Laxdjock's Week 13 NFL Bets (26-16 ATS)

yostertoaster · 11-27-08, 11:37 AM

happy thanksgiving....thanks for your insight....always helpful

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 11:38 AM

ATS Play #2: NY Jets -7.5 (-110) v. Denver @ 4 units

The Basic Stats

NY Jets Offense
343.1 yd per game
131.2 rush yd
211.9 pass yd
29.4 pts/game

Denver Offense
382.5 yd per game
109.5 rush yd
273 pass yd
23.5 pts/game

~6 pt edge for the Jets. The Jets have a more established running game, but Cutler can cause problems with his feet and arm.

NY Jets Defense
317.4 yd per game
78 rush yd
239.4 pass yd
21.3 pts/game

Denver Defense
380.4 yd per game
144.5 rush yd
235..9 pass yd
27.5 pts/game

Another 6 pt advantage for the Jets. The difference maker is the 78 yds per game the Jets give up. Look for Denver to try and establish the run [with little success]. If Denver is put in many passing downs, look for the Jets to tee off and add to their impress sack total thus far.

Stats of Interest
DEN 3rd Down Defense: 44.6% conversion
JETS 3rd Down Defense: 38.9% conversion

Denver has problems against 3rd down, while the Jets have shown an ability to convert (45%). Denver is 2nd in the league in 3rd down conversions (nearly 48%), so it should be interesting to see how each team handles these critical plays. My hunch is the Jets lean on the run, though will go deep at least once to try and catch the Denver secondary sleeping. Denver can be effective in the flats, so look for Cutler to scramble and look for quick conversions when the running game stalls.

DEN Def. Passer Rating: 102.3
JETS Def. Passer Rating: 87.7

Denver is bad against the pass….this is no surprise. While Brett Favre is not the same guy from 5-6 years ago, he can still kill a defense if you give him time. Denver has a hard time creating sacks (only 20 all season), so look for Favre to have plenty of time to pick apart the Denver secondary using a variety of play action passes. He is still one of the best in the league at disguising the play action pass.

Speaking of Favre….he has a 94.1 passer rating for the year (6th best), and while he is 7-5 TD/INT in his last 5 games, he has 3 straight games of 100+ rating, and his rushing offense has scored 9 rushing TD in the same timeframe. Look for a health dose of running against a porous Denver defense that surrenders nearly 145 rushing yards per game.

Cutler is 7-7 TD/INT with 2 100+ rating, though the 3 other games he has averaged 58% average. Over those 5 games his rushing attack has only mustered 4 rushing TDs. Denver lives and dies by Cutler. They have a piece meal rushing attack that is up against one of the best rush defenses in the league (78/yd per game). The Jets also have 35 sacks as a team, which is one of the highest totals in the league.

Keys To The Game

1. NY Jets establishing the run. Favre will be less likely to give the ball away if Jones and company can take advantage of Denver’s poor run defense. If Denver can move Favre around and create some turnovers, they have a shot.
2. Speaking of turnovers…Denver is one of the worst in the league for Take away / Give away (10 v 22, for -12)…while the Jets are even. Look for the NY Jets to win this battle by at least 2 TOs.
3. The Denver offense averages 23.5 pts a game, but they will need to score 30+ to beat the Jets, who are the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 29.4 pts per game.
4. Special teams. This matchup pits two of the best return guys in the league against each other (Royal vs. Washington), so both kickoff teams will have their work cut out for them. These teams are a wash for net punt returns, though the edge in FG kicking favors the Jets.

guru-t · 11-27-08, 11:45 AM

I'm riding with you on the Jets.You did a great job last week.GL laxdjock's.I hate the L word!HAHA!

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 12:25 PM

ATS Play #3: Tenn v Det o43.5 (-110) @ 2 units
I think DET hangs around in this game.....17-21 pts total.

I think Tenn wins 27-17.

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 12:29 PM

*Free Bet*
I had a free NFL Tgiving Parlay play at BP, so I took:

AZ +3
DET + 11ish?
DAL -12.5

I don't trust DAL @ 12.5, but free is free....so YMMV. Favorites tend to cover on Tgiving, but I don't like Philly and Det has a puncher's chance.

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 01:53 PM

Well....there goes another "free" parlay. I'm 0-3 in them....

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 03:37 PM

I forgot to add my TENN ov.10.5 (-125) 2H 2 units here...but it cashes anyway!

ATS Play #3: Tenn v Det o43.5 (-110) @ 2 units WIN
ATS Play #4: Tenn o10.5 (-125) 2H @ 2 units WIN

ATS: 2-0, +4 units
Freebie Parlay: 0-1.....

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 03:56 PM

ATS Play #5: Dal -11 (-110) v. Sea @ 2 units
ATS Play #6: Dal v. Sea o46 (-108) @ 2 units

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 04:06 PM

ATS Play #7: Dal -7 (-115) v. Sea 1H @ 2 units
I was tempted by -3 1Q (thinking 7-3 Dal), but just in case it takes a couple series to open it up, I'm taking the half. 17-7 1H is my conservative guess. I wouldn't be surprised if it is 24-7.

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 05:25 PM

So far so good DAL.......

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 06:57 PM

ATS Play #8: Dal v. Sea o21 (-115) 2H @ 2 units
I had this on my spreadsheet and the game thread, but I forgot to put it here.

ATS Play #9: AZ v. Philly ML (+145) @ 4 units
I'm slamming this, but play of the weekend.

laxdjock · 11-27-08, 08:29 PM

ATS Play #3: Tenn v Det o43.5 (-110) @ 2 units WIN
ATS Play #4: Tenn o10.5 (-125) 2H @ 2 units WIN
ATS Play #5: Dal -11 (-110) v. Sea @ 2 units WIN
ATS Play #6: Dal v. Sea o46 (-108) @ 2 units LOSS

ATS: 3-1, +4 units