might be square...but just dont see New England losing 3 in a row

[kujo214]

hey guys, 1st post up on the forum....

I know its a square play, but I find it hard to believe, especially after how they lost to Baltimore, that the Pats would lose 3 in a row.

looking for a lock strong play(and in my mind this is one)

All input is appreciated.

NE -3.5

[SteelRain]

really like this play as well

i'm bills fan since the 1990s and would love for them to win but I don't see them winning here

i actually see the pats winning by double digits

edit: pretty sure I'm going all in on this play, might even take -5.5 that Pinny is offering

[Big Bear]

good luck with your play and welcome to SBR.

I wouldnt use the word lock around here. Its kind of a forbidden word and some of the tough guys will burry u

[kujo214]

sorry about that

[2daBank]

i gotta really like a team to lay road chalk,,,dont feel that way bout pats really, doubt im on buf tho so gl..

[SportsTerminator]

Spiller is a big part of the Bills offense. Without him their like handicap on offense. Of course the Patriots will win...and yes I believe they will cover.

[kujo214]

am I missing something that vegas knows?....-3.5, -4...that seems too easy for NE to cover.

[2daBank]

am I missing something that vegas knows?....-3.5, -4...that seems too easy for NE to cover.

looks a lot like a whole bunch of home dogs that have "shocked" ppl lately...what have pats done to warrant much respect this season? not looking back just this yr, to me the offense trying to blackball welker because he in contract yr is hurting them or mcdaniel just has him running dif routes for another reason (like he a moron), but eldleman in not welker other than fact they both small and white.. this "improved d" didnt look very improved on sunday night..im not saying i like buf, honestly i havnt even seen bills play this yr (need to watch a replay or 2) but there some questions with pats for me anyways..

[kujo214]

u make good points....I guess im still on the power ranking bandwagon, and after the week the dogs had, I find it hard to believe that week 4 will continue that way.

[p19101]

Bills ML is probably good looking back at last week?

[2daBank]

u make good points....I guess im still on the power ranking bandwagon, and after the week the dogs had, I find it hard to believe that week 4 will continue that way.

week 2 i think every home dog won, so it is hardly a 1 week thing...

[the scab man]

Just a few things to think about before you go "all in" on the pats. Im from Buffalo so I know a little more about the matchup (atleast coming from the Bills side). Bills play very well at home, no one thought they had a chance last year @ home against the pats and not only did they cover but they won outright. Pats defense is not good, at all, their secondary is bad. Bills have allowed only 1 sack this year, if the pats dont get pressure on fitz than it might be a long day for the Pats d. On the reverse side of things, Patriots offensive line has been struggling to say the least, while the Bills d line has been thriving the last 2 weeks. Mario Williams is getting pressure more often and is allowing other linemen like Marc Andersen and Kyle Williams to have an effect on the game as well. Yes Spiller is going to be out, but Jackson is possibly coming back and he is a much more complete RB than Spiller.

Not to mention it's a divisional game where the opponents know each other extremely well. The patriots coming to town is like our regular season superbowl, this game isn't just a regular season game to the bills. I think this is gna be a game where Bills have the better line on both ends of the ball which could mean trouble for the Patriots. Im not saying don't bet the Pats but its just some more information on the game and something to think about

[2daBank]

Just a few things to think about before you go "all in" on the pats. Im from Buffalo so I know a little more about the matchup (atleast coming from the Bills side). Bills play very well at home, no one thought they had a chance last year @ home against the pats and not only did they cover but they won outright. Pats defense is not good, at all, their secondary is bad. Bills have allowed only 1 sack this year, if the pats dont get pressure on fitz than it might be a long day for the Pats d. On the reverse side of things, Patriots offensive line has been struggling to say the least, while the Bills d line has been thriving the last 2 weeks. Mario Williams is getting pressure more often and is allowing other linemen like Marc Andersen and Kyle Williams to have an effect on the game as well. Yes Spiller is going to be out, but Jackson is possibly coming back and he is a much more complete RB than Spiller.

