The Sports Crunchers' Week #15 Write Ups

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  • Sports Cruncher
    SBR Hustler
    • 12-10-08
    • 98

    #1
    The Sports Crunchers' Week #15 Write Ups
    SAINTS @ BEARS

    If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

    One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

    The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

    The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

    Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

    While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

    In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

    Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

    Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20
  • bypp
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-05-08
    • 664

    #2
    Still not sure which way I'm going with this one. The one thing that throws me off is that NO just seems to be a different team on the road. GL with your bet, I enjoyed the writeup.
    Comment
    • riggs
      Restricted User
      • 11-06-08
      • 1100

      #3
      Originally posted by Sports Cruncher
      SAINTS @ BEARS

      If there is one person Drew Brees perpetually has a step on in football, it’s Kyle Orton. Orton followed in Brees’ footsteps to Purdue University and then to the NFL, but he’s never been able to put up passing numbers anywhere near those of Brees. Luckily for Orton, he hasn’t had to carry the team on his shoulders as the Bears have equaled the Saints’ 7-6 record with a better defense.

      One might think that the Bears have the vastly superior run game, but the gap in quality is pretty close right now with both squads well below average. Not only that, both teams have had a soft run-defense schedule. The Bears have had the 23rd ranked toughest run defense schedule, while the Saints have had the 31st, one shy of the easiest schedule. Not so good for either team, with the small nod going to the Bears as teams have been able to key on their run game more than anyone dares to do versus the Saints’ passing offense. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush combined for 182 rushing yards last week versus an admittedly poor Falcons’ run defense. Nobody puts 8 men in the box versus the Saints unless it’s a down & very short distance situation, and the Saints are taking advantage by running the ball more and more. Yes, Reggie Bush is back, which means Deuce McCallister is relegated to nothing more than an occasional 3rd and inches play, lol.

      The Bears’ run defense won’t be getting any extra help this game, so expect the Saints to utilize a balanced offense that will keep the Bears’ defense on it’s heels all game, as they need the Bears to respect the run enough to maximize their success with the play action pass. The Bears’ will be relying on their front four to get pressure on Drew Brees, so don’t expect a lot of blitzes from them as they’re well aware that Brees is possibly the best quarterback in the league at getting rid of the ball when facing pressure. If their defensive line doesn’t get to Brees they’ll just be crossing their fingers and hoping that they have enough passing lanes clogged with defenders to break up passes or get interceptions, as Brees isn’t gun shy and will almost always throw the ball instead of taking a sack, and the Bears have been better at getting interceptions than sacking quarterbacks this year. The Bears’ defense has good reason to be very nervous in this game, as they’re just not solid enough defending the pass to get too creative.

      The Bears have a below average 25th ranked run offense, and their pass offense is slightly worse at 26th. This is a good match up for the Saints’ defense. They got off to a poor start this season and have had to deal with a few injuries, but they’re back to near 100% up front and it’s showing up in their performances. In 6 of their last 9 games the Saints’ defense has held opponent’s to under 4 yards per carry, and some of those came versus some very good run teams – the Vikings, the Panthers, and the Falcons twice, all top 10 run offenses, and versus the Packers (15th) and Raiders (17th). The Bears are far below these teams.

      Can Kyle Orton and the passing game compensate for the average at best run day the Bears can expect to have? Once again, the trends indicate that no, they will not. The Saints’ pass defense also struggled early in the season but has shown a lot of improvement as the defense has gelled as a complete unit. In precisely half of their last 8 games has a team thrown for more than 5.4 yards per pass versus the Saints – twice by the Falcons (ranked 5th), once by the Chargers (ranked 2nd), and once by the Panthers (ranked 8th), so only very good passing offenses are having success versus the Saints, and those were all games in which the Saints keyed on the opponent’s run offenses with pretty good success.

      While the Saints’ defense has been improving, the same can’t be said for the Bears’ offense. Since week 3 they’ve only had two games in which they’ve gone above the opponent’s average allowed yards per run, once versus the abysmal Rams, and two weeks ago versus a good Vikings’ run defense, but they were playing from a double-digit deficit for the entire second half. Not since week #7 have they thrown for more yards per pass than an opponent usually allows, a very poor span of 6 consecutive games, 5 of which saw them throw for less than 5 yards per pass attempt.

      In spite of their equal 7-6 records, these are really teams moving in opposite directions right now. Speaking of week #7, that was the last time the Bears beat a team with a winning record, the Vikings. Over the last 6 games the Bears have been outscored by more than 3 points per game, while the Saints have outscored their opponent’s by 4, and with a tougher schedule to boot.

