I haven’t done much NFL this season. Main reason is I have been enjoying college so much. With no college games this weekend and plenty of time between bowls I decided to do some NFL. Crazy as ever there is one thing that has sort of played out, the common sense plays that look too obvious have had a tendency to hold up. Many times we think there is a huge conspiracy against us that when it looks obvious it’s got to be a trap and we find reasons to go the other way.
For these games I am trying to use common sense and the program I use in college football with minor adjustments for the pro’s.
Washington -7 @ Cincinnati
A lot of talk in Washington this week between Portis and the head coach. Sometimes this motivates sometimes it creates a wedge. We’ll see which this becomes. If this game were played 4 weeks ago it would be a no-brainer and a play on the Redskins. Its 4 weeks later and I have to think Cincinnati has a chance to keep this game close and even has an outside chance at a win.
Cincinnati +7**
Tennessee -3 @ Huston
Houston is a much improved team and absolutely better at home. Tennessee has lost only one game all season and still no-one seems to give them any respect. Everyone says this and that about their schedule and how they have won games. Many have lost money betting against the Titans waiting for that Cinderella slipper to get left on the steps. It may happen this week but they rate out way too much higher in this game than do the Texans so if the slippers get left behind this weekend my couple of units will be in them.
Tennessee -3**
Detroit @ Indianapolis -17
How can anyone in their right mind lay this much chalk in the NFL. Double digit dog stats from this season tells us you can’t. No stats and no trends are 100% and when you have a team who is healthier and also still very good at home against a team that plays like they simply don’t care I like my chances even at this high a price. Detroit may shock me and keep this one under the number but I can’t see how it happens.
Indianapolis -17**
Minnesota @ Arizona -3
Arizona is riding high they have clench a playoff the division. The old timer Werner is having a great season and the team is playing really good football. Minnesota has a great defense against the run but that won’t help me here since Arizona likes to air it out. Minnesota also has Adrian Peterson and that does help me as I like his chances of having the biggest day of his season this year. Putting much stock in a let down after clenching in the Cardinals and an inspired effort out of Minnesota here.
Minnesota +3**
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta -3
Atlanta has been a beast this season at home. Ryan in his rookie season has really impressed not only his team and his fans but football as a whole. Tampa Bay lost the division lead last week in their loss at Carolina and they lost something else that is more critical to their season, Jeff Garcia. Garcia hurt his ankle and Gruden is starting Luke McCown this week. It is the NFL and anything is possible and this play hurts me as I am a huge Tampa Bay fan. If Garcia was under center and I was getting the points I would have to take a chance with the Bucs but unproven McCown doesn’t get my dollars.
Atlanta -3**
Dallas @ NY Giants-3
This is another play that is hard for me to make as I have been a Cowboys fan longer than I have been a Bucs fan. The Cowboys loss last week was expected last week before the game was played that is. The way they lost hurt this team and created the time bomb that has been expected since Owens joined the team. A bad loss, an owner questioning the starting tailback Owens comments about Romo and Whittens conspiracy and the argument that was stopped just short of blows is just too much for this fan to take. Unless this is a Hollywood Blockbuster it is too much for the Cowboys to overcome. I hate the Giants but at home minus 3 with everything that has and is happening to Dallas I’ll bite.
NY Giants -3**
Would advise any looking into these plays to do your own research and not follow blindly unless you personally agree because it’s the NFL and I am not proven here.
For these games I am trying to use common sense and the program I use in college football with minor adjustments for the pro’s.
Washington -7 @ Cincinnati
A lot of talk in Washington this week between Portis and the head coach. Sometimes this motivates sometimes it creates a wedge. We’ll see which this becomes. If this game were played 4 weeks ago it would be a no-brainer and a play on the Redskins. Its 4 weeks later and I have to think Cincinnati has a chance to keep this game close and even has an outside chance at a win.
Cincinnati +7**
Tennessee -3 @ Huston
Houston is a much improved team and absolutely better at home. Tennessee has lost only one game all season and still no-one seems to give them any respect. Everyone says this and that about their schedule and how they have won games. Many have lost money betting against the Titans waiting for that Cinderella slipper to get left on the steps. It may happen this week but they rate out way too much higher in this game than do the Texans so if the slippers get left behind this weekend my couple of units will be in them.
Tennessee -3**
Detroit @ Indianapolis -17
How can anyone in their right mind lay this much chalk in the NFL. Double digit dog stats from this season tells us you can’t. No stats and no trends are 100% and when you have a team who is healthier and also still very good at home against a team that plays like they simply don’t care I like my chances even at this high a price. Detroit may shock me and keep this one under the number but I can’t see how it happens.
Indianapolis -17**
Minnesota @ Arizona -3
Arizona is riding high they have clench a playoff the division. The old timer Werner is having a great season and the team is playing really good football. Minnesota has a great defense against the run but that won’t help me here since Arizona likes to air it out. Minnesota also has Adrian Peterson and that does help me as I like his chances of having the biggest day of his season this year. Putting much stock in a let down after clenching in the Cardinals and an inspired effort out of Minnesota here.
Minnesota +3**
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta -3
Atlanta has been a beast this season at home. Ryan in his rookie season has really impressed not only his team and his fans but football as a whole. Tampa Bay lost the division lead last week in their loss at Carolina and they lost something else that is more critical to their season, Jeff Garcia. Garcia hurt his ankle and Gruden is starting Luke McCown this week. It is the NFL and anything is possible and this play hurts me as I am a huge Tampa Bay fan. If Garcia was under center and I was getting the points I would have to take a chance with the Bucs but unproven McCown doesn’t get my dollars.
Atlanta -3**
Dallas @ NY Giants-3
This is another play that is hard for me to make as I have been a Cowboys fan longer than I have been a Bucs fan. The Cowboys loss last week was expected last week before the game was played that is. The way they lost hurt this team and created the time bomb that has been expected since Owens joined the team. A bad loss, an owner questioning the starting tailback Owens comments about Romo and Whittens conspiracy and the argument that was stopped just short of blows is just too much for this fan to take. Unless this is a Hollywood Blockbuster it is too much for the Cowboys to overcome. I hate the Giants but at home minus 3 with everything that has and is happening to Dallas I’ll bite.
NY Giants -3**
Would advise any looking into these plays to do your own research and not follow blindly unless you personally agree because it’s the NFL and I am not proven here.