Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
Playing prognosticator in any sport is difficult, but in a multi-faceted sport such as football it can be just plain frustrating. Maybe sharing my thoughts on what’s proven to help me in the past can be of assistance to others. If you feel like you have a general and well groomed understanding of the game and what each team is going to do coming into the game, it can narrow your focus on what statistics to highlight in hopes of finding an edge for one team, one way or another. Statistics can be a tricky subject – when to pay attention to some and when to disregard others. Shall we?
When looking into this matchup a good place to start is on the offensive side of the ball, for both teams. With the emergence of a somewhat balanced attack from the Broncos is recent weeks, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly where the success has come from. However, the fact is that Knowshon & Co. have been increasingly effective in running the ball is not as cryptic. More effective than usual days on the ground against the Chargers, Bucs and Ravens in the second half of the season points to an improving balance with #18 under center.
Vs. Chargers: 133 yds, 5.3 yds/rush - - - Chargers defense averages: 96.4 yds/gm and 3.8 yds/rush
Vs. Tampa Bay: 91 yds, 3.1 yds/rush - - - Tampa Bay defense averages: 82.5 yds/gm and 3.5 yds/rush
@ Baltimore: 163 yds, 3.6 yds/rush - - - Baltimore defense averages: 122.8 yds/gm and 4.0 yds/rush
You could argue that the yds/rush in the latter two examples shows that the Broncos rushing attack isn’t much to write home about but there is another way of looking at it. I think it speaks to a new kind of philosophy within the offense that understands Peyton’s arm – and thus the Broncos – only benefit from having more of an equally weighted attack. Whether the yards a team gains rushing come from first down (when most defenses are playing a percentage game and expecting run), short yardage third downs (again, another % play expecting a rush) or when they’re rushing to finish off a game, we can all agree that yards rushing are valuable. Denver proving down the stretch that they can run the ball effectively against the 5th, 1st, and 7th (respectively) most efficient defenses at stopping the run is a good sign for OC Mike McCoy. The link from rushing the ball effectively to the passing game is not a complicated one, so I’ll try to be brief. When you combine the 2nd most accurate passing offense (68.4%) and the most efficient passing offense (I use Net Yards/Pass Attempt) with a running game that most certainly has found its stride, the combination is almost always deadly. With this in mind I think we can expect an efficient afternoon from Peyton and his crew after a week off to work on their timing and offensive schemes – ultimately sharpening what has already proven to be an extremely sharp offense.
Joe Flacco’s Ravens might have it a little bit harder on Saturday but let’s break it down a bit further to see why. Mile High City, thin air, not sure on the percentages but with both kickers having above average leg’s for the NFL and baring any significant wind, we can expect a high percentage of the drives off Denver scores to be beginning on the 20. Put yourself in OC Jim Caldwell’s shoes when his offense first takes the field. The pass rush options that Denver possesses are very unique as they have two Pro-Bowl caliber and well rested pass rushers in Dumervil and Miller. Bringing pressure off the edge in obvious passing situations is going to happen, especially when they are lining up against a less than stellar OL that is making positional changes on the fly as they enter this contest. This allows Denver to vary its blitzing packages and is sure to keep Mr. Flacco guessing as to where to expect pressure. One way to deal with the inevitable pressure is to use check-downs and draw plays early to slow the pass rush but only to a point. All great defenses are able to adapt and I expect Denver to do much of the same even if they might struggle on the first few defensive possessions. An offense that rushed for a sub-par 2.9 yds/rush for a total of 59 yds in the Week 15 meeting @ Baltimore doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in suggesting that they will be able to be exponentially better come Saturday. This all means that the burden of carrying the offense in all likelihood is going to come down on Joe’s shoulders, and the stats don’t make me a believer. Using the same statistics as above for Peyton and the Denver offense you get an idea of the size of rabbit JF needs to pull out of his helmet. Throwing for a sub-60, 59.6% completion percentage and mirroring a league average 6.3 NY/PA leaves the Baltimore offense in a hard place. If a hard place is not enough and one would be inclined to look for a rock as well, then look no further than the 1st downs by pass stat. In what we can come to expect as a number of 3rd and longer situations facing the Ravens on Saturday, Baltimore threw for 182 first downs this year. That number is good for 18th league-wide and out of the remaining playoff teams it leaves only the efficient running styles of San Francisco and Seattle behind them. Now, some if not most of this could be overlooked if JF had a receiving corps that wreaked of experience and big-game players that just ‘got it’ and knew how to come up big in the moment. I’m not sure if that’s the case, and even if it was, with Elvis and Von breathing down Flacco’s neck on passing downs I’m not sure if the WR’s will have the luxury of running complicated and longer routes that will no doubt be needed to keep this offense on the field.
All the best with whatever you choose to play this weekend.
