Seachickens look like they'll win the West

SteveRyan · 11-12-12, 01:31 PM

The next two games will be a little tough.

After the week 11 bye, they go to Miami....who also will be coming off a bye.

Then, it's off to Chicago the following week.

I don't see them winning both games.

After Chicago, they face Arizona at home. Inner divisional games can be a little tough.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 01:34 PM

They have what it takes to win the next 2 on the road. Big, physical corners will match up well w/ Marshall and Bears running game just can't get anything going lately. Will be tough but after the Bears game 3 out of 4 at home and a road game in Buffalo. Think they run the table in those last 4 making it 8-0 at home on the year.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 01:55 PM

SF will go 3-4 or 4-3 in their last 7 games, with a slightly higher chance of 4 wins.

Seahawks will most likely go 3-3 in their last 6 games.

Would be SF @ 9-6-1 or 10-5-1 and Seahawks @ 9-7.

A lot of things would have to go the Seahawks way for them to win the div.

Bbfromgpt · 11-12-12, 01:57 PM

Seattle won't win 10 games much less the division

p19101 · 11-12-12, 02:02 PM

Originally posted by Bbfromgpt

Seattle won't win 10 games much less the division

There is no will and wont, it's all down to numbers. There is always a probability, just a matter of calculating it.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 02:04 PM

I would like to know where Sea's 3 losses are at? Bears could be 1 (and that's just could be) but Bears are overrated after beating a bunch of cupcakes. This game is also sandwiched between Bears playing Houston, Minny, and San Fran before, and then Minny and GB after.

Will they lose to Zona at home.... no. San Fran at home.... no. Buffalo.... no. St. Louis at home.... no. Ryan Tannenhill.... no. No chance they go 3-3 down the stretch and feel free to troll this thread 6 weeks from now if i'm wrong.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 02:05 PM

A week 11 bye also gets them prepared for the back half. We'll see

Bbfromgpt · 11-12-12, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

I would like to know where Sea's 3 losses are at? Bears could be 1 (and that's just could be) but Bears are overrated after beating a bunch of cupcakes. This game is also sandwiched between Bears playing Houston, Minny, and San Fran before, and then Minny and GB after.

Will they lose to Zona at home.... no. San Fran at home.... no. Buffalo.... no. St. Louis at home.... no. Ryan Tannenhill.... no. No chance they go 3-3 down the stretch and feel free to troll this thread 6 weeks from now if i'm wrong.

They could lose any of those games. They're an avg team on the road and a good team at home. 9-7 at best

Bbfromgpt · 11-12-12, 02:10 PM

Jmo

Bbfromgpt · 11-12-12, 02:13 PM

They lost at zona, Stl, SF, and det. You telling me they can't lose to Miami, Chi, and or Buff on the road. Come on. They'll lose to sf too

p19101 · 11-12-12, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

I would like to know where Sea's 3 losses are at? Bears could be 1 (and that's just could be) but Bears are overrated after beating a bunch of cupcakes. This game is also sandwiched between Bears playing Houston, Minny, and San Fran before, and then Minny and GB after.

Will they lose to Zona at home.... no. San Fran at home.... no. Buffalo.... no. St. Louis at home.... no. Ryan Tannenhill.... no. No chance they go 3-3 down the stretch and feel free to troll this thread 6 weeks from now if i'm wrong.

You're doing it wrong if you're looking at each game as a loss or win.

Try to set a % chance of loss/win on each game and you'll be on the right way to getting the number of wins.

Lets say Seahawks has these % to win their games:

@Dolphins 55%
@Bears 39%
Cardz 58%
@Bills 56%
49ers 48% (48% prob too high, 45% probably more like it)
Rams 56%

That would put em at 3.12 wins, I don't think those numbers are too far off even if they are just guesstimated.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 02:34 PM

Who's to say your percentages are correct? Sea losing divisional games on the road by 1 score or less does not make them a bad road team. You really think they only have a 58% chance of beating the Cards at home?

Youkeepthislove · 11-12-12, 02:39 PM

The Seahawks will NOT lose at home. 8-0.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

Who's to say your percentages are correct? Sea losing divisional games on the road by 1 score or less does not make them a bad road team. You really think they only have a 58% chance of beating the Cards at home?

I did not claim my numbers to be correct, but they are not off by much. Even if they were all off with 5% all in Hawks favor they'd still not be getting 3.5 or more wins. You're probably right about the Cardz game, 62% maybe.

Lets say they have 3.25 wins then. What is the likelihood of them getting 4 wins? They will need 4 wins and SF to get 4 losses. What odds is enough to take that bet?

Frisco · 11-12-12, 02:46 PM

Well i think it's very likely that they get 4 or 5 wins. San Fran may be one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 02:47 PM

Ladbrokes has +400 on Hawks winning div, might be higher available elsewhere...

p19101 · 11-12-12, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

Well i think it's very likely that they get 4 or 5 wins. San Fran may be one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.