Not to mention it's a divisional game where the opponents know each other extremely well. The patriots coming to town is like our regular season superbowl, this game isn't just a regular season game to the bills. I think this is gna be a game where Bills have the better line on both ends of the ball which could mean trouble for the Patriots. Im not saying don't bet the Pats but its just some more information on the game and something to think about

i was curious how buf pass rush looked, balt clearly struggled getting pressure but buf has far more talent to do the job,, agree pats can still be had threw the air and think johnson have a field day..

[JayLA]

Just a few things to think about before you go "all in" on the pats. Im from Buffalo so I know a little more about the matchup (atleast coming from the Bills side). Bills play very well at home, no one thought they had a chance last year @ home against the pats and not only did they cover but they won outright. Pats defense is not good, at all, their secondary is bad. Bills have allowed only 1 sack this year, if the pats dont get pressure on fitz than it might be a long day for the Pats d. On the reverse side of things, Patriots offensive line has been struggling to say the least, while the Bills d line has been thriving the last 2 weeks. Mario Williams is getting pressure more often and is allowing other linemen like Marc Andersen and Kyle Williams to have an effect on the game as well. Yes Spiller is going to be out, but Jackson is possibly coming back and he is a much more complete RB than Spiller.

Not to mention it's a divisional game where the opponents know each other extremely well. The patriots coming to town is like our regular season superbowl, this game isn't just a regular season game to the bills. I think this is gna be a game where Bills have the better line on both ends of the ball which could mean trouble for the Patriots. Im not saying don't bet the Pats but its just some more information on the game and something to think about

Hmm this sounds about right. How's BUF's secondary?

[ramones951]

They lost two in a row.... why can't they lose 3? I think you are deceiving yourself here. The Pats don't look the same.

[GuinnessDrinka]

2002 was the last time they lost 3 in a row- was 4 in a row

09/29/2002	@ San Diego Chargers	L, 21-14	3-1-0	66,463
10/06/2002	@ Miami Dolphins	L, 26-13	3-2-0	73,369
10/13/2002	Green Bay Packers	L, 28-10	3-3-0	68,436
10/27/2002	Denver Broncos	L, 24-16	3-4-0	68,436
11/03/2002	@ Buffalo Bills	W, 38-7	4-4-0	73,448

[GuinnessDrinka]

pats own the bills - good luck with whatever you choose

Date	Result	Attendance
01/01/2012	New England Patriots 49, Buffalo Bills 21	68,756
09/25/2011	Buffalo Bills 34, New England Patriots 31	68,174
12/26/2010	New England Patriots 34, Buffalo Bills 3	68,281
09/26/2010	New England Patriots 38, Buffalo Bills 30	68,756
12/20/2009	New England Patriots 17, Buffalo Bills 10	70,000
09/14/2009	New England Patriots 25, Buffalo Bills 24	68,756
12/28/2008	New England Patriots 13, Buffalo Bills 0	71,282
11/09/2008	New England Patriots 20, Buffalo Bills 10	68,756
11/18/2007	New England Patriots 56, Buffalo Bills 10	71,338
09/23/2007	New England Patriots 38, Buffalo Bills 7	68,756
10/22/2006	New England Patriots 28, Buffalo Bills 6	72,180
09/10/2006	New England Patriots 19, Buffalo Bills 17	68,756
12/11/2005	New England Patriots 35, Buffalo Bills 7	71,810
10/30/2005	New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 16	68,756
11/14/2004	New England Patriots 29, Buffalo Bills 6	68,756
10/03/2004	New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 17	72,698
12/27/2003	New England Patriots 31, Buffalo Bills 0	68,436
09/07/2003	Buffalo Bills 31, New England Patriots 0	73,262
12/08/2002	New England Patriots 27, Buffalo Bills 17	68,436
11/03/2002	New England Patriots 38, Buffalo Bills 7	73,448
12/16/2001	New England Patriots 12, Buffalo Bills 9, OT	45,527
11/11/2001	New England Patriots 21, Buffalo Bills 11	60,292

[the scab man]

previous meetings going back to 2001 mean absolutely nothing lol, bills are a COMPLETELY different team. You cant even argue that the coach vs coach matchup is the same because Gailey is fairly new as well, there 1-1 against each other (Belichick and Gailey). Looking into past stats I think often blind people, look in 2003, Bills crushed the Patriots 31 nothing. They played each other the second time later that year and did the previous matchup mean Bills were gna win? no, pats ended up crushing them just as bad

[the scab man]

Hmm this sounds about right. How's BUF's secondary?

