Week 11 NFL Betting Review
Week 11 NFL Betting Review
The NFL's 11th week opened and closed with high-scoring affairs as the Jets topped the Patriots 34-31 last Thursday and the Browns capped the week with a 29-27 win in Buffalo on Monday. In between those two games, however, scoreboard operators caught some downtime as the Under profited at a 10-5-1 clip, including a 13-13 tie between the Eagles and Bengals that saw Donovan McNabb toss three INTs.
Can’t anyone get the ball into the end zone anymore?
The Under went 10-5-1 during Week 11 of the NFL season, as a combination of offensive ineptitude, brick-wall defending and inclement weather brought scoring to a standstill. The sorriest display was at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, where the Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles (-9½) played to a 13-13 tie. It was the first tie in the NFL in six years. The Eagles sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick eight times, but Donovan McNabb threw three picks to one of the worst defenses in the league and lost a fumble.
While the Eagles dropped to 6-4 against the betting odds, they’re more concerned about being in last place in the NFC East at 5-4-1. This despite having a point differential of +71 on the season, compared to +1 for the Dallas Cowboys and -1 for the Washington Redskins. Those two teams are even at 6-4 following Dallas’ 14-10 victory over the ‘Skins (+1) at FedExField. Marion Barber rushed for 114 yards and a major on 24 carries; that’s 4.8 yards per attempt, which is all Washington’s Jason Campbell could muster through the air against the Cowboys defense.
Not to be underdone, the Pittsburgh Steelers improved to 7-3 on Sunday without scoring a single (official) touchdown. Three Jeff Reed field goals and a safety were all they needed against the San Diego Chargers in an 11-10 final. This was the first time in NFL history a game finished with that score. But handicappers will remember the botched call on the final play of the game, when Troy Polamalu picked up an attempted Chargers lateral and took it to the house. The lateral was ruled an illegal forward pass, and the Steelers dropped the cash as 4½-point favorites. Pittsburgh is 4-6 ATS; San Diego is 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS.
The Chargers feel Philly’s pain. San Diego is the only team in the woeful AFC West with a positive point differential at +25, but the Denver Broncos and their -23 differential took a step closer to a division title with yet another come-from-behind win, 24-20 over the Atlanta Falcons (-6½). That’s two upsets in a row for Denver, both on the road, to improve to 6-4 SU and 3-6-1 ATS.
At least the AFC West has a winning team. Things got a lot more complicated in the NFC North with Green Bay’s 37-3 triumph over Chicago (+3½). That’s five paydays in a row for the Packers, who join the Bears and the Minnesota Vikings atop the division at 5-5. Minnesota fell to .500 with a 19-13 loss at Tampa Bay (-4½); the Vikings are 3-7 ATS on the season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Buccaneers are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the hypercompetitive NFC South.
All the games we just mentioned went under the posted total. The Week 11 slate was bookended by a pair of overs. On Thursday night, the New York Jets and New England Patriots combined for 886 yards of offense; the Jets survived 34-31 in overtime as 3-point road dogs. It was Cleveland’s turn to howl on Monday night, as Phil Dawson booted a late field goal from 56 yards out in a 29-27 final over the Buffalo Bills. The Browns are 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS; their last three games have gone over, with Brady Quinn yet to throw an interception – although Dawson was the offensive star Sunday with five figgies.
Buffalo has tumbled down the cliff at 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. Trent Edwards heaved three picks against the Browns, one on a tipped pass attempt. Nine of Edwards’ 11 interceptions on the season have come in the last four games as the Bills take up residence in the AFC East basement.
Last, but definitely not least, the Tennessee Titans kept their undefeated season alive at 10-0 SU and a mouthwatering 9-1 ATS. The Titans took a 14-3 deficit into the dressing room at Jacksonville and left with a 24-14 victory as 1-point road favorites. The away team was 11-5 in Week 11; away faves like Tennessee were 4-1, jacking up the most profitable betting play on the season to 29-17 ATS. That’s over 63 percent; the home dogs traditionally have their day later in the campaign. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.
