NFL Betting Review: On the road again
Homefield advantage isn't such an advantage this season in terms of beating the spread after road teams continued their assault at the window in Week 12. Teams that traveled this past week cashed at a 10-5-1 rate, including a 5-0-1 mark for away favorites. One of the home teams to fall was Tennessee as the Titans suffered their first loss of the season, dropping a 34-13 decision to Brett Favre and the Jets.
Remember when homefield advantage meant more than getting to pick which color jersey to wear?
The way things are going in NFL betting this season, that’s what will be left of running out of the tunnel to a huge roar of the crowd. Away teams continued their immense profitability this season in Week 12, as road squads are now 100-73-3 ATS (58%) versus the betting odds. The money is especially rolling for away favorites, who are 34-17-1 against the number after an amazing 5-0-1 mark ATS last week. The verdict is in with five weeks to go before the playoffs: After going 10-5-1 ATS overall in Week 12, it’s time to start focusing on some sharp plays on road teams before the public catches on.
Tampa Bay made quick work of Detroit in its 38-20 win at Ford Field as 9-point favorites. Jeff Garcia was an efficient 13-of-18 for 165 yards with two touchdowns for the Buccaneers, who held Daunte Culpepper and the Lions (0-11, 4-7 ATS) air attack to a measly 99 yards. Tampa is now tied atop the treacherous NFC South at 8-3 (7-4 ATS) with Carolina (8-3, 5-5-1 ATS), which fell 45-28 at Atlanta (7-4, 7-4 ATS). Matt Ryan made the Falcons (-1) one of the rare home favorites to make money in Week 12, as the rookie quarterback threw for 259 yards to lead Atlanta backers to the payday.
Topping the Falcons’ offensive explosion was Buffalo, which embarrassed Kansas City 54-31 as 3-point road faves. What were the books smoking? Yes, the Bills have struggled as of late, but there’s no way they should have been giving only a field goal to the hapless Chiefs (1-10, 5-6 ATS). Kansas City actually did better on the scoreboard than it did in the boxscore, as the Chiefs allowed a first down literally every second minute. Trent Edwards went 24-of-32 for 273 yards with two TDs for the Bills (6-5, 5-6 ATS), who still have a shot of making the playoffs despite trailing both New England (7-4, 6-5 ATS) and Miami (6-5, 5-6 ATS) in the AFC East.
The books pretty much had it right prior to the Patriots 48-28 drilling of the Dolphins as 1-point road favorites. Everything except for the Matt Cassell part, that is. Cassell put together his second consecutive 400-yard passing game to lead New England to the bank at Miami. The Pats’ run defense deserves some credit as well – they held Ronnie Brown to 37 yards on 10 attempts – as does Randy Moss, who made a mess of the Dolphins’ secondary (eight receptions, 125 yards, three touchdowns).
The only other defensive backfield that had as tough of a time was Tennessee (10-1, 9-2 ATS), which saw its perfect season come to a close at the hands of Brett Favre and the New York Jets (8-3, 7-4 ATS) in a 34-13 loss. The Jets (+5½) held the Titans to only 45 yards rushing as Kerry Collins actually outgained his opponent from the 1996 NFC Championship Game.
The New York Giants proved oddsmakers right once again in their 37-29 win at Arizona. The Giants (-3) improved to a conference-best 10-1 (9-2 ATS) without Brandon Jacobs, who sat with a knee injury. New York is now the safest wager in the league along with Tennessee, as the Cardinals (7-4, 7-4 ATS) couldn’t run the ball to save their lives against the Giants.
The other away favorite to earn was Chicago, which smoked St. Louis 27-3 while giving a touchdown to the Rams (2-9, 3-8 ATS). The Bears improved to 6-5 (5-5-1 ATS), and now lead the airtight NFC North along with Minnesota (6-5, 4-7 ATS). The Vikings almost became part of the story with their 30-12 victory at Jacksonville (4-7, 3-8 ATS), but most books pegged them at +1 just before kickoff.
Over in the NFC East, Washington needed a fourth-quarter field goal from Shaun Suisham to get by Seattle (2-9, 4-6-1 ATS) 20-17. The Redskins failed to cover as 3-point faves, becoming the only road team giving points to miss the mark for bettors in Week 12. Washington is now tied with Dallas (7-4, 5-6 ATS) in the division, although the Redskins have lost one fewer game against the number than the Cowboys.
