Front Page NFL Picks (Week 11, Nov 13-16)

Willie Bee · 11-14-08, 10:58 AM

Defense rules: Minnesota Vikings, Tampa Bay Bucs Under 38½

Game Time: 11/16/2008 01:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

The Buccaneers are only allowing 10 points per game at home, and the Vikings will still try and run often, thereby shortening the game. Under is the play at Tampa Bay.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the best defenses in all of football, and they have been downright impenetrable at home. The Minnesota will still try and run the ball with Adrian Peterson though, which will result in some time consuming drive that are conducive to an Under.

In reality, the Vikings have no choice but to run the ball often, because if they cannot run, it would make immobile quarterback Gus Frerotte a sitting duck for the lethal Tampa Bay pass rush.

Sure, the Buccaneers are allowing a miniscule 10.8 points and 69.0 rushing yards per game at home, but by the same token, Peterson will be the best running back they will have faced this season. While we do not expect AP to have a huge day against the devastating Tampa Bay unit, we do expect him to churn out some first downs just on his brilliant ability alone.

However, we do expect the Bucs to stiffen in the red zone and force the Vikings to settle for field goals. As a result, we do feel that Tampa Bay will have a lead of more than a touchdown at some point, and that is when Coach Jon Gruden usually turns ultra-conservative, turning the game over to his great defense.

We do not expect anything different here, so look for a relatively low scoring affair.

Free Pick: Vikings, Buccaneers Under 38½ (-110)

Willie Bee · 11-14-08, 10:59 AM

New Orleans Saints and Kansas City Chiefs Over 50½

Game Time: 11/16/2008 01:00 PM -
By: Cajun Sports | cajun-sports.com

Led by Drew Brees, New Orleans boasts the NFL's top offense going up against a porous Kansas City defense. Play the Over when the Saints meet the Chiefs Sunday.

The boys from the Big Easy take their air show on the road to face the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon. Before the season began many had this Saints team contending for the NFC South title but their inability to win on the road and inconsistent play has them looking up from the bottom of the division.

The Saints lost at Atlanta 34-20 last Sunday to fall to 0-4 on the road this season. They defeated San Diego 37-32 in London on Oct. 26, although they were considered the home team.

Drew Brees leads the NFL's top-ranked offense, which is gaining 422.2 yards per game. He's on pace to throw for a record-setting 5,309 yards. Brees has thrown for 1,290 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions in four road games compared to 1,695 yards, 13 TDs and four picks in five home contests. Brees and the Saints will face off against a Chiefs defense that has been decimated by injuries, as linebackers Derrick Johnson and Pat Thomas and defensive end Brian Johnston are listed as out for this game.

The Chiefs are allowing 420 yards per game on the defensive side of the ball. Their rush defense is giving up 202 yards per game on 6 yards per carry while their pass defense is allowing 218 yards passing per game and 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Not good news when facing a Saints offense that leads the league with over 420 yards of offense per game.

Kansas City is coming off another tough loss, 20-19 at San Diego last Sunday that came a week after a 30-27 overtime loss to Tampa Bay.

While the Chiefs have lost five straight since a 33-19 victory over Denver on Sept. 28 and have one victory in their last 18 games, the offense has been solid thanks to Tyler Thigpen's surprising play. Thigpen threw for 128 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions in his first start, but has passed for 710 yards, six TDs and no picks in his last three.

Chiefs RB Larry Johnson returned Monday after being suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy. His return should help improve the Chiefs offensive play, in their lone win he rushed for 198 yards and two touchdowns.

The Saints are 29-7-1 Over on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. New Orleans is 15-2 Over as a road favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Saints are 15-3 Over as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Saints are 10-0 Over when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 on the road and the line was within 3 of pick'em. New Orleans is 13-3 Over as a road favorite and 13-4 Over on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.

The Chiefs are 16-4 Over as a dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. KC is 12-2 Over as a dog when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Chiefs are 13-2 Over as a home dog versus any team with more wins after playing on the road.

NFL teams are 71-33-4 Over when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Over is 48-17-2 for the favorites when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. NFL teams are 47-25-2 Over the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing and 23-9-1 Over at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog. NFL teams are 20-7 Over as a home dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a dog.

With strong technical and fundamental support we will make the Over in the Saints / Chiefs matchup our play.

Free Pick: Saints-Chiefs Over 50½ (-107)