Giants @ Cowboys Week 1, easiest play on the board?

[slacker00]

I was looking at the week 1 NFL lines and see Dallas is -3 at home against the Giants.

I have the Giants ranked as a much better team than the Cowboys, so the line seems way off.

Also consider that the Giants have won their last 4 in Dallas when Dallas had better teams.

Maybe I'm missing something, but this looks like the easiest play on the Week 1 NFL board.

[aman86]

probably the right play, but not the easiest... two teams that are too unpredictable

[rwd201]

[slacker00]

[rwd201]

Its a decent play
what you think about NYG week 2 and 3

[slacker00]

Its a decent play
what you think about NYG week 2 and 3

Week 2 is the "Manning Bowl" with Denver going to NY, I'm leaning Peyton in that one, he's 2-0 against Eli so far.

Week 3 Giants go to Carolina. I feel like Carolina is underrated this year, but still give a slight edge to the Giants.

[simmy17]

to be honest im rolling with dallas here and i dissagree that there the much better team...

[slacker00]

to be honest im rolling with dallas here and i dissagree that there the much better team...

The Giants defense is much better top to bottom, the Giants running game is better and Eli is better than Romo.

[The Samurai]

The Giants defense is much better top to bottom, the Giants running game is better and Eli is better than Romo.

Betting against the Cowboys has always served me well. No matter how shitty a team they are, and they are a shitty team, they remain the public darlings. Whenever they are favored, I take the points. Whenever they are dogs I take their opponents ml. No matter what, this is my rule for betting cowboys games. I'm so far ahead over the years with this strategy its ridiculous. Fuggin killed it last year on Thanksgiving against was ATS.

[simmy17]

The Giants defense is much better top to bottom, the Giants running game is better and Eli is better than Romo.

Eli regular season isnt much better than romo and when romo goes he can wreck that giants secondary ill take the cowboys WR over the giants and the only part of the giant def that is good is the pass rush.. Fade the giants this season this could be the cowboys year

[slacker00]

Eli regular season isnt much better than romo and when romo goes he can wreck that giants secondary ill take the cowboys WR over the giants and the only part of the giant def that is good is the pass rush.. Fade the giants this season this could be the cowboys year

So, we agree Eli>Romo. I'll take Nicks and Cruz over Austin and Bryant. Yes, the Giants pass rush is top notch.

[BoutDemCowboys]

The Giants defense is much better top to bottom, the Giants running game is better and Eli is better than Romo.

The Giants have a run game?? Since when? Tiki?

I'd take Demarco Murray over Wilson or Brown easily.... (Healthy)

And I would take Dez over Cruz or Nicks without hesitation...... Way better quality player. Huge frame (reminds me of Michael Irvin with the 88 and his body type), big ups. I'd take Dez all day in that matchup. Leave the salsa dancing for another time......

Giants Secondary is extremely questionable as well........

I wouldnt get so hype on Giants. Definitely not the easiest play on the board.

[suicidekings]

The Giants aren't easy at all here. The Cowboys had 12 of 16 games last year finish by a 1 score margin (five of those within a FG). Injuries hurt them, and an overly complex defensive scheme had them being hurt by big plays too often. But the talent available wasn't really the problem. In the draft, the Cowboys have taken a lot of criticism for the choices they made, but with the exception of missing out on some solid safety options, they did ok.

Factor in the transition from Rob Ryan's complicated 3-4 defense into Monte Kiffin's simplistic 4-3 Tampa 2 system and the Dallas defense will look a lot more consistent than in 2012. On offense, DeMarco Murray only saw 10 games last year, and had little support behind him on the depth chart. This year, the Cowboys added Joseph Randle, who's a very consistent player that does everything well, and Travis Frederick at C, who's biggest strength is his ability in blocking for the run game. This takes a fair bit of pressure off Romo, and should mean a more balanced offense for Dallas in 2013.

Laying -3 is a fair line for this game.

[slacker00]

The Giants have a run game?? Since when? Tiki?

I'm referring more to Dallas being 31st in rushing offense last year. Murray and Felix have proven very little.

[slacker00]

Factor in the transition from Rob Ryan's complicated 3-4 defense into Monte Kiffin's simplistic 4-3 Tampa 2 system and the Dallas defense will look a lot more consistent than in 2012. On offense, DeMarco Murray only saw 10 games last year, and had little support behind him on the depth chart. This year, the Cowboys added Joseph Randle, who's a very consistent player that does everything well, and Travis Frederick at C, who's biggest strength is his ability in blocking for the run game. This takes a fair bit of pressure off Romo, and should mean a more balanced offense for Dallas in 2013.

