Week 13 plays. 48-26-2 since Week 8. Documented.

[MobFade]

http://mobfade.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

Previous thread from Sunday night I locked down:

SF-6.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
DEN-6.5-110 // BOOKMAKER
HOU-4.5-110 // BOOKMAKER


Public plays at the beginning of the week, non-public on gameday after public moves the line. Shopping for the best lines, beating the closing line, getting on the right side of key numbers, knowing when to buy on/off those key numbers, and getting line value on teams out of the public favor are enough to beat the NFL. These picks are just sugar on top of all that, but also happen to be winning at a 65% clip.

Current leans for next week are:

San Diego at home against an over performing Cincy team. Last week BAL was PK in SD. CIN @ SD-1 has moved to SD +1.5. Not only is BAL a better team than CIN giving us a couple points of line value, but SD is a highly competent team. CIN is very public right now, but look for SD to win this outright. I'll be waiting to see how far the public moves this line, maybe enough to buy SD onto the 3.


Atlanta hosting NO. If you got NO+3.5 that's not terrible, but line has moved to ATL-3-125. Look for this to keep moving as the public loads up on a lopsided NO team. I'll be waiting for a spot to get ATL-3-110. Atlanta has looked weak for their record in the last 3 weeks, but the turnovers that have made them look so bad the last couple weeks have not been trend items but for those 2 games. ATL-3-110 is a line that means ATL and NO are equally good, which is not true. Also, ATL has an above average HFA, so I'd look for them to cover this easily.

More leans as the week goes on.

[MobFade]

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/2041224-week-13-opening-lines-grab-now.html

Thread documenting opening plays Sunday before week 13

[alexschillig]

Dont know why you think the pub will load up on the Saints? I know the Saints won last time out but the Falcons are home and its not like the Saints are playing great that the public loves them lol. If anything the Falcons impressive win over Tampa might get the pub to be on Atl and not NO.

[alexschillig]

Also I get the pub will be all over Cincy, but to say they are over performing is not correct. If you have been watching their games at all they are outplaying their opponents and the blowouts havnt been flukes. They are the definition of a hot team right now. San Diego is coming off such a devastating loss that it might have torn the heart and soul of this team apart. Cincy is not in a position to lose they know its now or never if they want to get into the playoffs. I see your trying to make the pick on this game look like a "sharp" pick, but if you look at the game a little closer then "The Charger only lost to Baltimore by 3 and Cincy is not better then the Ravens so the Chargers must win!" That pick is flat out silly.

[MobFade]

Cincy wins: NYG, JAX, CLE, KC, OAK, WAS

Their last 3 games have been wins, including a win against the NYG. Maybe over performing was the wrong phrase, but this is a team that everyone thinks is "hot". I would say they beat the NYG and then 2 of the worst teams in the league.

You misunderstand my logic with the CIN/SD line so much that it hurts. BAL opened as PK in SD last week. CIN is a 1.5 point favorite in SD this week. BAL>CIN. Nothing has changed with these teams other than the public perception after SD lost and CIN blew out OAK. This is called line value.

As for public loading up on NO, I was just speaking to the fact that the line moved from +3.5 to 3. I don't know if the public will load up on the Saints, but someone already has and I'm waiting to see if it goes to 3-110.

[jinxpro13]

not sure how much better baltimore is over cincy. on the road atleast.
baltimore hasn't been able to score on the road for seasons now.
san diego won't be able to cover AJ green. Id rather not rely on the chargers ever again this year.
BOL

[MobFade]

Philadelphia just opened +9 at Dallas. I got off the Philly bounce-back bandwagon in Week 7, but this is the week to get back on. Vick and McCoy only questionable. Desean on IR isn't great, but this line could ride out close to 10. Will probably throw DAL in a 7 point with NE.

[MobFade]

New York Giants -2.5 in WAS is pretty nice. NYG won't be back to truly overrated status for another week, WAS has been very public all year even though they lose a lot. People have been saying to fade NYG after the GB blowout, but I think fade WAS is the play. NYG had been great on the road before their pre-bye rut. Some books already in teaser protect at the 1, will wait and see where the public comes in on this. Maybe get NYG-2.

[MobFade]

not sure how much better baltimore is over cincy. on the road atleast.
baltimore hasn't been able to score on the road for seasons now.
san diego won't be able to cover AJ green. Id rather not rely on the chargers ever again this year.
BOL

Thanks. Ya BAL is a home team for sure, but I liked them last week at PK. Chargers are fine in a spot like this because they are a mediocre team that doesn't turn the ball over excessively. In fact, I think SD is one of my favorite plays this week. Also a good line for teasers. SD was able to shut down Ray Rice, Law Firm should be no problem. This could conversely be the week that Mathews gets going.

[alexschillig]

Lines dont move only because what the public does........that has been ur reason everytime

[MobFade]

Lines dont move only because what the public does........that has been ur reason everytime

Lines move mostly during the week because of what the public does. Maybe sharps on the open, but Mon-Sat its the public, and then it takes massive sharp action on gameday to move it again. I say the public is moving lines when I am against a public team because their money IS moving the line a la CIN. NO going from 3.5 to 3 was probably sharp.

