Falcons/Vikings

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  • rockhardfister
    SBR MVP
    • 11-27-08
    • 1037

    #1
    Falcons/Vikings
    Guys,

    I havent seen any cappers talk about this game or the Eagles/Redskins game so I have taken the liberty to break this down a bit.

    If you look at the Vikes last 4 games (all wins) they were decided mostly by opponents mistakes and big plays. These games arent listed in chronological order, but these are the pertinent results:

    Against Jacksonville the Vikes got 2 INTs, 3 Fumbles (one was returned for a 27 yard TD), the Jags had 8 penalties for 81 yards and at least 2 Vikings scores were direct results of turnovers. The Vikes were up 14-0 within 2 minutes of the opening kickoff because of Jaguars turnovers. Even though AP and Tayler only got 105 yards rushing COMBINED, they also got 2 rushing TDs. The Vikes gave up an INT and the gave up 35 rushing yards defensively. The Vikes gave up a lot of passing yards but only 1 TD pass. The Jags never saw the endzone after that. The Vikes gave up a meaningless safety towards the end of the game.

    Against Chicago the Vikes got 3 INTs, a 99 yard TD catch (Berrian) a 49 yard KR (no TD), a 21 yard TD run (Taylor) and the Bears had 5 penalties for 50 yards. AP had 131 yards rushing (including a 59 yard run) and Taylor added 46 yards rushing. The Vikes gave up an INT. The Vikes also gave up 103 yards rushing.

    Against Arizona the Vikes got 1 INT and 1 fumble, Berrian had an 82-yard PR TD, Berrian also had a 41 yard TD catch, Wade had a 59 yard TD catch, AP got 165 yards rushing, the Vikes gave up 43 rushing yards. The Vikes were up 28-0 going into halftime. The Vikes gave up a fumble and their defense gave up 43 rushing yards. The Vikes defense also gave up some pass yards and a 50-yard TD pass, but the game was pretty much decided by then.

    Against Detroit (the closest game of this stretch so far) the Vikes got no turnovers, a 43 yard KR (no TD), 8+ plays of 13 yards or more, AP had 102 yards rushing (3 fumbles but didnt lose any), Taylor had 27 rush yards and a TD. But the Vikes net 129 rush yards between the 2 RBs. The Vikes gave up 2 INTs, a 70 yard TD pass and 7 plays of 13 yards or more. The Vikes defense gave up 76 rushing yards. That game was a 4 point win for the Vikings.

    Basically the Vikes live on other teams mistakes, either through turnovers or big plays.

    In the Vikes last loss (against Tampa) the Vikes got 1 fumble, a 26 yard KR (no TD), 2 plays of 20+ yards, AP got 85 rushing yards (no TDs), Taylor got 11 rushing yards (no TDs). The Vikes gave up 2 fumbles, a rushing TD and at least 4 plays of 20+ yards. The Vikes defense gave up 108 rushing yards. Against Tampa the Vikes got a turnover (but lose the turnover battle), gave up the most rushing yards and got the least rushing yards in a 6 point loss.

    Folks, the formula for beating the Vikings in the Metrodome on Sunday is a plain and simple one...

    Dont turn the ball over and run the ball on offense, limit the stupid penalties and limit the big plays on defense. Turner does not drop the rock and Ryan will have a bounce back game as he threw 2 picks last week. On the flip side I think T. Jackson gives it up 2x today.

    Falcons should be able to run the ball with Pat Williams out keeping Ryan out of 3rd and long. Keonen leads the league in punts having only given up 42 total yards on the year.

    I like Falcons ML today - 1 unit
  • rockhardfister
    SBR MVP
    • 11-27-08
    • 1037

    #2
    Something else to ponder!

    Abraham and the Pro Bowl snub and this stat:

    The Vikings OL has given up 22 sacks in 233 drop backs against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league for sacks. That's 1 sack every 10.6 dropbacks. They gave up 19 sacks in 198 drop backs against teams in the top half of the league for sacks. That's still 1 sack for every 10.4 drop backs. Mediocre against elite rushing teams, but even terrible teams like Houston can get three sacks against the Vikings (Houston ranks 27th in the league in sacks) Minnesota cannot protect their passers.

    Atlanta on the other hand has done a great job of protecting Matt Ryan. Against teams that rank in the bottom half of the league for sacks, the Falcons have give up 1 sack in 170 drop backs. That's ridiculous. Against teams that rank in the top half of the league for sacks, they gave up 13 sacks in 233 drop backs, which is a very respectable average of 1 sack per 17.9 drop backs. Even elite teams don't tee off on Ryan (with the exception of our first game against Tampa where Ryan was sacked 4 times). Jared Allen is not 100% today
    Comment
    • NardVa
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-02-07
      • 8325

      #3
      Originally posted by rockhardfister
      Guys,

      I havent seen any cappers talk about this game or the Eagles/Redskins game so I have taken the liberty to break this down a bit.

