# Packers -2.5 (+145) at Vikings: $500 to win $720
The Packers and Vikings both look to get back above .500 when they square off at the Metrodome in an NFC North clash. Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16 in overtime but got the cash as a 3½-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (22 of 41, 314 yards, 1 TD) let a good day get away from him by committing both of the Packers turnovers, on an INT in the end zone and a lost fumble on back-to-back third-quarter possessions. Green Bay didn’t force any turnovers. Minnesota beat Houston 28-21 as a 6½-point home chalk, ending a two-game ATS hiccup. QB Gus Frerrotte (11 of 18, 182 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) made the most of a limited number of throws, RB Adrian Peterson (25 carries, 139 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, and the Vikings won the turnover battle, 3-1. Green Bay opened the season with a 24-19 victory over Minnesota as a two-point home favorite, improving to
3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between these longtime rivals. In addition, the Pack are on a 4-1 ATS run at the Metrodome, the underdog is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 clashes and the visitor has cashed in 10 of the last 13 battles.
# Saints -2.5 (+125) at Falcons: $300 to win $375
New Orleans is working on a 4-0 run against Atlanta, and if you're wondering why, it's Drew Brees. In the four games against the Falcons, Brees hit on 91 of 133 for 1,087 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. That should not surprise you since the Breezy one currently leads the NFL with 2,563 air yards, and the offense tops the charts with 403 total yards per game.
# Dolphins -9.0 (-110) vs Seahawks: $150 to win $136
The Dolphins go after their third straight win when they welcome the slumping Seahawks to South Beach.
Miami upended Denver 26-17 as a four-point road pup for its second straight win and cover. The Dolphins allowed just 14 rushing yards and picked off Broncos QB Jay Cutler three times, returning one for a first-quarter TD, and Miami racked up a 13-minute advantage in time of possession. QB Chad Pennington was solid, going 23 of 40 for 281 yards with no TDs and one INT.
Seattle is coming off a 26-7 loss to Philadelphia as a seven-point home underdog, falling for the fourth time in five games. Behind backup QB Seneca Wallace (13 of 29, 169 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), who is still subbing for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks managed just 233 total yards, while allowing 410, and Seattle lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly a full quarter.
Miami is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 24-17 in 2004 but cashing as a 9½-point road
dog. The visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
# Lions ML (+230) vs Jaguars: $700 to win $1610
Jacksonville is now 1-5 S/U and 0-6 ATS as favorites and they're laying almost a TD on the road here. They've been below average on offense but surprisingly they've been below average vs both the pass & run (combined allowing 5.9 yards/play vs opponents who typically average 5.3). Not good and that includes big plays. But who wants to put their hard earned money on a winless team right? Vegas counts on this and these winless "anti-public" teams are very profitable catching significant points. The question is whether or not we can trust the Lions. What I see is a team that hasn't quit. They've played Minnesota, Houston, Washington, and Chicago tough this past month and had a chance to win all 4. I'll back them in front of the home crowd to further increase our chances of a highly motivated effort. Culpepper is the wildcard but he has Johnson to throw to deep and an improving running game. Culpepper has been throwing strong in practice. But this play is about the team and I expect them to rally around their new veteran QB. Very close to making this a POD but I can't in Culpepper's 1st game back.
# Texans -2.5 (+105) vs Ravens: $1000 to win $1050 (POD)
The Texans opened as a small favorite but are now a small underdog. While I understand that's got a lot to do with Schaub being out, I believe that move is a mistake. Rosenfels
is fully capable. Other than his couple of memorable fumbles, Rosenfels was great in his last start against Indianapolis. Houston receiver Kevin Walter had this to say of Rosenfels:
"He played a great game against Indy, except the last three minutes we didn't execute and we turned the ball over. He played a great game and we know he's capable of playing great games. We're going to rally around him." It should also be noted that Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter last season. Additionally, note that Rosenfels was 21-for-29 with a pair of touchdowns in relief last week. While the Texans are playing in the comforts of their own stadium, the Ravens are in the middle of a very difficult scheduling spot. This is their second straight road game and fourth in the past five games. Additionally, they've got a date with the defending Super Bowl Champs on deck.
The Texans are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times they were listed as a home underdog of three points or less. They're also 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 38.5 to 42 range. During the same stretch, the Ravens were 0-6 ATS when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Look for the Texans to "rally around Rosenfels" and come away with the victory.
