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  • raiders72002
    SBR MVP
    • 03-06-07
    • 3368

    #1
    Service Plays
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    Grand Slam Grand Slam is online now
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    Adam Meyer...


    5* bengals +7
    5*packers-1.5
    5*colts -17
    4*broncos +7.5 (underdog play of week)
    4* teaser ne-1/2, denver+13.5

    4* sf +6.5
    5* bucs +3
    4.5* jills +7.5
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    DR BOB

    3% Buff +7.5 or more 2% +7
    3% Baltimore -2.5 or less or 2% -3
    2% Oakland +5 to +7 3% +7.5 or more
    2% Houston +3.5 or more
    strong opinion Detroit +16 or more
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    Ben Burns

    3-Game Ultimate Report Side.
    Texans
    Bills
    Bengals

    3-Game Ultimate Report Totals
    Under Lions
    Under TB Bucs
    Under Giants

    NFC East Game of Year-Dallas
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    HILTON CONTEST Week 15

    Picked by most cappers (3-2 last week, 38-30-2 overall)

    1 Arizona -3 By 111
    2 Baltimore -2 By 94
    3 NY Giants +3 By 85
    3 NY Jets -7 By 83
    5 Atlanta -3 By 68

    Picked by widest margin

    1 Arizona -3 By 77 more
    2 NY Jets -7 By 55 more
    3 Baltimore -2 By 45 more
    4 St. Louis +3 By 35 more
    4 NY Giants +3 By 24 more

    Picks for Top Contestant (47-21-2)

    The Betting Doctor (2-3 last week)

    Detroit +17
    Atlanta +3
    Baltimore -2
    Kansas City +5
    Minnesota +3

    Hilton 4 way tie for 1st........all 4 have Bal and Atl

    BETTI DOCTOR.COM 47 21 2 DET ATL BAL KC MIN
    STYLIN' .... 47 22 1 ATL SEA TEN BAL ARI
    BUCKEYE702 . 47 21 2 ATL NYJ TEN BAL ARI
    FEZZIK . 47 21 2 NO ATL STL BAL OAK
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    Brandon Lang
    25 Dime Baltimore Ravens

    10 dime 6-point teaser - Jets / Broncos

    FREE: NY Giants
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    DOC'S Game of the Year

    PICK: Kansas City Chiefs
    Your pick will be graded at: 6 Belmont

    EXPERT: DOCS Sports
    TITLE: NFL Game of the Year
    REASON FOR PICK: 5 Unit Play. #18 Take Kansas City Chiefs +5 over San Diego Chargers (Sunday 1:00 pm CBS) Pro Game of the Year. The Chargers are overrated, enough said! They are one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL and there is not a chance they warrant to be laying points on the road. The Chiefs play Denver tough last week on the road and lost to the Chargers earlier this season by just one point, 20-19, despite being a 14 ½ point underdog. Kansas City has finally settler on a quarterback in Tyler Thigpen and he does have some receiving weapons to work with in Bowe and Gonzalez. The Chargers have never recovered for the botched call earlier this season and they cannot wait for this season to end. The Chiefs are playing for their coaches and the players are playing for their jobs next season. They win this game straight-up and getting points in a bonus. Kansas City 27, San Diego 24.
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    Andre Gomes

    Miami vs San Francisco


    Play: Triple Dime -5,5 Miami
    Comments:

    NFL Week 15 - 311 San Francisco 49ers @ 312 Miami Dolphins

    This is my only triple dime play of the season and this is surely the game where I have more confidence during the whole season. I know it may seem weird my GOY to be on a team like Miami and not for example on the Giants, the Steelers or the Titans, but the truth is that all the conditions I need to make a play my GOY are present on this game, so I'm sticking with it.

    Miami is 0-3 ATS as an home favorite this season and as a big favorite by 7 or more points, they are also 0-3 ATS. They won these three games, but they were very close wins: 16-12 @St Louis, 17-15 vs Oakland and 21-19 vs Seattle. These bad results in terms of ATS made the oddmakers release such a low line for this game and put Miami as just a 2 FG's favorite at home against an awful team, but the truth is that Miami won't underrate this team, as I'll explain later.

    The spot is very different for these two teams. Miami is tied on the division lead with the Patriots and the Jets right now, with a 8-5 record and they will probably need to win their remaining three games to get into the playoffs, so we can clearly say that this team will have 3 must win games until the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Niners are in a much different situation. The team will have to come to the East coast once again and we have the timezone problem, but more important than that, the Niners will have next week a divisional game against the Rams, so I wouldn't be surprised if we are looking to a lookahead situation for the Niners in here.