      Clearly, the wrong team is favored in this game and the cold weather alone won’t be enough to slow down and stop the Saints from winning a key game in the wildcard race. Drew Brees works harder than any other quarterback in the league in preparing for each game, and on a short week that may be an even bigger advantage he has versus Kyle Orton, who will once again be following in Drew’s wake after this game.

      Final Score Prediction: Saints 24 – Bears 20
      I'm going the other way, but hell of a write up!

      Although I don't believe the Saints Defense has improved very much, especially on the road. Even at home in their last two they let up 29 & 25 and the Falcons left a ton of points on the field (imo). Lets look at their road games for a moment: They let up 29 @ WASH, 34 @ DEN, 30 @ CAR, 34 @ ATL, 20 @ KC, and 23 @ TB. Their offensive competition has declined. KC and TB are not teams known for pouring on the points!
      Comment
      • demize21
        SBR MVP
        • 11-03-08
        • 3541

        #4
        Originally posted by bypp
        Still not sure which way I'm going with this one. The one thing that throws me off is that NO just seems to be a different team on the road. GL with your bet, I enjoyed the writeup.
        as well as major diffrent outdoors, on grass, weather below 40 degrees, which it will be around 20 chance of flurries wind 5-15 mph nw wind totally opposite for bears this is home, fair well in these conditions and a big game for them IMO bears win by 4-6

        my pick bears -3 1.5units
        also bought .5 in case its a little closer 1.5units
        BOL
        Comment
        • Sports Cruncher
          SBR Hustler
          • 12-10-08
          • 98

          #5
          Below average weather conditions don't make a less skilled team any more skilled. Really poor weather conditions give more value to the team getting points. Orton may have some practice squad experience in cold weather -- it's not like he's started many games in December in Chicago over the years! I guess he's closer to his collegiate experience at Purdue than Drew is, though, lol. The worse the weather, the more likely I am to bet the Bears' Team Total Under
          Comment
          • irishdude
            SBR High Roller
            • 11-05-08
            • 103

            #6
            weather 29 degress wind 8 -10 mph dry not bad weather in a stadium
            Comment
            • eidolon
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 01-02-08
              • 9531

              #7
              mini bears, win by 10
              Comment
              • demize21
                SBR MVP
                • 11-03-08
                • 3541

                #8
                Originally posted by demize21
                as well as major diffrent outdoors, on grass, weather below 40 degrees, which it will be around 20 chance of flurries wind 5-15 mph nw wind totally opposite for bears this is home, fair well in these conditions and a big game for them IMO bears win by 4-6

                my pick bears -3 1.5units
                also bought .5 in case its a little closer 1.5units
                BOL
                still a winner
                Comment
                • Sports Cruncher
                  SBR Hustler
                  • 12-10-08
                  • 98

                  #9
                  Patriots @ Raiders “Riding the Fade Train”

                  The Patriots’ Fade Train has paid off handsomely the last two weeks, with neither game receiving so much as a scare down the 4th quarter stretch. The Steelers outscored the Patriots 23-0 in the 2nd half for a convincing 23 point victory as small road dogs, while the Patriots had to score the last 11 points of the game last week at Seattle just to win the game, which didn’t result in a cover for them, as the line went from an opener of near 4 points up to an unbelievable 7.5 before kickoff (and no, Seneca Wallace starting at QB didn’t come even close to justifying that kind of line move as he had a hell of a good day, garnering a 129 passer rating versus Cassel’s 84). On the strength of these last two wins, the Patriots’ Fade Train I’ve been riding since week #3 is firmly in the black. It’s humorous, but true – I’ve bet against the Patriots in every game since backing them as dogs versus the Jets in week #2. Last year with all of the inflated spreads it was almost the same story: betting against the Patriots every week. Last year we were initially punished as the Patriots continued to cover the large spreads for a while, but we got it all back and then some as I believe they only covered one game for something like the final third of their season.

                  Not all stops on the Fade Train are appealing as others. The station in Oakland is decrepit from the abuse that visiting teams often inflict on the lowly Raiders. Wandering through this graffiti covered, mystery stained, reeking mostly of what would have to be guessed as stale urine train station can leave one wondering if perhaps this is the week to take a Greyhound bus and just hope that someone doesn’t decapitate you and feast on your skull mid trip (true story for those of you who didn’t see the story in the news earlier this year, lol). Well, pull up your Dickies, put on your Carhart overalls, and lace up your Timberlands, because we are not about to get off the Patriots’ Fade Train this week.