You are counting on a 73 year old coach out of the NFL for 5 years, a 5th round rookie RB and an overrated rookie C.

[suicidekings]

You are counting on a 73 year old coach out of the NFL for 5 years, a 5th round rookie RB and an overrated rookie C.

A DC that's bringing a much simpler, Tampa 2 system to a team where overly complex defensive schemes were a problem last year is the big change. Even if it was being installed by a much younger, less experienced DC it would be good for the team. Kiffin's age isn't optimal, but likely won't be a factor. He was out of the NFL for a $1.5M annual paycheque, working with his son at USC. That makes sense to me.

Randle was the 11th running back drafted this year, despite being a top 5 RB talent on the board. The Cowboys got great value by taking him where they did. He's a #2 behind a top 10 3-down tailback in Demarco Murray, added to share the load, not be a star. Frederick was taken above his draft grade, no question. But that has more to do with a small pool of Centers available this year and the Cowboys considering drafting a Center a big priority after several attempts to find an effective Center to anchor the OL over the last few years. Draft grade aside, he has the skill-set to be effective in interior pass rush defense and in run blocking, and the Cowboys need both of those to improve in 2013.

[suicidekings]

The Giants have their own problems too. Most notably, David Wilson as the #1 running back. Offensively, he's explosive, but he's extremely weak in pass protection. Protecting Eli was something that Bradshaw did very well, and given the Giants' receivers frequently run long routes that take time to develop downfield, the downgrade in pass protection is a problem. This problem is compounded with the departure of Martellus Bennett and his replacement by Brandon Myers, who despite hitting a career high in receptions last season, was bad in pass protection (Ranked the #26 starting TE in the NFL in 2012), and really awful in run blocking (Ranked #32). Even with a solid offensive line, Eli is going to be under a lot of pressure this year. The Giants offensive scheme depends on good run blocking more than ever now as Wilson is more of a guy that explodes through a gap than one that consistently powers ahead for a couple hard yards. If blocking is an issue, the Giants will have trouble using their full playbook.

On defense, they loaded up on big bodies on the line to help with run stopping, including drafting Johnathan Hankins from OSU, who I like a lot. However, their weakest position is at linebacker, which will undermine the improvement in the middle of the DL if they're soft in stopping RBs at the second level and/or have trouble in stopping TEs over the middle. They have decent depth at safety (albeit a lot of young players that have yet to live up to their potential) with the potential to move one of those prospects to OLB, however seeing as the Giants frequently rely on the 3 safety look on passing downs, it will be about making choices between improving their second level run defense and securing the deep passing plays.

The Giants corners aren't very strong either. Amukamara is fragile, and Webster has a lot of trouble with double moves, getting beaten consistently in 1-1 without the safety help over the top (This is a career problem. I'm not just picking on him for his poor 2012). So with safeties being responsible both for supporting a weak LB group in the run game and compensating for deficiencies in the corners in man coverage, they're in a situation where if the upgraded DL doesn't show a dramatic improvement in run stopping, the whole system will suffer and the Giants D will have trouble getting off the field.

Against the Cowboys, David Wilson & Brandon Myers stepping up in pass protection is going to be key. If Demarcus Ware gets at Eli early, the game could start to go sideways for them. I would think that the Cowboys will really prioritize establishing their run game early, so it will be also be important for the DL to stand their ground and force Romo back into the mindset of 2012, where he trusted his arm more than his run support.

[slacker00]

The Giants offensive scheme depends on good run blocking more than ever now as Wilson is more of a guy that explodes through a gap than one that consistently powers ahead for a couple hard yards.

This is the key. I see the Giants opening the offense up more for Eli rather than their typical ground and pound. Eli is in the prime of his career and he can take more responsibility in the offense. Remember Kevin Gilbride is one of the originators of the run-and-shoot approach. With the NFL changing the rules to encourage the passing game, the Giants are changing with the times, expect a much more wide-open offense this year.

[suicidekings]

This is the key. I see the Giants opening the offense up more for Eli rather than their typical ground and pound. Eli is in the prime of his career and he can take more responsibility in the offense. Remember Kevin Gilbride is one of the originators of the run-and-shoot approach. With the NFL changing the rules to encourage the passing game, the Giants are changing with the times, expect a much more wide-open offense this year.

