open up play action and Warner just lighting it up through the air.

The same could be said as a game plan for the Falcons. Running it with Turner and then throwing it to White because Arizona is not good on defense either, but the Cardinals can double White and load up on Turner because that's all Atlanta has on offense (they can get away with playing man to man on Jenkins).

Arizona's defense will be fired up for this game, and you saw what they did to Dallas back in October when they broke Romo's finger and the whole Dallas debacle started. They might give the rookie a hard time. Arizona has 3 1000-yard receivers and that's the reason they will run away from Atlanta on this game. Just too many people for the Falcons to cover.

I am also playing Indy -1. San Diego has LT and Gates hurt, they did finish 4-0 and some people call them the hottest team in the playoffs but please go back and check who those victories were against. Manning is playing crazy good right now and they also have revenge on their mind from last year's playoffs so I think they will be ready for this matchup.

Arizona ML +105 35
Indi -1 10
UPDATE: After watching some line movement I am bumping Indi to 20 units.
Good Luck.

YTD
NFL
43-19-1 188.45
Teasers
2-6-1 -46.5
CFB
47-36 100.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[BadBeatBodog]

Please for your sake don't even look at YPG stats. If you are going to use any conventional stats look at YPA.

[MrMonkey]

Gook luck buddy!

With you on both games. Everybody was loving Falcons until last night? Put in Ari+2 early in week and just did Indy pk. Ryan and Comp. has to stop today? Arizona not great but think they really haven't had any motivation for last month. Too much offensive weapons. SD was early inclination, but beating some bad teams last month (Tampa we see now was that) and don't think they can just turn it on. Indy 12-4 more consistant and will mix it up and control clock on a weak SD defense. Manning has been super! One reason just went with them SANDERS!!!

MrMonkey

[ChuteBoxe]

Good luck today man.

[Cheme82]

Thanks guys. Let's hope we cash those two.

[Rixsaw]

Arizona ML? How did you ever capped that? Excellent call.

[Cheme82]

I really thought it would be a double digit win by Arizona, and it was until that late TD by Atlanta. Freaking Indy was 2 yards away from winning that thing and I would have killed my bookie, but at least I picked up some nice cash anyway.

Results: 1-1 +14.75

YTD
NFL
44-20-1 203.20
Teasers
2-6-1 -46.5
CFB
47-36 100.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[Cheme82]

For today's games I will take both favorites and buy them down to 2.5.

Baltimore played a much tougher schedule than Miami and they already beat them down there. Their defense is just too good, Miami had a great turnaround season but this is it for them. McClain and McGahee are a great combination on the ground that takes some pressure off Flacco who has had a great season for a rookie and has a couple of decent receivers in Derrick Mason and Marc Clayton.

The only 2 teams they both played this year were Oakland and Houston. Miami lost to Houston by 1 and won against oakland by 2. Baltimore beat them both by a combined 47 points.

For the late game I like the Eagles in this spot a lot. They are coming off a great performance against Dallas and have momentum going into the playoffs. They got really hot in the last 5 games (4-1 ATS) and McNabb is playing crazy good. The Eagles also play great on the road in the playoffs (4-1 ATS their last 5). Minnesota had a couple of bad games to end the season and they only covered 1 of their last 4 games. They needed a last second field goal to beat the Giants in their last game and the Giants didn't play all their starters and pulled most of the ones that did play. I believe the key to this game is Westbrook and the fact that he is so versatile that they can line him up wide as a split end, as a lone running back, in 2 running back set with Buckhalter, inside as a slot receiver, etc. You have to account for this guy on every play or he will burn you. He is healthy and Buckhalter has stepped up his game and they run a very nice screen with him coming from the backfield.

Minnesota might have to start Frederick Evans at Nose tackle again, and even if Pat Williams plays, he will not be close to 100% and he is the main reason they are first in the league against the run. If Philly has early success with Westbrook then McNabb will pick them appart.

If you want to bet on Minnesota it is good to know you have AP on your side, but also remember you have Jackson at QB and Childress at coach. Philly's run D is 4th. in the league allowing less than 100 ypg. And their pass D is even better at 3rd. in the league.

Bal -2.5 (-120) 35
Philly -2.5 (-120) 35

Good Luck.

YTD
NFL
44-20-1 203.20
Teasers
2-6-1 -46.5
CFB
47-36 100.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[Rixsaw]

Good luck Cheme.

[Cougar Bait]

I'm on Baltimore and Philly too...but I didn't buy the points...I never do...could come back to haunt me I guess...we'll see. Good write-up, and good luck cheme.

[yisman]

if you got -2.5 (-120) on both, those are excellent odds.

[Cheme82]

I actually got -115 because I play at -105 but I post at the usual -110. Thanks guys, let's make some cash today.

[Cheme82]

Ok, so Baltimore gets it done with ease. Now onto Philly for a great day.

