Monday Night’s matchup between the Carolina Panthers (2-9) and the Philadelphia Eagles (3-7) is a tricky one for sports bettors AND for sharps (professional wagerers) because it’s hard to pin down intensity and motivation for both teams.
CAROLINA: The Panthers are way out of the playoff picture, and are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to a divisional rival. History has made it clear that a non-divisional road game after a home divisional heartbreaker is often a no-show performance.
PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles are in the midst of a 2012 debacle that will probably lead to a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and offense for next season. This team hasn’t played with much intensity for weeks, and is dealing with multiple injuries to key personnel.
Sharps did make a move early, betting Carolina at the opener of -1, and at the more widely common opener of -2.5. That’s what put the line at the Carolina -3 that you’re seeing across the board as of press time. We’re hearing from our sources that there were two key reasons for this:
*Cam Newton of Carolina is a much more dynamic quarterback than Nick Foles of Philadelphia, as well as being more experienced and less mistake-prone.
*Historical percentages around the key number of three in NFL sports betting suggest that you drive the line toward the three unless there’s compelling evidence not to do so. Nick Foles and Philadelphia looked so bad in Washington last week that there was no compelling reason to ask Philadelphia to win this game. If Carolina’s the more likely victory, then -2.5 offers value because so many games land on three.
Now that the number is sitting on three, what are the sharps doing? Frankly, most aren’t doing anything! They will fade any line move based on public action…but it’s far from certain that public money would move the line in a non-marquee matchup like this. Sharps who liked Philadelphia from the beginning and planned on betting them will take the +3 if that’s the best they see. There are some stores now showing Philly +3 -120 on the moneyline as a result of that development.
Sharps have largely left the total alone because weather isn’t going to be a factor. The current forecast is for temperatures near 40 (warm for a Philadelphia evening in late November) with little wind. Factors that normally create Under interest for sharps aren’t in play.
CAROLINA: The Panthers are way out of the playoff picture, and are coming off a heartbreaking home loss to a divisional rival. History has made it clear that a non-divisional road game after a home divisional heartbreaker is often a no-show performance.
PHILADELPHIA: The Eagles are in the midst of a 2012 debacle that will probably lead to a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and offense for next season. This team hasn’t played with much intensity for weeks, and is dealing with multiple injuries to key personnel.
Sharps did make a move early, betting Carolina at the opener of -1, and at the more widely common opener of -2.5. That’s what put the line at the Carolina -3 that you’re seeing across the board as of press time. We’re hearing from our sources that there were two key reasons for this:
*Cam Newton of Carolina is a much more dynamic quarterback than Nick Foles of Philadelphia, as well as being more experienced and less mistake-prone.
*Historical percentages around the key number of three in NFL sports betting suggest that you drive the line toward the three unless there’s compelling evidence not to do so. Nick Foles and Philadelphia looked so bad in Washington last week that there was no compelling reason to ask Philadelphia to win this game. If Carolina’s the more likely victory, then -2.5 offers value because so many games land on three.
Now that the number is sitting on three, what are the sharps doing? Frankly, most aren’t doing anything! They will fade any line move based on public action…but it’s far from certain that public money would move the line in a non-marquee matchup like this. Sharps who liked Philadelphia from the beginning and planned on betting them will take the +3 if that’s the best they see. There are some stores now showing Philly +3 -120 on the moneyline as a result of that development.
Sharps have largely left the total alone because weather isn’t going to be a factor. The current forecast is for temperatures near 40 (warm for a Philadelphia evening in late November) with little wind. Factors that normally create Under interest for sharps aren’t in play.