Buffalo at home vs JAX. good line value here after BUF loss and JAX win. Public looks to be on JAX based on bet volume and line is inching toward the 5. Will ride this out until the weekend.

Kansas City as a home dog to Carolina. KC has been great at movin the ball all year, they just get wrecked by turnovers. I said I would bet them again once they showed they could consistently hold on to the ball, and a 3 point home dog to a bad CAR team that beat PHI on MNF is the perfect spot. 84% of bets on CAR means we'll hold off for a better number later in the week.

[MobFade]

Seattle +4.5 in CHI. Again, good value here after CHI blowout and SEA loss. As long as SEA can avoid suspension of both starting corners which looks like they will for this week, there is so much to like about SEA here. They match up very well against WRs like Marshall, they can abuse bad lines. Forte would be a matchup problem as SEA is not good against outside the tackle runners, but he as well as Peanut are both questionable. Russell Wilson has been very efficient and hasn't turned the ball over in I believe 4 games now. Turnovers for scores is how CHI has been making their money, but SEA doesn't give it up much. Look for SEA to bounce back and win this one outright after playing sloppy on the road in the loss to MIA.

Detroit hosting an Indy team that has been playing well against bad teams. I might be starting at corner for IND next week, and I can't cover Megatron. Detroit has looked balanced on offense and their defense hasn't been as much of a sieve as it was last year. For IND, Luck has been playing at a high level, but this team is massively overrated and DET-4 is about the right price to sell. Public on IND based on bet volume, so let it ride for now.

[hougigo]

Seattle sucks away from home

[jinxpro13]

Thanks. Ya BAL is a home team for sure, but I liked them last week at PK. Chargers are fine in a spot like this because they are a mediocre team that doesn't turn the ball over excessively. In fact, I think SD is one of my favorite plays this week. Also a good line for teasers. SD was able to shut down Ray Rice, Law Firm should be no problem. This could conversely be the week that Mathews gets going.

Baltimore lucky as fuk to get out of san diego with the win as were you to get them at PK imo. I was on San Diego, so congrats on being on the right side in the end but we both know that was san diego's game. baltimore did dic* all game. San Diego also fukked me earlier in the year in Cleveland. Two strikes, not gonna happen a 3rd time. Chargers = complete mess. you have sound reasoning on them shutting down benjarvus , and I guess I could see this game going either way, but my advice to you would be SCREW THE CHARGERS. making them your fav pick is unkosher

I see ur on seattle this week as well... gotta be careful with these teams that play like shit away from home

[MobFade]

Seattle also hasn't lost by more than a TD. They may not play well on the road, but they cover well as road dogs. Last week was the wake up they needed. CHI overrated again after blowout against previously overrated MIN.

Wouldn't surprise me if this line gets to 6, and that is free money.

[MobFade]

Baltimore lucky as fuk to get out of san diego with the win as were you to get them at PK imo. I was on San Diego, so congrats on being on the right side in the end but we both know that was san diego's game. baltimore did dic* all game. San Diego also fukked me earlier in the year in Cleveland. Two strikes, not gonna happen a 3rd time. Chargers = complete mess. you have sound reasoning on them shutting down benjarvus , and I guess I could see this game going either way, but my advice to you would be SCREW THE CHARGERS. making them your fav pick is unkosher

I see ur on seattle this week as well... gotta be careful with these teams that play like shit away from home

San Diego should have won that game, agreed, and I think they are only slightly worse than CIN. They are competent and I wouldn't rule their offense out if they had to comeback late. Defense is solid up front, only concern will be CIN receivers.

By "favorite play" I mean the one with the best value. I will also throw SD into a teaser because they are a team that's not going to get blown out in this game.

[jinxpro13]

San Diego should have won that game, agreed, and I think they are only slightly worse than CIN. They are competent and I wouldn't rule their offense out if they had to comeback late. Defense is solid up front, only concern will be CIN receivers.

By "favorite play" I mean the one with the best value. I will also throw SD into a teaser because they are a team that's not going to get blown out in this game.

bol boss

i hate the jets more than anything but they are the best value pick this week imo

[MobFade]

New York Jets as a home favorite to ARI. The benching of Skelton for rookie Lindley is a sign that ARI has given up on this season and is in player evaluation mode. NYJ got embarrassed on Thursday but have had some time off. I take Sanchez and some ill-timed Tebow plays over 6th round rookies in their second starts coming off 4-pick games all day. Don't love it at 4.5, but might just have to take it there in a couple days.

Miami is a slight lean right now depending on how close to 10 this line gets. Would like to get MIA+9-110, as well as throw NE in a tease with either DAL or GB to get them around 2 or 2.5. I don't love MIA as a home team, but this is a 7-9 caliber team close to DD dog at home in a division game coming off a rebound win. NE has also not shown up to a couple games this year. I think Miami hangs around in this one similar to BUF earlier this year, and I like the middle Opportunity covering 2-9.