                  An opening caveat: The Raiders this year may be the worst first half team in the history of the NFL! They’ve only scored one offensive touchdown in the first half in 13 games this season. They’ve been outscored by their special teams unit who have a punt and kick return touchdown in the first half. Slow starts have been incredibly damaging to the Raiders’ hopes of winning many games, and not just for the obvious reason that the team with more points wins, lol. The Raiders are, of course, a run-first team. They do it moderately well. They are not, by any stretch of the imagination, a passing team. They have the worst pass offense in the league. They could attack an unsuspecting nudist colony and still lose the ensuing battle, such is their lack of weapons in the passing game. Not once this season have they been able to overcome a deficit of any number in the second half for a win, such is the impotency of their passing game. The key, therefore, will be for them to keep the game close so they can run the ball effectively and have a believable play action. Here’s why they should be able to…

                  The Patriots will be heavily favoring the run themselves this week. The weak half of the Raiders’ defense is their run defense, and teams have exploited that all season long. The Raiders have only once kept a team below 100 yards rushing this season, and that was in week #2 at Kansas City, a game which the Raiders led pretty much from wire to wire, which also happened to be only game in which a Raiders’ opponent ran the ball less than 20 times. The Patriots have done a pretty good job running on any but the top tier run defenses.

                  Matt Cassel’s father tragically passed away, and Matt just returned to practice on Thursday, leaving him not much time to prep for a good pass defense. Every game is of critical importance for the Patriots’ playoff chances, so I expect the Patriots to employ a mostly conservative passing game to complement their running game. Wes Welker will get his usual dozen short catches or so, lol.

                  The Patriots’ defense is starting to look like a halftime “Let’s honor the old players” program. Junior Seau, Roosevelt Colvin, shoot…I’m not even going to blink twice if I see Troy Brown at cornerback at some point during the game. The injuries started in the secondary, crept up into the linebacking corps and have now infected the defensive line. The result? 134 yards of rushing for the Seahawks last week. The Patriots really need Vince Wilfork back at nose tackle this game, and he’s still “?” after leaving last game with an injury and not returning. Either way, players playing injured can only be lower than their optimal level, not better.

                  As the game should be played pretty close to the vest, with scoring hopefully not coming in fits or bunches for the Patriots (though the Raiders can certainly yak up a bunch via botched special teams plays or turnovers), I’m thinking they keep the game close enough so they aren’t limited to 15 rushes like they were versus the Chargers last week. The Raiders, on rare occasion, have also been known to throw a nice play action pass for good yards, and they should have numerous opportunities to do so in this game. Versus an injury plagued defense that will be looking to stop the run first, the Raiders really, really need to take advantage with the passing game to keep the Patriots’ defense honest. As bad as the Raiders’ passing game has been, I think they’ll be able to do enough in this game.

                  Darren McFadden is mostly back from injury, but he had only one carry for no gain last week. So is he really healed up? I don’t know. Left tackle lame Kwame Harris has finally been benched, and Mario Henderson will get the start again, and the offense has been better with Mario. The Raiders’ wide receiving corps has had injuries of their own this season. Rumor has it the Raiders will use a two tight end set more this week for both running and passing plays. JaMarcus Russell will be sporting a gimpy ankle this week, and his mobility at times is a more dangerous weapon than his arm. The Patriots may dial up a little more pressure early and test that ankle to see how it’s holding up.

                  To conclude: The Patriots are on the West coast for a second consecutive week, late in the season when fatigue begins to be a factor, with a defense comprised of many aging and/ or reactivated veterans. Current Patriots/ex Raiders Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan will have a little extra motivation this game – it remains to be seen if the Raiders’ defense will be a little extra motivated to shut them down. I think they will be motivated – not just to shut down the former players, but the entire Patriots’ team, because they are the Patriots, after all, and they and their hated coach have had large targets on their backs for many years running now. I think a few big run and pass plays propel the home team to victory. Once we’re sitting comfortably again on he Patriots’ Fade Train counting our cash we’ll laugh at how the poor conditions of the Oakland station didn’t turn out to be so bad after all.

                  Final Score Prediction: Patriots 20 – Raiders 21

                  The play was recommended to subscribers at +7.5 when the line opened. The line is currently +6.5 at most shops. In spite of my upset optimism, I’d buy the hook up to +7 if necessary, which is always a good move for the usual 10 cents.
                  Comment
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