Why not post your win % for each game then?

p19101 · 11-12-12, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

Well i think it's very likely that they get 4 or 5 wins. San Fran may be one of the most overrated teams in the league right now.

I agree on 49ers being over rated. But you are over rating Hawks also.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by p19101

Ladbrokes has +400 on Hawks winning div, might be higher available elsewhere...

I'm already on it @ +850. Not knocking your pcts just disagreeing. I'd say

@Dolphins 67%
@Bears 44% ( big thing will be turnovers, Russ takes care of the ball i see them winning)
Cardz 70%
@Bills 60%
49ers 59% (48% prob too high, 45% probably more like it)
Rams 57%

OTL · 11-12-12, 02:55 PM

My Seahawks futures are looking better every week.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by OTL

My Seahawks futures are looking better every week.

gl bud.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

I'm already on it @ +850. Not knocking your pcts just disagreeing. I'd say

@Dolphins 67%
@Bears 44% ( big thing will be turnovers, Russ takes care of the ball i see them winning)
Cardz 70%
@Bills 60%
49ers 59% (48% prob too high, 45% probably more like it)
Rams 57%

I think the truth might be somewhere between our numbers perhaps. But with your numbers it's still only 3.57 wins.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by p19101

I think the truth might be somewhere between our numbers perhaps. But with your numbers it's still only 3.57 wins.

Perhaps, but you know some teams play above their expected win total.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 03:03 PM

I have Hawks futures as well, just not on winning the div but the SB @ +9400

So I wish them the best

Frisco · 11-12-12, 03:06 PM

Right on. I took them to win the NFC, then got a potential SB matchup of NE vs Sea.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 03:09 PM

Never found any AFC SB future I liked so I only have Giants and Seahawks. Sold most of my Giants futures when they hit 6-2 though because it could only go down from there on out. I have this feeling Giants might even miss the play offs if they can't take this bye week and stop the bleeding.

Frisco · 11-12-12, 03:13 PM

I was all about the Giants missing the playoffs before the season started but can't trust Dallas to come thru now. that loss in big d will haunt them.

p19101 · 11-12-12, 03:18 PM

Check their schedules.

NYG have:

GB
@WAS
NO
@ATL
@BAL
PHI

Cowboys have 5 home games:

CLE
WAS
PHI
@CIN
PIT
NO
@WAS

I think there is great value in Dallas to win the div right now, just shopping for the best number.

Frisco · 12-16-12, 06:24 PM

Can't wait for next weeks game. Niners lose tonight to set the stage. C Link is going to be insane

Speedy88 · 12-16-12, 06:27 PM

I really hope the niners lose tonight, it would set up for an epic game in Seattle on SNF.

People have been riding the Niners jock all year long, yet Seattle continues to fly under the radar. 49ers hurt themselves once they made the switch to Kap. If they lose tonight and next week, Harbough is going to look bad.

And in my opinion, Seattle and SF are pretty even. On a neutral field, I think SF shouldn't be favored by more than a point or two.

Frisco · 12-16-12, 06:32 PM

Originally posted by Speedy88

I really hope the niners lose tonight, it would set up for an epic game in Seattle on SNF.

People have been riding the Niners jock all year long, yet Seattle continues to fly under the radar. 49ers hurt themselves once they made the switch to Kap. If they lose tonight and next week, Harbough is going to look bad.

And in my opinion, Seattle and SF are pretty even. On a neutral field, I think SF shouldn't be favored by more than a point or two.

Couldn't agree more. Think Smith gives them the best chance to win in the postseason. Really don't think anyone should be favored over Seattle at home so the opening line will be interesting to say the least. This is all dependent on what the Niners do tonight tho. IMO this match up will be the best regular season game of the year

Speedy88 · 12-16-12, 06:37 PM

Originally posted by Frisco

Couldn't agree more. Think Smith gives them the best chance to win in the postseason. Really don't think anyone should be favored over Seattle at home so the opening line will be interesting to say the least. This is all dependent on what the Niners do tonight tho. IMO this match up will be the best regular season game of the year

Harbough really had no reason to make the switch to Kap. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

The Niners are a great football team, but being from Seattle it pisses me off how people talk about the Niners as a superbowl contender, whereas earlier this week some people thought the Seahawks may not even make the playoffs. The two teams are identical. I'd give the Niners the edge on defense, but I'd take Seattle's offense over the Niners offense anyday.

And oh yeah, i'll be making a thread at some point this week that Russell Wilson deserves to be in the ROY race. The numbers don't lie.

Frisco · 12-16-12, 06:41 PM

Yea I have seen quite a few playoff brackets from 'experts' where Seahawks were left out and teams like the Bears were in. Made no sense when you look at the Bears schedule and fact Hawks own tiebreaker.

I have been torn on the ROY race. Love Wilson being that I went to NC State (hate Tom O'Brien for not bringing him back). Think RG3 has better #'s on a probably less talented team so unless he sits out the next 2 games it will probably be his.

JohnnyBrooklyn · 12-16-12, 06:46 PM

49ers over Pats by14 tonight!!! NOT SO FAST SEANUGGETS!!