[MobFade]

bol boss

i hate the jets more than anything but they are the best value pick this week imo

Ya not crazy about the hook on 4, but NYJ is a good play this week against ARI and coming off the NE game.

[MobFade]

Consensus out, 63% money on NO means we should get back to a more reasonable 3 on ATL than -3-130 if money keeps coming in on NO+3.5. Keep waiting it out.

[MobFade]

A couple interesting developments.

Reverse line movement looks like sharps are on KC+3 while public is pretty heavily on CAR. I think public continues to pound CAR and we get another crack at KC+3 later in the week.

I don't know how this NYG-2.5 is holding, but it is

PHI has moved to +10.5-115 at legends. Just wow.

SEA and DET have both gotten worse. Going to take the NYG now.

NYG-2.5-110 // BOOKMAKER

[MobFade]

Lock this down:

MIN+9-110 // TOP BET


Clay Matthews still out means Ponder should have time in the pocket. Harvin might be back and AP is AP. like the value here at 9.

[MobFade]

Didn't think it would move like this, but Steam Train leaving the 3 for the 1.5. Top Bet had the last seat for these 2 plays.

SD+3-135
2 Team 6 Point: SD+8.5/SF-1

[Frisco]

New York Giants -2.5 in WAS is pretty nice. NYG won't be back to truly overrated status for another week, WAS has been very public all year even though they lose a lot. People have been saying to fade NYG after the GB blowout, but I think fade WAS is the play. NYG had been great on the road before their pre-bye rut. Some books already in teaser protect at the 1, will wait and see where the public comes in on this. Maybe get NYG-2.

Hate that Andre Brown got hurt. He was a stud for them when Bradshaw needed a break or was hurt.

[MobFade]

Hate that Andre Brown got hurt. He was a stud for them when Bradshaw needed a break or was hurt.

Agreed, but run game doesn't figure to be huge in this game until 4th quarter, so I don't think Bradshaw finishes with even 20 carries. Nicks back and healthier will once again open things up for every other receiver, so expect whatever Giants they don't throw a safety on top of to go for over 100.

As an aside I think now is the time to get on the Chiefs, so locking this down before it goes back to 2.5:

KC+3-110 // BOVADA

I'm also having second thoughts about Miami, as this should be a NE home game in Miami with how few people show up to their games. Will probably throw NE in a teaser and stay away from the spread.

[Frisco]

I was thinking more long term w/ regards to the Brown injury. Like the Giants this week but think their secondary will get tested. Will have to play smart football and not bite on the play fakes

[MobFade]

I was thinking more long term w/ regards to the Brown injury. Like the Giants this week but think their secondary will get tested. Will have to play smart football and not bite on the play fakes

Definitely liked his prototypical size and seeming durability. David Wilson was a waste of a first round pick after TB traded in front of them to get Doug Martin. Would have been better served to address any position in their secondary at end of first.

[Frisco]

Definitely liked his prototypical size and seeming durability. David Wilson was a waste of a first round pick after TB traded in front of them to get Doug Martin. Would have been better served to address any position in their secondary at end of first.

Speaking of secondary didn't Antrel Rolle get banged up last game? Or was that Kenny Phillips?

[MobFade]

Not sure as I stopped watching partway through the 3rd quarter, but Phillips is on injury report as Prob, Rolle not listed.

[MobFade]

Dallas is now the lean instead of PHI with Vick and McCoy doubtful, Desean out, Cox questionable, etc. wouldn't lay 10 on DAL with a gun to my head, but will keep an eye out for -9.5 to throw in a 2 team 7 point with probably NE. First half also an option if it opens under 7.

[MobFade]

I like a couple things I've seen on the board so far. From bank, teasing saints which is do once with DEN and once with SF, probably just 1/2 unit each. Also first half under.

Jeff brought up first half ATL-2.5. At 3 now but will see where that goes.

Stay tuned as I want to see if we can get better value on either side. Hopefully the line does something at one of the books.

[MobFade]

Locked these down. Teasers for 1/2 unit each.

NO+9.5/DEN-1 // TOP BET
NO+9.5/SF-1. // TOP BET
ATL-3-135 // BOVADA

[MobFade]

What a shit show. ATL covering the middle for about 40 mins of that game. Could have paid 20 more cents to be freerolling for half of those teasers. 10 point saints loss is the most frustrating finish to that game that could have happened.

[MobFade]

Haha WTF is this total for PIT/BAL? 34? BAL might hang that themselves. Try not to hurt yourself snapping up:

PIT/BAL OVER 34-110 // TOP BET

Baltimore is also the lean in this game. Probably just tease the shit out of them as I'm not crazy about -8.

[MobFade]

Got a little shitty last night and woke up after sharp money came in. Line movement all over the place:

BAL-7-125 // TOP BET