[walkingdude2]

Eagles soaring high. Should bring down the Vikings today.

I believe Eagles D contain the purple Jesus.

Mcnabb > Tavaris anyday of the week.

Eagles D slight advantage in Turnovers.

-2.5 is a great line. May buy the hook to make it -3

[Cheme82]

You should, I always buy the hook to either get to 3 or past it. It has worked great for me. About 2 weeks ago it actually won me 2 games (I believe it was Chicago and New Orleans) back to back.

[Cheme82]

So Philly got it done, they made us sweat that one but Westbrook closed the deal on a sweet screen.

Results Today: 2-0 +70

YTD
NFL
46-20-1 273.20
Teasers
2-6-1 -46.5
CFB
47-36 100.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[Cougar Bait]

Great day for us...glad we both cashed...GL throughout the playoff season!

[Cheme82]

Thanks bro, same to you.

[yisman]

nice job, cheme

[Cheme82]

You too bro.

[MrMonkey]

Possible Parley?

Meant possible teaser!!! could not change! Good job my friend! Went 2-1 so I'am happy! Hate to do teasers (haven't done one yet?). Just thinking of possibly SD+12 & Philly+10? What do you think? Can't take Cards, but can Carolina cover 10? Maybe Ravens +3? No rush, it's early in the week. Thanks!

MrMonkey

Thanks Cheme! I wrote it wrong, but Balt+3 was thinking as a straight bet possibility?

[Cheme82]

I love teasers, normally I do one per week on NFL and CFB but this year I haven't hit them at all so I stopped playing them. That being said SD+12 looks good because Pitt probably won't blow anybody out in the playoffs, if they win it will be grinding it out on defense. Philly +10 is probably the second best possible teaser. Balt +3 really doesn't have that much value because you are basically betting that they will win outright, if they lose what are the chances the lose by 1 or 2?

After all that, I will still focus on regular wagers, make 2 and even if you split them you only lose the juice. Teasers are better when you have several games to choose from, and 2-Teamers are ideal for choosing favorites of between 6 and 9 to bring them down to between a pickem and a field goal, there is a lot of value in taking the line through 7 and 3.

[Cheme82]

For the next round of the playoffs I will take Baltimore and a 2-Team Teaser on Carolina and Pittsburgh.

I had Tennessee -1 back in week 5 when Tennessee beat Baltimore on the Road. I was sweating that game and I'll be honest to say that I got very lucky to win that game, probably the 3rd. luckiest cover of the year for me with Philly covering at San Francisco in week 6, and Stanford covering the +24 at home against USC being the 2nd. Luckiest. If any of you saw those games you'll know how lucky those were.

But back to that week 6 meeting at Baltimore. It took a 10 point 4th quarter comeback by Tennessee to win that game. The defining drive was aided by a stupid play by Terrel Suggs who got flagged for hitting Kerry Collins on the helmet. Now the call was a little questionable but that still doesn't excuse Suggs for even giving them the chance to call that. Instead of 4th and 10 from their 20, the Titans had 1st. and 10 from the 35. And we all know what happened after that.

Baltimore's defense dominated the Titans in that game. They held Collins to 17/32 for 163 yards and 1 TD with 2 picks. Chris Johnson had 18 carries for 44 yards and LenDale White had 3 for 4 yards. The Ravens also controlled the clock with almost 10 minutes more in time of possession and they also had 8 more first downs than the Titans.

Both teams had 2 interceptions and no fumbles. One of those interceptions set up Tennessee on Baltimore's 17 yard line and all they could get was a field goal. Baltimore also missed a field goal in that game. McGahee and McClain more than doubled Johnson's and White's yards on the ground and the rookie Flacco held his own against Tennessee's defense.

So why did Tennesee win that game when they were dominated like that? The only thing that kept Tennessee in that game was the return yardage and field position. They got 116 yards on returns (that's more than 1/3 of their total yards in that game). Their return man in that game (DB Chriss Carr) did a heck of a job and actually put them in Baltimore's territory 2 times with his returns. The other 2 times that Tennessee started in Baltimore's territory was on both of the Flacco interceptions. So Tennesee started 4 out of their 10 drives in that game in Baltimore's territory. Baltimore started all of their 10 drives on their own side of the field. And even with all that, Tennesse still needed a 10-point 4th. quarter to win that game.

Now you see why it was such a lucky cover for me?

Baltimore +3.5 (-120) 30
Baltimore ML +135 15

For the Teaser:

Carolina is 8-0 SU, 5-1-2 ATS at home this year. Arizona has only won 2 times in the last 6 years (that's 21 games) on the East Coast. The only games they actually won on the road this year were against San Francisco (week 1), at St. Louis, and at Seattle. The NFC South at home this year is 26-5 SU and 20-10-1 ATS. Also Carolina is 6-1 ATS in the postseason since John Fox took over back in 2002.

