Vegas Dave's Philosophy Picks 12/07 (16 - 5 YTD)
At an absurd 16 - 5, I will not take offense if you fade these to close out the season, as hitting over 75% on my best picks is a tad ridiculous. But here they are in all of their glory;
Houston (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5)
You rarely see a philosophy pick for a favorite, especially a big one. But on one side you have Houston coming off of a win over a division rival on Monday night football now playing a road game against an out of conference opponent; pretty clear cut letdown situation. On the flip side, you have a Green Bay team that just lost as a home favorite and is now playing another home game that they need to redeem themselves in. Letdown VS. Rebound, doesn't get a whole lot better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
New York Jets (-4.0) @ San Francisco (+4.0)
This one pains me quite a bit. The Jets fell to Denver last week as I predicted, but that was in large part due to being out shot in the passing game. I don't really see San Francisco having the firepower to keep up. And shouldn't the Jets be extra focused after getting a wake-up call last week? -4.0 makes no sense, and it has resulted in EVERYONE betting on the Jets this week. Everyone. And the reasoning is the same across the board; "They lost last week, they won't let it happen again, they will crush a much weaker San Francisco team". I can't disagree, but bookmakers knew this is how people would think and could have easily made Jets -7.0 and still got great action. They like San Fran here. Build off the Buffalo win with added confidence while the Jets suffer a hangover from the loss? Jets can't travel west (losses to Oakland and San Diego already)? Whatever. If bookmakers San Fran this much, I'll just hold my nose and dive in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
One extra pick, not an official philosophy pick, but one that I like a lot and has some philosophy tendencies for sure;
Miami @ Buffalo (Pick'em)
It pains me to take Buffalo here, as Miami is the better team without a doubt in my mind. But Buffalo losing to a big underdog last week at home now playing at home again is scary, Miami needing this game more and being on the road against a division rival is scary, the way Miami has kept games close against awful teams (4 point win over StL, 2 point win over Oak, 2 point win over Sea) is scary, and a warm weather team heading up to a cold climate is scary. So unless you are a fan of horror movies, I'd say Miami is a little too scary to pick this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
There they are. Good luck this week!
Houston (+5.5) @ Green Bay (-5.5)
You rarely see a philosophy pick for a favorite, especially a big one. But on one side you have Houston coming off of a win over a division rival on Monday night football now playing a road game against an out of conference opponent; pretty clear cut letdown situation. On the flip side, you have a Green Bay team that just lost as a home favorite and is now playing another home game that they need to redeem themselves in. Letdown VS. Rebound, doesn't get a whole lot better.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^Green Bay
New York Jets (-4.0) @ San Francisco (+4.0)
This one pains me quite a bit. The Jets fell to Denver last week as I predicted, but that was in large part due to being out shot in the passing game. I don't really see San Francisco having the firepower to keep up. And shouldn't the Jets be extra focused after getting a wake-up call last week? -4.0 makes no sense, and it has resulted in EVERYONE betting on the Jets this week. Everyone. And the reasoning is the same across the board; "They lost last week, they won't let it happen again, they will crush a much weaker San Francisco team". I can't disagree, but bookmakers knew this is how people would think and could have easily made Jets -7.0 and still got great action. They like San Fran here. Build off the Buffalo win with added confidence while the Jets suffer a hangover from the loss? Jets can't travel west (losses to Oakland and San Diego already)? Whatever. If bookmakers San Fran this much, I'll just hold my nose and dive in.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: ^*San Francisco
One extra pick, not an official philosophy pick, but one that I like a lot and has some philosophy tendencies for sure;
Miami @ Buffalo (Pick'em)
It pains me to take Buffalo here, as Miami is the better team without a doubt in my mind. But Buffalo losing to a big underdog last week at home now playing at home again is scary, Miami needing this game more and being on the road against a division rival is scary, the way Miami has kept games close against awful teams (4 point win over StL, 2 point win over Oak, 2 point win over Sea) is scary, and a warm weather team heading up to a cold climate is scary. So unless you are a fan of horror movies, I'd say Miami is a little too scary to pick this week.
PICK WITH THE SPREAD: Buffalo
PICK WITHOUT THE SPREAD: Buffalo
There they are. Good luck this week!