Playing prognosticator in any sport is difficult, but in a multi-faceted sport such as football it can be just plain frustrating. Maybe sharing my thoughts on what’s proven to help me in the past can be of assistance to others. If you feel like you have a general and well groomed understanding of the game and what each team is going to do coming into the game, it can narrow your focus on what statistics to highlight in hopes of finding an edge for one team, one way or another. Statistics can be a tricky subject – when to pay attention to some and when to disregard others. Shall we?
When looking into this matchup a good place to start is on the offensive side of the ball, for both teams. With the emergence of a somewhat balanced attack from the Broncos is recent weeks, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly where the success has come from. However, the fact is that Knowshon & Co. have been increasingly effective in running the ball is not as cryptic. More effective than usual days on the ground against the Chargers, Bucs and Ravens in the second half of the season points to an improving balance with #18 under center.
Vs. Chargers: 133 yds, 5.3 yds/rush - - - Chargers defense averages: 96.4 yds/gm and 3.8 yds/rush
Vs. Tampa Bay: 91 yds, 3.1 yds/rush - - - Tampa Bay defense averages: 82.5 yds/gm and 3.5 yds/rush
@ Baltimore: 163 yds, 3.6 yds/rush - - - Baltimore defense averages: 122.8 yds/gm and 4.0 yds/rush
You could argue that the yds/rush in the latter two examples shows that the Broncos rushing attack isn’t much to write home about but there is another way of looking at it. I think it speaks to a new kind of philosophy within the offense that understands Peyton’s arm – and thus the Broncos – only benefit from having more of an equally weighted attack. Whether the yards a team gains rushing come from first down (when most defenses are playing a percentage game and expecting run), short yardage third downs (again, another % play expecting a rush) or when they’re rushing to finish off a game, we can all agree that yards rushing are valuable. Denver proving down the stretch that they can run the ball effectively against the 5th, 1st, and 7th (respectively) most efficient defenses at stopping the run is a good sign for OC Mike McCoy. The link from rushing the ball effectively to the passing game is not a complicated one, so I’ll try to be brief. When you combine the 2nd most accurate passing offense (68.4%) and the most efficient passing offense (I use Net Yards/Pass Attempt) with a running game that most certainly has found its stride, the combination is almost always deadly. With this in mind I think we can expect an efficient afternoon from Peyton and his crew after a week off to work on their timing and offensive schemes – ultimately sharpening what has already proven to be an extremely sharp offense.
Joe Flacco’s Ravens might have it a little bit harder on Saturday but let’s break it down a bit further to see why. Mile High City, thin air, not sure on the percentages but with both kickers having above average leg’s for the NFL and baring any significant wind, we can expect a high percentage of the drives off Denver scores to be beginning on the 20. Put yourself in OC Jim Caldwell’s shoes when his offense first takes the field. The pass rush options that Denver possesses are very unique as they have two Pro-Bowl caliber and well rested pass rushers in Dumervil and Miller. Bringing pressure off the edge in obvious passing situations is going to happen, especially when they are lining up against a less than stellar OL that is making positional changes on the fly as they enter this contest. This allows Denver to vary its blitzing packages and is sure to keep Mr. Flacco guessing as to where to expect pressure. One way to deal with the inevitable pressure is to use check-downs and draw plays early to slow the pass rush but only to a point. All great defenses are able to adapt and I expect Denver to do much of the same even if they might struggle on the first few defensive possessions. An offense that rushed for a sub-par 2.9 yds/rush for a total of 59 yds in the Week 15 meeting @ Baltimore doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence in suggesting that they will be able to be exponentially better come Saturday. This all means that the burden of carrying the offense in all likelihood is going to come down on Joe’s shoulders, and the stats don’t make me a believer. Using the same statistics as above for Peyton and the Denver offense you get an idea of the size of rabbit JF needs to pull out of his helmet. Throwing for a sub-60, 59.6% completion percentage and mirroring a league average 6.3 NY/PA leaves the Baltimore offense in a hard place. If a hard place is not enough and one would be inclined to look for a rock as well, then look no further than the 1st downs by pass stat. In what we can come to expect as a number of 3rd and longer situations facing the Ravens on Saturday, Baltimore threw for 182 first downs this year. That number is good for 18th league-wide and out of the remaining playoff teams it leaves only the efficient running styles of San Francisco and Seattle behind them. Now, some if not most of this could be overlooked if JF had a receiving corps that wreaked of experience and big-game players that just ‘got it’ and knew how to come up big in the moment. I’m not sure if that’s the case, and even if it was, with Elvis and Von breathing down Flacco’s neck on passing downs I’m not sure if the WR’s will have the luxury of running complicated and longer routes that will no doubt be needed to keep this offense on the field.
All the best with whatever you choose to play this weekend.