- YTD: 8 - 4 - 1 (+5.4u) - Started late this year
- Week 8 : 4-1
- All spreads from 5dimes
Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5) @ San Deigo Chargers - Thursday
The Chargers one defensive strength (2nd in Opp. Rushing) counters the Chiefs one offensive weapon (3rd in Rushing). In their week 4 match-up (37-20 win for Chargers), the San Deigo held Kansas City to only 102 yards of rushing with two fumbles... and that was AT Arrowhead Stadium. So with the Charger's public stock at an all-era low, after a miserable 7-6 lost to the apathetic Browns, the value seems to either be with San Deigo or not at all. Close your eyes and picture Norv Turner. Then picture Phillip Rivers. Are you feeling confident enough to gift 9.5 points? I am not.
Play: PASS (slight Lean to Chargers, depending on how much line will shift against the Chiefs)
Monday Edit: It's down to -9... still not enough to move in.
Arizona Cardinals (+11.5) @ Greenbay Packers
Will wait until MNF to weight in...
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ Indiapolis Colts
Hm... the Dolphins are this years good bad team, who I expect will get some attention after their dismantling of the Jets, who hey! almost beat the Pats last week docha remember? On the other hand, the Colts, while inconsistent, have been picking up big wins at home (Browns, GB). I think back-to-back road games and the public's attention hurts Miami. If I can get a good value at +3 Colts (big If), I'm probably going to move in.
Play: Leaning Colts
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns
I don't really get how this line happened. So the Ravens beat the Browns in a close game (23-16) in week 4, have a few semi-big injuries, get blown out by the Texans and all of a sudden, they're only a 3 point favorite vs the Browns in Cleveland? After a Ravens BYE week? So taking into account 3 points for playing at home, Vegas thinks these two teams are about equal on a neutral field. My left eye is twitching. I don't see it. I'm going to play this, and I have a feeling so will a lot of other people, so I'll go ahead and lock this puppy in before the line jumps:
Play: Ravens (-3) 115 x2u
Monday Edit: The line is already at Ravens -3.5, which I would still lean Ravens slightly.
Buffalo Bills (+11.5) @ Houston Texans
Vegas is 5-4 (against-the-spread) in terms of underogs covering a double digit spread this season. There is no way I'm going to lay 11.5 points with any team that isn't the bloodthirsty Patriots, so the only question remains do I think the Bills are capable of keeping it within 12 against the over-valued Texans? The answer is: who the hell knows?
Play: Pass
Carolina Panthers (+4) @ Washington Redskins
The 1-6 Panthers have just come off of four tough losses (against good teams) by an average of 3 points. While the 3-5 Redskins are teetering on the edge of their division. I'm not sure which way the public will lean on this one, though I'm hoping it's with Carolina. I think Cam Netwon will have to rely on his arm against the number 1 opp. rushing team in the league. I think the Redskins will make a statement here, at home, to save their season (that, or the RG3 for president campaign is about to get a lot funnier).
Play: Redskins (-4) 110 x2u
Detriot Lions (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
You cannot pay me enough to stay away from this disaster.
Play: Pass.
Chicago Bears (-4) @ Tennessee Titans
The bears went from under-hyped to over-hyped to just about right hyped in the past few weeks. I still want to bet against Smokin' J. Culter, but not this week. Titans are too skizoid to have value in this situation.
Play: Pass
Minnesota Vikings (+5) @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are a good young team with a solid defense, who I think are flying a little under the radar. The Vikings are a flashy offensive team with a gaping hole in the QB position. Christian Ponder is playing like a bottom-tier QB at the moment and is begging to be faded. I like the Seahawks at home to win this game handedly, but I'll let the line settle to see if I can pick up some value.
Play: Leaning Seahawks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ New York Giants
I believe the Steelers have gotten their shit together of late. I believe the Giants should be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. It's a battle of two really good defensive teams, with a correct line. Don't see the value either way. I expect the Giants to be the public favorite and the line to shift in the Steelers favor, in which case there might be a small play.
Play: Pass (with slight Lean towards Steelers pending line)
Monday Edit: Line is currently at +3.5 Steelers... I'm still staying away for the moment.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Another pecuilar line that's begging for the public to pound the Bucs. I get it, Tampa is 31st in the league in Opp. Passing and Carson Palmer is slightly better than average. I've watched the Buc's play and Josh Freeman is not only averagering a QB rating of over 110 in his last 3 games, but he's looked damn good doing it. I think Tampa Bay is a team on the rise (with an extended rest period), and I don't think Vegas has given them enough respect.
Play: Buccaneers(+2.5) 110 x2u
Monday Edit: The line has shifted to +1.5 Bucs, which I would still take. I think the Bucs win outright by more than 3.
Dallas Cowboys (+5) @ Atlanta Falcons - Sunday Night Game
Coming off a classic Cowboy's lost to the Giants, Vegas and I are both confused about Dallas' potential. The +5 line is Vegas is saying: "look, I don't know what's going to happen this game." I've watched Matt Ryan play for these past 7 weeks, and he is unreal. With the additional of quick screen passes and shovel passes to his repetoir (something the ex-offensive coach frowned upon) Ryan looks in position to rise as the true MVP of the league. He is accurate beyond 20 yards, makes good decisions in the pocket, and has recently developed a nice touch pass ~10 yards. On top of that, I think this years Falcons are fully aware of their 7-0 record, and playing to defend it. And I know for a fact that they take home games that much more seriously from their comfortable dome.
Play: Leaning Falcons (Homer Lean)
Philly Eagles (+?) vs New Orleans Saints - Monday Night Game
What is going on with these teams? Most likely a pass, but will decide after Vegas releases line.
That's it. Best of luck!