Other Early Leans:
Bills ML (+160) at Patriots
Rams +9.0 (-110) at Jets
The Packers and Vikings both look to get back above .500 when they square off at the Metrodome in an NFC North clash. Green Bay lost to Tennessee 19-16 in overtime but got the cash as a 3½-point road pup. QB Aaron Rodgers (22 of 41, 314 yards, 1 TD) let a good day get away from him by committing both of the Packers turnovers, on an INT in the end zone and a lost fumble on back-to-back third-quarter possessions. Green Bay didn’t force any turnovers. Minnesota beat Houston 28-21 as a 6½-point home chalk, ending a two-game ATS hiccup. QB Gus Frerrotte (11 of 18, 182 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) made the most of a limited number of throws, RB Adrian Peterson (25 carries, 139 yards, 1 TD) had a big day, and the Vikings won the turnover battle, 3-1. Green Bay opened the season with a 24-19 victory over Minnesota as a two-point home favorite, improving to
3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings between these longtime rivals. In addition, the Pack are on a 4-1 ATS run at the Metrodome, the underdog is 15-4 ATS in the last 19 clashes and the visitor has cashed in 10 of the last 13 battles.
# Saints -2.5 (+125) at Falcons: $300 to win $375
New Orleans is working on a 4-0 run against Atlanta, and if you're wondering why, it's Drew Brees. In the four games against the Falcons, Brees hit on 91 of 133 for 1,087 yards, seven touchdowns and only one interception. That should not surprise you since the Breezy one currently leads the NFL with 2,563 air yards, and the offense tops the charts with 403 total yards per game.
# Dolphins -9.0 (-110) vs Seahawks: $150 to win $136
The Dolphins go after their third straight win when they welcome the slumping Seahawks to South Beach.
Miami upended Denver 26-17 as a four-point road pup for its second straight win and cover. The Dolphins allowed just 14 rushing yards and picked off Broncos QB Jay Cutler three times, returning one for a first-quarter TD, and Miami racked up a 13-minute advantage in time of possession. QB Chad Pennington was solid, going 23 of 40 for 281 yards with no TDs and one INT.
Seattle is coming off a 26-7 loss to Philadelphia as a seven-point home underdog, falling for the fourth time in five games. Behind backup QB Seneca Wallace (13 of 29, 169 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), who is still subbing for the injured Matt Hasselbeck, the Seahawks managed just 233 total yards, while allowing 410, and Seattle lost the time-of-possession battle by nearly a full quarter.
Miami is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry, most recently losing 24-17 in 2004 but cashing as a 9½-point road
dog. The visitor is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
# Lions ML (+230) vs Jaguars: $700 to win $1610
Jacksonville is now 1-5 S/U and 0-6 ATS as favorites and they're laying almost a TD on the road here. They've been below average on offense but surprisingly they've been below average vs both the pass & run (combined allowing 5.9 yards/play vs opponents who typically average 5.3). Not good and that includes big plays. But who wants to put their hard earned money on a winless team right? Vegas counts on this and these winless "anti-public" teams are very profitable catching significant points. The question is whether or not we can trust the Lions. What I see is a team that hasn't quit. They've played Minnesota, Houston, Washington, and Chicago tough this past month and had a chance to win all 4. I'll back them in front of the home crowd to further increase our chances of a highly motivated effort. Culpepper is the wildcard but he has Johnson to throw to deep and an improving running game. Culpepper has been throwing strong in practice. But this play is about the team and I expect them to rally around their new veteran QB. Very close to making this a POD but I can't in Culpepper's 1st game back.
# Texans -2.5 (+105) vs Ravens: $1000 to win $1050 (POD)
The Texans opened as a small favorite but are now a small underdog. While I understand that's got a lot to do with Schaub being out, I believe that move is a mistake. Rosenfels
is fully capable. Other than his couple of memorable fumbles, Rosenfels was great in his last start against Indianapolis. Houston receiver Kevin Walter had this to say of Rosenfels:
"He played a great game against Indy, except the last three minutes we didn't execute and we turned the ball over. He played a great game and we know he's capable of playing great games. We're going to rally around him." It should also be noted that Rosenfels was 4-1 as a starter last season. Additionally, note that Rosenfels was 21-for-29 with a pair of touchdowns in relief last week. While the Texans are playing in the comforts of their own stadium, the Ravens are in the middle of a very difficult scheduling spot. This is their second straight road game and fourth in the past five games. Additionally, they've got a date with the defending Super Bowl Champs on deck.
The Texans are 5-2-1 ATS the last eight times they were listed as a home underdog of three points or less. They're also 5-1 SU/ATS the last six times they played a home game with an over/under line in the 38.5 to 42 range. During the same stretch, the Ravens were 0-6 ATS when playing a road game with a total in the same range. Look for the Texans to "rally around Rosenfels" and come away with the victory.
Other Early Leans:
Bills ML (+160) at Patriots
Rams +9.0 (-110) at Jets