Homefield advantage isn't such an advantage this season in terms of beating the spread after road teams continued their assault at the window in Week 12. Teams that traveled this past week cashed at a 10-5-1 rate, including a 5-0-1 mark for away favorites. One of the home teams to fall was Tennessee as the Titans suffered their first loss of the season, dropping a 34-13 decision to Brett Favre and the Jets.
Remember when homefield advantage meant more than getting to pick which color jersey to wear?
The way things are going in NFL betting this season, that’s what will be left of running out of the tunnel to a huge roar of the crowd. Away teams continued their immense profitability this season in Week 12, as road squads are now 100-73-3 ATS (58%) versus the betting odds. The money is especially rolling for away favorites, who are 34-17-1 against the number after an amazing 5-0-1 mark ATS last week. The verdict is in with five weeks to go before the playoffs: After going 10-5-1 ATS overall in Week 12, it’s time to start focusing on some sharp plays on road teams before the public catches on.
Tampa Bay made quick work of Detroit in its 38-20 win at Ford Field as 9-point favorites. Jeff Garcia was an efficient 13-of-18 for 165 yards with two touchdowns for the Buccaneers, who held Daunte Culpepper and the Lions (0-11, 4-7 ATS) air attack to a measly 99 yards. Tampa is now tied atop the treacherous NFC South at 8-3 (7-4 ATS) with Carolina (8-3, 5-5-1 ATS), which fell 45-28 at Atlanta (7-4, 7-4 ATS). Matt Ryan made the Falcons (-1) one of the rare home favorites to make money in Week 12, as the rookie quarterback threw for 259 yards to lead Atlanta backers to the payday.
Topping the Falcons’ offensive explosion was Buffalo, which embarrassed Kansas City 54-31 as 3-point road faves. What were the books smoking? Yes, the Bills have struggled as of late, but there’s no way they should have been giving only a field goal to the hapless Chiefs (1-10, 5-6 ATS). Kansas City actually did better on the scoreboard than it did in the boxscore, as the Chiefs allowed a first down literally every second minute. Trent Edwards went 24-of-32 for 273 yards with two TDs for the Bills (6-5, 5-6 ATS), who still have a shot of making the playoffs despite trailing both New England (7-4, 6-5 ATS) and Miami (6-5, 5-6 ATS) in the AFC East.
The books pretty much had it right prior to the Patriots 48-28 drilling of the Dolphins as 1-point road favorites. Everything except for the Matt Cassell part, that is. Cassell put together his second consecutive 400-yard passing game to lead New England to the bank at Miami. The Pats’ run defense deserves some credit as well – they held Ronnie Brown to 37 yards on 10 attempts – as does Randy Moss, who made a mess of the Dolphins’ secondary (eight receptions, 125 yards, three touchdowns).
The only other defensive backfield that had as tough of a time was Tennessee (10-1, 9-2 ATS), which saw its perfect season come to a close at the hands of Brett Favre and the New York Jets (8-3, 7-4 ATS) in a 34-13 loss. The Jets (+5½) held the Titans to only 45 yards rushing as Kerry Collins actually outgained his opponent from the 1996 NFC Championship Game.
The New York Giants proved oddsmakers right once again in their 37-29 win at Arizona. The Giants (-3) improved to a conference-best 10-1 (9-2 ATS) without Brandon Jacobs, who sat with a knee injury. New York is now the safest wager in the league along with Tennessee, as the Cardinals (7-4, 7-4 ATS) couldn’t run the ball to save their lives against the Giants.
The other away favorite to earn was Chicago, which smoked St. Louis 27-3 while giving a touchdown to the Rams (2-9, 3-8 ATS). The Bears improved to 6-5 (5-5-1 ATS), and now lead the airtight NFC North along with Minnesota (6-5, 4-7 ATS). The Vikings almost became part of the story with their 30-12 victory at Jacksonville (4-7, 3-8 ATS), but most books pegged them at +1 just before kickoff.
Over in the NFC East, Washington needed a fourth-quarter field goal from Shaun Suisham to get by Seattle (2-9, 4-6-1 ATS) 20-17. The Redskins failed to cover as 3-point faves, becoming the only road team giving points to miss the mark for bettors in Week 12. Washington is now tied with Dallas (7-4, 5-6 ATS) in the division, although the Redskins have lost one fewer game against the number than the Cowboys.