Agreed. It would be smart to make this shift to suit their available personnel, but that means Wilson and Myers need to drastically improve in pass protection. If I'm an opponent's DC, I'm sending heat against these guys early and often.

If they can do even a moderate job in pass protection, Eli has the tools downfield to pick any defense apart.

[slacker00]

Agreed. It would be smart to make this shift to suit their available personnel, but that means Wilson and Myers need to drastically improve in pass protection. If I'm an opponent's DC, I'm sending heat against these guys early and often.

If they can do even a moderate job in pass protection, Eli has the tools downfield to pick any defense apart.

Kiffin's system is not a blitzing scheme. For this particular game, at least, it won't be a major issue.

[trevor123698]

the chiefs -2.5 is solid gold. you will lose the giants +3 bet.

[pouyasophy]

over on Romo turnovers, whatever that will be

[pouyasophy]

the chiefs -2.5 is solid gold. you will lose the giants +3 bet.

texans -3 even better

[The Samurai]

A DC that's bringing a much simpler, Tampa 2 system to a team where overly complex defensive schemes were a problem last year is the big change. Even if it was being installed by a much younger, less experienced DC it would be good for the team. Kiffin's age isn't optimal, but likely won't be a factor. He was out of the NFL for a $1.5M annual paycheque, working with his son at USC. That makes sense to me.

Randle was the 11th running back drafted this year, despite being a top 5 RB talent on the board. The Cowboys got great value by taking him where they did. He's a #2 behind a top 10 3-down tailback in Demarco Murray, added to share the load, not be a star. Frederick was taken above his draft grade, no question. But that has more to do with a small pool of Centers available this year and the Cowboys considering drafting a Center a big priority after several attempts to find an effective Center to anchor the OL over the last few years. Draft grade aside, he has the skill-set to be effective in interior pass rush defense and in run blocking, and the Cowboys need both of those to improve in 2013.

Simpler yes, when you have the proper personnel. Its Jerry Jones MO to bring in great coordinators and can them after they can't work with his shite players. I predict DAL will be bottom 5 in all the major defensive stats. I also predict a big turnaround for the Saints D. Ryan wasn't the problem. The franchise as a whole is a problem, they are a lousy franchise. As a bear fan, I'm all too familiar with the cover 2 and can tell you the Boys will not run it well. They don't have the athletes and speed that the bears have in the secondary. They will get burned by every descent qb in the league. I am gonna look for a prop that Eli throws for over 400 in the game.

[suicidekings]

Simpler yes, when you have the proper personnel. Its Jerry Jones MO to bring in great coordinators and can them after they can't work with his shite players. I predict DAL will be bottom 5 in all the major defensive stats. I also predict a big turnaround for the Saints D. Ryan wasn't the problem. The franchise as a whole is a problem, they are a lousy franchise. As a bear fan, I'm all too familiar with the cover 2 and can tell you the Boys will not run it well. They don't have the athletes and speed that the bears have in the secondary. They will get burned by every descent qb in the league. I am gonna look for a prop that Eli throws for over 400 in the game.

Even with sub-optimal personnel, if they can cut down the big defensive breakdowns that resulted in big gains for opponents, it will help a lot. Bottom 5 is too low of an estimate (there are a lot of bad teams this year), but 15-20th is probably a realistic spot.

[stevenash]

The Giants defense is much better top to bottom, the Giants running game is better and Eli is better than Romo.

this

[The Samurai]

Even with sub-optimal personnel, if they can cut down the big defensive breakdowns that resulted in big gains for opponents, it will help a lot. Bottom 5 is too low of an estimate (there are a lot of bad teams this year), but 15-20th is probably a realistic spot.

Maybe, but maybe not. The only D's I see being worse than the Boys are the other D's with new coaches and schemes and I know that some will surprise me and I'll be wrong but I see the Bills being worse, San Diego, Philly, Raiders, KC, and dare I say the Bears. But again, I'm sure some of those will surprise. I know Saints and Bucs will be better. Guys like the Manning's, Brady, Rodgers, Breeze, and the like lick their chops when facing base zones. They dink and dunk all day and before you know it, big plays break through. Also while Lee is definitely above avg in coverage, I see opposing RB's and TE's giving him fits and eventually carter will take over at Mike because he's the superior athlete. Claiborne, to me, is the only secondary player that will thrive in this system.. Church, Carr, and Sensabaugh are all ?'s.

[The Samurai]

Just remembered Sensabaugh was released so I guess Wilcox is the default S. Either way, still a ?.

[slacker00]

Cowboys will never be anything but a middling team with Jerry around.