Tampa Bay @ Detroit

[nick2060]

Not gonna call it a lock by any means, but Detroit at home has historically played Tampa Bay strong. I'm not playing the due factor since i don't really believe a team HAS to win, but look at these stats. Games in Detroit (with year since they dont play often so these go back):
TB 16 Det 23 (2007)
TB 23 Det 20 (2002)
TB 20 Det 17 (2001)
TB 31 Det 10 (2000)
TB 3 Det 20 (1999)

Fact is Detroit has a good shot at covering the spread, maybe even winning. At +290 theres some value there, especially against Tampa's stagnant offense, it should be a close game. The line movement is also interesting, Tampa is being picked about 54/46 but some books have the line down from -9 to -7.5, meanwhile other books still have it at -9, really not sure what to make of it yet, but it might be RLM with some books late to react, or maybe some books are just getting a lot more money then others

[keystonekid]

Screw the spread, take the OVER.

[nick2060]

I'm going to stick with the spread but hopefully we both win this weekend, good luck

[LT Profits]

Well, I agree that the Lions are the play, but the fact that the played the Bucs tough in 2002 or prior has nothing to do with it.

First of all, winless teams do very well at this time of the year, and even the Lions have fit this angle nicely, going 4-2 ATS since reaching 0-4 this season.

Secondly, the Bucs usually turn ultra-conservatibe when they get a lead and rely on their excellent defense. Thus, even when they seemingly dominate a game on the field, they rarely win by double-digits. This is not the type of team I would feel comforytable laying more than a touchdown with, ESPECIALLY on the road on an unfamiliar surface (turf).