The NFL's 11th week opened and closed with high-scoring affairs as the Jets topped the Patriots 34-31 last Thursday and the Browns capped the week with a 29-27 win in Buffalo on Monday. In between those two games, however, scoreboard operators caught some downtime as the Under profited at a 10-5-1 clip, including a 13-13 tie between the Eagles and Bengals that saw Donovan McNabb toss three INTs.
Can’t anyone get the ball into the end zone anymore?
The Under went 10-5-1 during Week 11 of the NFL season, as a combination of offensive ineptitude, brick-wall defending and inclement weather brought scoring to a standstill. The sorriest display was at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati, where the Bengals and the Philadelphia Eagles (-9½) played to a 13-13 tie. It was the first tie in the NFL in six years. The Eagles sacked Ryan Fitzpatrick eight times, but Donovan McNabb threw three picks to one of the worst defenses in the league and lost a fumble.
While the Eagles dropped to 6-4 against the betting odds, they’re more concerned about being in last place in the NFC East at 5-4-1. This despite having a point differential of +71 on the season, compared to +1 for the Dallas Cowboys and -1 for the Washington Redskins. Those two teams are even at 6-4 following Dallas’ 14-10 victory over the ‘Skins (+1) at FedExField. Marion Barber rushed for 114 yards and a major on 24 carries; that’s 4.8 yards per attempt, which is all Washington’s Jason Campbell could muster through the air against the Cowboys defense.
Not to be underdone, the Pittsburgh Steelers improved to 7-3 on Sunday without scoring a single (official) touchdown. Three Jeff Reed field goals and a safety were all they needed against the San Diego Chargers in an 11-10 final. This was the first time in NFL history a game finished with that score. But handicappers will remember the botched call on the final play of the game, when Troy Polamalu picked up an attempted Chargers lateral and took it to the house. The lateral was ruled an illegal forward pass, and the Steelers dropped the cash as 4½-point favorites. Pittsburgh is 4-6 ATS; San Diego is 4-6 SU and 4-5-1 ATS.
The Chargers feel Philly’s pain. San Diego is the only team in the woeful AFC West with a positive point differential at +25, but the Denver Broncos and their -23 differential took a step closer to a division title with yet another come-from-behind win, 24-20 over the Atlanta Falcons (-6½). That’s two upsets in a row for Denver, both on the road, to improve to 6-4 SU and 3-6-1 ATS.
At least the AFC West has a winning team. Things got a lot more complicated in the NFC North with Green Bay’s 37-3 triumph over Chicago (+3½). That’s five paydays in a row for the Packers, who join the Bears and the Minnesota Vikings atop the division at 5-5. Minnesota fell to .500 with a 19-13 loss at Tampa Bay (-4½); the Vikings are 3-7 ATS on the season and 1-4 ATS in their last five games. The Buccaneers are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the hypercompetitive NFC South.
All the games we just mentioned went under the posted total. The Week 11 slate was bookended by a pair of overs. On Thursday night, the New York Jets and New England Patriots combined for 886 yards of offense; the Jets survived 34-31 in overtime as 3-point road dogs. It was Cleveland’s turn to howl on Monday night, as Phil Dawson booted a late field goal from 56 yards out in a 29-27 final over the Buffalo Bills. The Browns are 4-6 SU and 6-4 ATS; their last three games have gone over, with Brady Quinn yet to throw an interception – although Dawson was the offensive star Sunday with five figgies.
Buffalo has tumbled down the cliff at 0-4 SU and ATS in its last four games. Trent Edwards heaved three picks against the Browns, one on a tipped pass attempt. Nine of Edwards’ 11 interceptions on the season have come in the last four games as the Bills take up residence in the AFC East basement.
Last, but definitely not least, the Tennessee Titans kept their undefeated season alive at 10-0 SU and a mouthwatering 9-1 ATS. The Titans took a 14-3 deficit into the dressing room at Jacksonville and left with a 24-14 victory as 1-point road favorites. The away team was 11-5 in Week 11; away faves like Tennessee were 4-1, jacking up the most profitable betting play on the season to 29-17 ATS. That’s over 63 percent; the home dogs traditionally have their day later in the campaign. Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.