Now this 2 teams already played (in Carolina) on week 8, Carolina had to come back at home to beat Arizona. They were actually down by 14 points on the 4th. quarter and ended up winning by 4. Carolina had just beat NO by 23 points the previous week. So I will call that a letdown. They might not cover the 10 but they win at least by 2 Field Goals.

Carolina -4

Pittsburgh also already played San Diego on week 11. 11-10 final score because they didn't count Pollamalu's TD at the end. Was it a TD? It doesn't matter but that TD was the cover on the game. That game was dominated by Pittsburgh even though that didn't show on the final score.

Pittsburgh had the ball for over 13 minutes more than SD on that game. They had 8 more first downs and almost 200 more total yards. Also remember that San Diego didn't beat any playoff teams in the regular season (0-5 SU), and West Coast teams are 3-17 SU this year when playing on the East Coast.

Big Ben is probable and he is still a little coo-coo with that concussion from 2 weeks ago, but he will play. Tomlinson is probably not going to play and if he does he won't get nearly as many carries as they would like him to. Little Darren Sproles will have to get the bulk of the carries against a Pittsburgh defense that hits so hard you really don't want to get up. Also Antonio Gates is hurt so he won't be nearly as effective.

Pittsburgh Picke'm

Final plays for the weekend:

Baltimore +3.5 (-120) 30
Baltimore ML +135 15
2-Team Teaser for 30
Carolina -4
Pittsburgh Pickem

Good Luck.

So far in the playoffs: 3-1 +84.75

YTD
NFL
46-20-1 273.20
Teasers
2-6-1 -46.5
CFB
50-36 145.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[riggs]

Final plays for the weekend:

Baltimore +3.5 (-120) 30
Baltimore ML +135 15
2-Team Teaser for 30
Carolina -4
Pittsburgh Pickem

Good Luck.

With you on all of them Cheme, lets get it!!!

[MrMonkey]

Good luck Cheme! Going with my first teaser with Balt +9 and Carolina -4 (might go 3.5) Any idea with you guys about mixing in a teaser with Balt-Tenn under 40 being one of the plays? Thanks?

MrMonkey

[riggs]

Good luck Cheme! Going with my first teaser with Balt +9 and Carolina -4 (might go 3.5) Any idea with you guys about mixing in a teaser with Balt-Tenn under 40 being one of the plays? Thanks?

MrMonkey

Just added another small one for shits and giggles, and I guess a little insurance!!!


Ticket Number: 84512416 - 1
Accepted Date:Jan 09, 2009 07:59 AM - EST
Graded Date:N/A
Wager Type:Special Teaser 10 pts Teaser(3 team) ties push
Wager Status:Pending
Risk:$1000.00 (USD)
To Win Amount:$833.33 (USD)
Description: Baltimore Ravens +13, Ravens/Titans Under 44½, Carolina Panthers pk

[MrMonkey]

Thanks Riggs!

I'm in! Good luck you guys!

MrMonkey

[Cougar Bait]

GL today Cheme! With you on Baltimore.

[Cheme82]

Thank you guys, good luck to you too.

[Cheme82]

Results: 2-1 +17.25

Definitely not the year for the teasers but I still made a decent profit.

So far in the playoffs: 5-2 +102


YTD
NFL
48-20-1 323.45
Teasers
2-7-1 -79.5
CFB
50-36 145.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[Cheme82]

Since carolina decided to shit all over my teaser (well mostly Delhome) i will take Pitt on the ML -260 for 25 units today.

For the write up just scroll up and read the one on the teaser since nothing has really changed, well actually a couple of things have changed.

1) They confirmed LT is out
2) Some books have moved Pitt to -7 and the ML is getting expensive like a mother****er even though the bets are pretty much 50/50.

So those are good things.

Pitt ML -260 for 25 units.

Good luck.

[Cheme82]

Result: 1-0 +25

So far in the playoffs: 6-2 +127 units

YTD
NFL
49-20-1 348.45
Teasers
2-7-1 -79.5
CFB
50-36 145.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[G's pks]

Nice job on the steelers I had them ml-300, was able to save an otherwise disaster of a weekend and finish a little up.

[Cheme82]

Good for you bro! I'm glad you made a little profit.

[MrMonkey]

Thanks Cheme for your insight! Appreciate it! IMO too much value with Balt. +6? Can't go to +6.5 after being +5? Putting something on them in a few minutes. Maybe more by end of week unless you give me reasons not to. Balt. is banged up, but they've been this way for awhile. Flacco is raw, but has the same field and situation awareness Ben had as a rookie. Just don't put him in bad situations.
Pitts. most likely will win, but +6 is not right.

Eagles are my team, really been pumped up for these playoffs. Didn't think they would beat NY, so again this week I will only put a small entertainment bet on them.

MrMonkey