    One of the big edges that Miami will have in here has to go with injuries. Miami is a fully healthy team, with no major injuries. On the other side, RB Frank Gore is questionable and he won't likely play this week. The importance of Gore on the team is huge and I remember that on all six ATS wins of the Niners this season, Frank Gore rushed the football for over 60 yards in all of these games. And in three of them, Gore had more than 100 rushing yards! The problem is not only the absence of Gore, but who will replace him. Fumble-prone DeShaun Foster will start and he led all NFL running back with five lost fumbles in 2007. And speaking of fumbles, that's the biggest edge of Miami on this game: the turnover battle!

    You won't find this season s biggest turnover difference between two teams than between Miami and San Francisco. The Dolphins lead the leading in turnover margin (+12), they have just turned over the ball 10 times this season and they are on track to have the fewest number of turnovers per game in NFL history (0.77), while San Francisco has the worst turnover margin of the league this season (-14) and they had suffered 15 interceptions and 15 lost fumbles. We are talking about an huge difference on these two teams, so I wouldn't be surprised if these numbers get confirmed on this game. The paucity of turnovers helps keep Miami's defense rested and especially as so few have occurred in the Dolphins' end of the field, it gives them a larger margin of error because of field position. The Dolphins are 13th in total defense, 18th in yards per play, but 9th in points given up.

    After having studied this game, we will to know if Miami is going to underrate the Niners. Look, the Dolphins watched the Niners defeating the Bills and the Jets (two divisional rivals of the Dolphins) in two consecutive weeks, so will they underrate them even knowing they have defeated two rivals of Miami in the past two weeks? I don't think so. On the other side, the fact that San Francisco faced two divisional rivals of Miami on the past two weeks allowed Miami to carefully studied how the Niners are playing right now. On a similar spot, Dallas spanked Seattle on Thanksgiving and I expect the same to happen in here.

    San Francisco is 0-6 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive ATS wins in the last two seasons and having in account, Miami will just need to win by a difference of two field goals to cover the spread, I think we have all the necessary elements to make this play my NFL Game of the Year! Take Miami in here. TRIPLE DIME PLAY!

    Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 312 Miami Dolphins (-5,5) @1.926 on Pinnacle
    Note: Buy the 1/2 point to get to 5,5 if you need to.



    Atlanta vs Tampa Bay


    Play: Single Dime -3 Atlanta
    Comments:

    NFL Week 15 - 309 Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 310 Atlanta Falcons

    We have seen last Monday the power that a home division game has on the NFC South teams. In fact, the teams from this division are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in division home games. This week, Atlanta will face Tampa at home, in a decisive game for both teams, who are both coming from defeats. The Bucs were destroyed at Carolina by the Panthers last Monday by 23-38, in a game where Tampa Bay wasn't able to stop the running game of the Panthers, which even broke a NFL record. I'm going to quote something I've said about that game and how important is the defense of the Bucs for them:

    "If you look to injury list of this game, we see 3 players of Tampa in doubt for tonight: Kevin Carter, Jovan Haye and Gaines Adams. These three players are part of the defensive line of the Bucs and they have started all games of Tampa this season. So, we won't have a defensive line of the Bucs at 100% tonight and when we see the Panthers' running game on-fire, this can be a huge problem for the Bucs."

    The news aren't good for the Bucs, as DTs Jovan Haye and Chris Hovan are questionable for this game. Neither was able to participate fully in Friday's practice. Now they are going to face a team, who has the second best running offense of the league, with 146.4 yards per game, just behind the Giants. I remember that on the first game between these two teams this season, Tampa defeated at home Atlanta by 24-9, with the Bucs holding RB Michael Turner to a season low 42 yards on 14 carries. The Falcons rushed for 105 yards, but 34 of those yards came on two runs by wide receiver Harry Douglas. For this game, I expect the scenario to be different. First of all, the problems on the DL of the Bucs will make them struggle, especially when the running offense of the Falcons wasn't used a lot last week at New Orleans and so, they will be fresher than never.

    The Falcons only had 30 rushes last week against the Saints, tied for their third lowest rushes in a game this season.

    “That game demanded throwing the ball a little bit last week,” Mularkey said. “We’ll do that if we have to. I’m not concerned about it. I think the guys know that’s our mentality and that’s not going to change.”

    If we add the fact that Matt Ryan is one of the best QB of the league in home games, with an amazing average of 107.2 QB rating at home, I don't see why Atlanta won't be able to make a lot of damage on this game. The Bucs have been well lately on the offense, by scoring 38, 23 and 23 points on their last 3 games and that has been due to the excellent job of their QB Jeff Garcia, who is coming from a MNF game, where he threw the ball for 321 yards and had 2 TD passes. However, he is questionable for this game and he was limited the whole week on practice. One of the strongest parts of his game is his mobility and with him struggling with a calf injury, the Bucs won't be so effective on the offense.

    I expect a good win from the young Falcons in here. This is a revenge game from them and Matt Ryan had his worst game of the season against the Bucs on that game (first NFL road game for him at the time). Atlanta is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss and the revenge game factor will very important in here, as all teams are 34-8 ATS in the last 10 seasons, while revenging a same season loss against an opponents, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) during the second half of the season. Take Atlanta in here.

    Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 310 Atlanta Falcons (-3) @1.87 on TheGreek



    Detroit vs NY Jets


    Play: Single Dime +23,5 Detroit x -2,5 NY Jets
    Score: TEASER!!!
    Comments:

    NFL Week 15 - Detroit @ Indianapolis & Buffalo @ NY Jets - Teaser

    I admit I almost took Detroit in a single play this week, but the fact that I have my GOY this Sunday and I don't like to have many units in play at the same time made me take them just on a teaser. I'm not saying the Lions have a chance to win this game, because they don't. The truth is that the teaser gives us a line of 23.5 points and I expect Detroit to cover this spread easily. Unlike the other lowly teams, Detroit still has a goal to achieve this season: win a game! For this game, QB Dan Orlovsky will be back and he was clearly the best QB of Detroit this season. With Orlovsky as a starter, the Lions scored 23, 17 and 21 points, with Orlovsky himself having QB ratings of 88.2, 99.6 and 95.3, so we can say the Lions have now their best QB back and their offense will be better this week. But the main question is here has to go with the Colts. The team is coming from a big win by 35-3 against the Bengals and certainly they didn't practice as hard as they could this week, as they know they will face the winless Detroit at home. The Colts aren’t going to be really concerned with this matchup. Their goal is to win, avoid injuries and move on. I remember Indianapolis has some key players physically limited right now. RB Joseph Addai is doubtful, S Bob Sanders is questionable and Gary Brackett is out. So, the team may not use these players this week, especially as they will play at Jacksonville next Thursday against the Jags, in a big revenge divisional game, which they will have to win, in order to get a wildcard for the playoffs, so I don't expect a big effort from the Colts this week. Detroit is 4-1 ATS as a double digits dog this season and with the teaser, we have the enormity of 23.5 points.



    The Jets went from the hottest team of the league to a struggling team in just two weeks, as after winning 7 of their last 8 games, they lost their last two games, in which their were favorites. First they lost at home against Denver and last week, they lost at San Francisco. So, this game will be essential for them. The team has a terrible pass defense and they are second last on that stat, with 251.2 yards allowed per game. However, the good news for them is that the Bills are horrible on the offense right now. The team is coming from back to back games where they scored just 3 points against the Niners and Miami. On their last game against Miami, the Bills had just 79 passing yards! Actually Buffalo hasn’t scored a touchdown in two games and 22 offensive possessions over three games. To make things worse, QB Trent Edwards didn't recover from his injury and he will be out of this game and the scenario won't be famous for Buffalo. The Bills will become a run oriented team for this game, but that doesn't seem to be bad news for the Jets, as they have the 4th best run defense of the league, with just 83.5 yards allowed per game. I believe Brett Favre will step it up this season the Bills, who have lost all their real chances of getting onto the postseason, won't stand a chance in here. However, I think the Jets will just want to win this game, so I'm taking them on just a teaser (-2.5 points), which is an advantage of a Field Goal, which I consider to be the best play on this game.

    NFL 6 1/2 Teaser: 3 units (Regular Play) on Detroit (+23,5) x NY Jets (-2,5) @1.833 on Pinnacle
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    Two Minute Warning


    Jacksonville +2 1/2
    Detroit +17
    San Francisco +6 1/2
    Houston +3
    Baltimore -2
    Denver +7 1/2
    Kansas City +5 1/2
    Minnesota +3
    Oakland + 7
    N.Y.Giants +3
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    sportsbook.com

    Gbay 92%
    Indy 77%
    Wash 79%
    Atl 83%
    Sea 78%
    NYJ 80%
    Tenn 89%
    SD 74%
    Ariz 91%
    NE 92%
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    There is no "value" in losing.
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    Dave Malinsky

    4* Stlouis +3

    4* nyj/buffalo Under 41

    4* cincy +7
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    Ethan Law.

    CONFIRMED SUNDDAY NFL SELECTIONS
    2% DALLAS -3 -$105
    2% JACKSONVILLE +2 -$105
    2% BALTIMORE -3 +$105
    2% DENVER +8
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  • Skanless1
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-15-08
    • 706

    #2
    thanks for posting!
    Comment
    • fuzzythurst79
      SBR Rookie
      • 12-14-08
      • 27

      #3
      I have Atl/Bal par
      Atl/Bal/Kc 3 teamer
      Comment
      • fuzzythurst79
        SBR Rookie
        • 12-14-08
        • 27

        #4
        Thanks for that helpful post
        Comment
        • Weezy F.
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 03-29-08
          • 953

          #5
          Comment
          • fuzzythurst79
            SBR Rookie
            • 12-14-08
            • 27

            #6
            duh what?
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