Does this bet make sense?

[rockhardfister]

My pick for the GB/CHI game will be dictated by the results of the ATL/MIN game. For example if the ATL/MIN game reaches a point where I feel the game is locked up then I will throw down on either GB or CHI. If ATL has the game in hand then obviously CHI will go balls to the wall against GB as they will still have a shot at the playoffs, expecially since MIN plays the Giants last game of the season. If MIN is laying the smack down then CHI is officially eliminated and I think they will not give as good of an effort -- then GB would be the bet. (GB has been eliminated for a couple of weeks so they have pretty much come to grips with themselves)

Is this thinking flawed? Either way, there are not to many opportunity's during the year to test this theory but im gonna give it a shot Sunday.

There are a couple of other games where the same methodology could be applied but im done typing.

[Gemoka]

I was thinking the same
Atlanta +3 and Bears -4
or
Vikes -3 and Packers +4

wonder what the MNF line will drop to if the Vikes win??

[rockhardfister]

I think the spread will drop or increase as soon as it becomes apparent that either ATL or MIN have the game in hand. Personally I am going to throw in an ATL-ML/ CHI Parlay before this kicks off. I really think ATL wins this game straight up - Here is why:

This game features #1 and #2 rushing leaders Peterson and Turner. The Vikings will be without their Pro Bowl DT Pat Williams which will hurt their defensive push. Jared Allen is much like the Falcons Abraham as in when he gets a sack, it's usually followed by another. Both go games with no sacks them have others they get multiple. Both teams are in a fight to make the playoffs so both teams should be well prepared. My guess, is it will come down to turnovers.

The difference is Atlanta has proven they can overcome turnovers. They are the only team in the NFL to win two games this year where they were -3 in turnover differential. So as long as they protect the ball, there is a good chance they will win the game. Last week they gave it up 3x so look for a more focused effort this week. T. Jackson has been playing lights the last two weeks (4TD no picks vs Cardinals). No way that pace keeps up this week. Jackson gives it up 2x this week while Ryan has a bounce back game.