      If you look at the Vikes last 4 games (all wins) they were decided mostly by opponents mistakes and big plays. These games arent listed in chronological order, but these are the pertinent results:

      Against Jacksonville the Vikes got 2 INTs, 3 Fumbles (one was returned for a 27 yard TD), the Jags had 8 penalties for 81 yards and at least 2 Vikings scores were direct results of turnovers. The Vikes were up 14-0 within 2 minutes of the opening kickoff because of Jaguars turnovers. Even though AP and Tayler only got 105 yards rushing COMBINED, they also got 2 rushing TDs. The Vikes gave up an INT and the gave up 35 rushing yards defensively. The Vikes gave up a lot of passing yards but only 1 TD pass. The Jags never saw the endzone after that. The Vikes gave up a meaningless safety towards the end of the game.

      Against Chicago the Vikes got 3 INTs, a 99 yard TD catch (Berrian) a 49 yard KR (no TD), a 21 yard TD run (Taylor) and the Bears had 5 penalties for 50 yards. AP had 131 yards rushing (including a 59 yard run) and Taylor added 46 yards rushing. The Vikes gave up an INT. The Vikes also gave up 103 yards rushing.

      Against Arizona the Vikes got 1 INT and 1 fumble, Berrian had an 82-yard PR TD, Berrian also had a 41 yard TD catch, Wade had a 59 yard TD catch, AP got 165 yards rushing, the Vikes gave up 43 rushing yards. The Vikes were up 28-0 going into halftime. The Vikes gave up a fumble and their defense gave up 43 rushing yards. The Vikes defense also gave up some pass yards and a 50-yard TD pass, but the game was pretty much decided by then.

      Against Detroit (the closest game of this stretch so far) the Vikes got no turnovers, a 43 yard KR (no TD), 8+ plays of 13 yards or more, AP had 102 yards rushing (3 fumbles but didnt lose any), Taylor had 27 rush yards and a TD. But the Vikes net 129 rush yards between the 2 RBs. The Vikes gave up 2 INTs, a 70 yard TD pass and 7 plays of 13 yards or more. The Vikes defense gave up 76 rushing yards. That game was a 4 point win for the Vikings.

      Basically the Vikes live on other teams mistakes, either through turnovers or big plays.

      In the Vikes last loss (against Tampa) the Vikes got 1 fumble, a 26 yard KR (no TD), 2 plays of 20+ yards, AP got 85 rushing yards (no TDs), Taylor got 11 rushing yards (no TDs). The Vikes gave up 2 fumbles, a rushing TD and at least 4 plays of 20+ yards. The Vikes defense gave up 108 rushing yards. Against Tampa the Vikes got a turnover (but lose the turnover battle), gave up the most rushing yards and got the least rushing yards in a 6 point loss.

      Folks, the formula for beating the Vikings in the Metrodome on Sunday is a plain and simple one...

      Dont turn the ball over and run the ball on offense, limit the stupid penalties and limit the big plays on defense. Turner does not drop the rock and Ryan will have a bounce back game as he threw 2 picks last week. On the flip side I think T. Jackson gives it up 2x today.

      Falcons should be able to run the ball with Pat Williams out keeping Ryan out of 3rd and long. Keonen leads the league in punts having only given up 42 total yards on the year.

      I like Falcons ML today - 1 unit

      Took the words right out my mouth. The only problem is with Minny being at home at fighting for the playoffs their good fortune may continue. Plus last year Vikings barely missed the playoffs losing their last 2 games. They might have extra motivation to get it right this year down the stretch.
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        I think Falcons/Vikes may be the toughest pick of the week. Staying far, far away.
        Comment
        • rockhardfister
          SBR MVP
          • 11-27-08
          • 1037

          #5
          Agree - tough game thats why I did this - no one is touching it

          hence - 1 unit

          I really need the Steelers today
          Comment
          • rockhardfister
            SBR MVP
            • 11-27-08
            • 1037

            #6
            Did I call this shit or what?
            Comment
            • Seattle Slew
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-02-06
              • 7373

              #7
              Nice call. I love betting against Minnesota. They are such garbage. No heart, no smarts, nothing. They found out in the first quarter they are playing a real team as opposed to that nonsense they saw in Arizona. I could see the Giants' reserves beating them next week.
              Comment
              • Jayy
                SBR High Roller
                • 10-07-08
                • 203

                #8
                the vikes played like trash, i had them big
                Comment
                • rockhardfister
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-27-08
                  • 1037

                  #9
                  Yes they did - the key point is that I called it

                  Dont worry - it doesnt happen to often but I basically wrote the script to the game before it happened

                  Steelers and Mike Tomlins "I dont give a shit" attitude ruined my day
                  Comment
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