Front Page NFL Picks (Week 12)

Willie Bee · 11-21-08, 11:00 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions Over 42

Game Time: 11/23/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Cajun Sports | cajun-sports.com

The Lions have allowed 32 ppg in their last three and the Buccaneers are allsoing 24 per game under a dome. Take the Over when Tampa Bay goes north to face Detroit.

The winless Detroit Lions play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon. The Lions are off a 31-22 loss at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday while the Buccaneers defeated the Minnesota Vikings 19-13 in Cigar City.

Lions QB Daunte Culpepper has two 300-yard passing games in his career versus the Buccaneers. Rookie RB Kevin Smith leads the Lions with 513 yards rushing and he has five rushing touchdowns on the season. WR Calvin Johnson has a TD in five of his last six games. He leads the club with 45 receptions for 839 yards (18.6 avg) and seven touchdowns on the year.

Buccaneers QB Jeff Garcia has completed 78 of 107 (72.9%) passes for 804 yards and seven touchdowns (3 INTs) for a QB rating of 104.3 in three starts versus the Lions. Bucs RB Earnest Graham rushed for 92 yards and had a career-best 13 receptions and 99 yards receiving in the last meeting with the Lions.

The Lions average 276.9 yards per game on offense which this number should increase and they should become more productive with Culpepper under center. The Lions defense allows 401.7 yards per game. We know that the Buccaneers are 21-2 Over when they gain 400 or more yards since 1992. The Bucs average 351.6 yards per game on offense while their defense allows 281.5 yards of total offense per game. Detroit is 41-21 Over when they allow 350 to 400 yards of total offense in a game since 1992.

The Bucs average scoring 20.0 points per game when playing in a Dome stadium and their defense allows 24.0 points per game. The Lions average 19.7 points per game and their defense allows 32.0 points per game over their last three contests.

The fact the Lions are winless this late in the season triggers a technical situation on home underdogs of 3 or more points, these dogs have gone Over the posted total in six of seven games the last ten seasons. We also know that home dome teams in game nine or later are 27-8-1 Over the last three seasons and if it’s a non-division contest that record improves to 16-4 Over.

NFL teams are 41-25-3 Over when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. NFL teams are 26-9 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. NFL teams are 43-18-3 Over when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. NFL teams are 22-8 Over on the road after a win at home as a favorite in which they were losing at the half.

NFL teams are 73-44-6 Over at home after playing as a dog. NFL teams are 12-2 Over as a 7+ dog the week after on the road as a TD+ dog in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. NFL teams are 60-38-4 Over as a dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up loss. NFL teams are 123-82-10 Over after a straight up loss. NFL teams are 31-16 Over when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.

With strong situational and technical support we will make the Over in this contest our Game of the Week Selection.

Free Pick: Buccaneers-Lions Over 42 (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-21-08, 11:01 AM

Dallas Cowboys -11 to blow out San Francisco 49ers

Game Time: 11/23/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Ben Burns | sportspic.com

Off a big win at Washington last week and with Tony Romo performing in front of the home fans in Dallas, look for the Cowboys to blow out the San Francisco 49ers.

Playing for the first time in three games because of a broken pinkie, Tony Romo led Dallas to a much-needed 14-10 victory last Sunday night over the Washington Redskins, the team that first shattered the perceived invincibility of the Cowboys four weeks into the season.

Romo completed 19 of 27 passes for 198 yards with a TD and will look to have an even better performance in front of the hometown crowd this Sunday. Although many have felt that the Cowboys are done for the year because of their recent slide, I'd caution against hitting the panic button too soon; at 6-4, Dallas is tied with Washington in the NFC East and Atlanta for a possible wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs. With a game against the grounded Seahawks next week, the Cowboys should be sitting with an 8-4 record heading into their next road game in Pittsburgh on December 7.

And while some may think this spread is too high, we can't overlook the fact that Dallas has actually performed extremely well in this situation; over the last three years the Cowboys are 4-2 ATS as a home favorite of 10½-14 points! Sure the 49'ers are coming off a victory last week, but it was at home against the Rams, currently the worst team in the league.

Obviously an "early" game Dallas is a whole different deal. In other words, this should be a blowout. Consider laying the points with Dallas.

Free Pick: Cowboys -11 (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-22-08, 10:09 AM

Houston Texans +3 the play at Cleveland Browns

Game Time: 11/23/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Dr. Bob | drbobsports.com

Neither team has shown much on the defensive side of the ball this season, and Houston's offense has the edge making the Texans the play Sunday in Cleveland.

These two teams are equally bad defensively, but Houston is likely to outgain the Browns in this game, as their attack averages 6.0 yards per play and rates at 0.9 yppl better than average after adjusting for strength of opposing defenses.

Cleveland, meanwhile, has averaged just 5.0 yppl and rate at 0.2 yppl worse than average. Cleveland’s offense has performed better in Brady Quinn’s two starts (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl), but that has more to do with the rushing number (actually one 72 yard run by backup RB Harrison) than it does with Quinn, who has actually been a bit worse than former starter Derek Anderson from a compensated yards per pass play perspective.

Quinn, however, has not thrown an interception in two starts and that will be a key in this game, as Houston’s Sage Rosenfels has thrown seven interceptions in 3½ games this season and has a career interception rate of 5.1%. Cleveland is likely to make up for the difference in total yards with a turnover advantage, but my math model favors the Browns by only 1 point even with a 1.3 projected turnover advantage.

Cleveland applies to a negative 36-99-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense (bad defensive teams are bad as favorites) and that angle applies as long as the Browns are favored by 3 points or more. Houston should cover the spread in this game if they have a -2 in turnover margin or better and that is likely to be the case.

Predicted Score: Houston-27 Cleveland-26

Free Pick: Texans +3 (-110)