- Week 8 : 4-1
- All spreads from 5dimes
Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5) @ San Deigo Chargers - Thursday
The Chargers one defensive strength (2nd in Opp. Rushing) counters the Chiefs one offensive weapon (3rd in Rushing). In their week 4 match-up (37-20 win for Chargers), the San Deigo held Kansas City to only 102 yards of rushing with two fumbles... and that was AT Arrowhead Stadium. So with the Charger's public stock at an all-era low, after a miserable 7-6 lost to the apathetic Browns, the value seems to either be with San Deigo or not at all. Close your eyes and picture Norv Turner. Then picture Phillip Rivers. Are you feeling confident enough to gift 9.5 points? I am not.
Play: PASS (slight Lean to Chargers, depending on how much line will shift against the Chiefs)
Monday Edit: It's down to -9... still not enough to move in.
Arizona Cardinals (+11.5) @ Greenbay Packers
Will wait until MNF to weight in...
Miami Dolphins (-2.5) @ Indiapolis Colts
Hm... the Dolphins are this years good bad team, who I expect will get some attention after their dismantling of the Jets, who hey! almost beat the Pats last week docha remember? On the other hand, the Colts, while inconsistent, have been picking up big wins at home (Browns, GB). I think back-to-back road games and the public's attention hurts Miami. If I can get a good value at +3 Colts (big If), I'm probably going to move in.
Play: Leaning Colts
Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Cleveland Browns
I don't really get how this line happened. So the Ravens beat the Browns in a close game (23-16) in week 4, have a few semi-big injuries, get blown out by the Texans and all of a sudden, they're only a 3 point favorite vs the Browns in Cleveland? After a Ravens BYE week? So taking into account 3 points for playing at home, Vegas thinks these two teams are about equal on a neutral field. My left eye is twitching. I don't see it. I'm going to play this, and I have a feeling so will a lot of other people, so I'll go ahead and lock this puppy in before the line jumps:
Play: Ravens (-3) 115 x2u
Monday Edit: The line is already at Ravens -3.5, which I would still lean Ravens slightly.
Buffalo Bills (+11.5) @ Houston Texans
Vegas is 5-4 (against-the-spread) in terms of underogs covering a double digit spread this season. There is no way I'm going to lay 11.5 points with any team that isn't the bloodthirsty Patriots, so the only question remains do I think the Bills are capable of keeping it within 12 against the over-valued Texans? The answer is: who the hell knows?
Play: Pass
Carolina Panthers (+4) @ Washington Redskins
The 1-6 Panthers have just come off of four tough losses (against good teams) by an average of 3 points. While the 3-5 Redskins are teetering on the edge of their division. I'm not sure which way the public will lean on this one, though I'm hoping it's with Carolina. I think Cam Netwon will have to rely on his arm against the number 1 opp. rushing team in the league. I think the Redskins will make a statement here, at home, to save their season (that, or the RG3 for president campaign is about to get a lot funnier).
Play: Redskins (-4) 110 x2u
Detriot Lions (-4) @ Jacksonville Jaguars
You cannot pay me enough to stay away from this disaster.
Play: Pass.
Chicago Bears (-4) @ Tennessee Titans
The bears went from under-hyped to over-hyped to just about right hyped in the past few weeks. I still want to bet against Smokin' J. Culter, but not this week. Titans are too skizoid to have value in this situation.
Play: Pass
Minnesota Vikings (+5) @ Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks are a good young team with a solid defense, who I think are flying a little under the radar. The Vikings are a flashy offensive team with a gaping hole in the QB position. Christian Ponder is playing like a bottom-tier QB at the moment and is begging to be faded. I like the Seahawks at home to win this game handedly, but I'll let the line settle to see if I can pick up some value.
Play: Leaning Seahawks.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+3) @ New York Giants
I believe the Steelers have gotten their shit together of late. I believe the Giants should be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl. It's a battle of two really good defensive teams, with a correct line. Don't see the value either way. I expect the Giants to be the public favorite and the line to shift in the Steelers favor, in which case there might be a small play.
Play: Pass (with slight Lean towards Steelers pending line)
Monday Edit: Line is currently at +3.5 Steelers... I'm still staying away for the moment.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) @ Oakland Raiders
Another pecuilar line that's begging for the public to pound the Bucs. I get it, Tampa is 31st in the league in Opp. Passing and Carson Palmer is slightly better than average. I've watched the Buc's play and Josh Freeman is not only averagering a QB rating of over 110 in his last 3 games, but he's looked damn good doing it. I think Tampa Bay is a team on the rise (with an extended rest period), and I don't think Vegas has given them enough respect.
Play: Buccaneers(+2.5) 110 x2u
Monday Edit: The line has shifted to +1.5 Bucs, which I would still take. I think the Bucs win outright by more than 3.
Dallas Cowboys (+5) @ Atlanta Falcons - Sunday Night Game
Coming off a classic Cowboy's lost to the Giants, Vegas and I are both confused about Dallas' potential. The +5 line is Vegas is saying: "look, I don't know what's going to happen this game." I've watched Matt Ryan play for these past 7 weeks, and he is unreal. With the additional of quick screen passes and shovel passes to his repetoir (something the ex-offensive coach frowned upon) Ryan looks in position to rise as the true MVP of the league. He is accurate beyond 20 yards, makes good decisions in the pocket, and has recently developed a nice touch pass ~10 yards. On top of that, I think this years Falcons are fully aware of their 7-0 record, and playing to defend it. And I know for a fact that they take home games that much more seriously from their comfortable dome.
Play: Leaning Falcons (Homer Lean)
Philly Eagles (+?) vs New Orleans Saints - Monday Night Game
What is going on with these teams? Most likely a pass, but will decide after Vegas releases line.
That's it. Best of luck!