Bills secondary is def their weak point, Patriots are gna have a huge advantage when it comes to WRs vs DBs imo. So its whether you think Bills D line out battling the Pats O line will outweigh the Pats WRs out working the Bills DBs.

[2daBank]

Bills secondary is def their weak point, Patriots are gna have a huge advantage when it comes to WRs vs DBs imo. So its whether you think Bills D line out battling the Pats O line will outweigh the Pats WRs out working the Bills DBs.

i really dont think pats wr corp is that devastating at the moment, sure they killed balty but brady had all day with no pressure up middle, i mean maybe they evolving as welker was involved at least but like i said they havnt seemed right and ive seen mcdaniel make bad choices of matching up personnel to offenses before.. i guess it comes down to whether we believe buf pass rush is superior to balt or not? or if pats just did very good job up front and got rid of ball quick..

either way i much rather discuss the current matchup than talk about how what pats have done the last 10 years...

[kujo214]

with the Pats next 2 games against denver & seattle....I think they know how important a W against the bills is for their momentum into the rest of the season.

[SavantWorldwide]

I know I'm a "rook" around here, but I would take NE anywhere up to -5....I developed a team evaluation formula that uses 18 different team stats and adjusts ratings for home/away. I tested it against every game from 2003-2011 it went 73% SU and 66% ATS...I went 10-5-1 ATS in wk 3. You can check out my other picks if you want, they're free after all! http://pureprofootballpicks.wordpress.com/

Good luck with your picks!

[2daBank]

with the Pats next 2 games against denver & seattle....I think they know how important a W against the bills is for their momentum into the rest of the season.

im sure they not thrilled with idea of being 1-3,,i will give you that.. i just look at this gm and think take dog or pass but as i mentioned i havnt really had time to see much of buffalo yet so just trying to hear what ppls thoughts are of them.. certainly by no means am i saying pats arnt the play, just me but if i decide i think pats are right side odds are i will pass as i mentioned earlier in thread i gotta really like a team to lay points w them on road and not sure i feel pats that team yet..no doubt i could be lookin at it wrong and pats easy money, ive been wrong many times, just hope i pass on more of the ones i am, lol

[the scab man]

I def agree with u 2dabank, it'll be interesting to c how this line moves through out the week

[2daBank]

I know I'm a "rook" around here, but I would take NE anywhere up to -5....I developed a team evaluation formula that uses 18 different team stats and adjusts ratings for home/away. I tested it against every game from 2003-2011 it went 73% SU and 66% ATS...I went 10-5-1 ATS in wk 3. You can check out my other picks if you want, they're free after all! http://pureprofootballpicks.wordpress.com/

Good luck with your picks!

how awesome that you have it all figured out, if you flipped shit to make it work out whatever percent of time going back 10 yrs im sure you will crush it going forward!! weird thing is you wanna convince ppl to eventually buy your picks which is weird cause if i knew id hit 67% every year i wouldnt bother trying to be a pos tout... i think i hit 11 of the gms ats last week and 10 the week before in espn ats contest, maybe i should start a website and go around posting crap trying to sell ppl pipe dreams! id wish you luck but rather hear at some point you were living under a bridge until one day you walk out in front of a bus, until then try staying out of threads unless you have something to discuss other than yourself...

[SmittyZ28]

Should cash

Bet $100.00 to Win $83.33

09/27/12
Ravens (Baltimore)
-2

20:25 ET

09/30/12
Patriots (NewEngland)
+6

13:05 ET

(-120)

09/30/12
Texans (Houston)
-2

13:05 ET

Took it small like all 10 point teasers this looks awesome, but I just cant see Pats loosing or the Ravens/Texans not covering -2

[kujo214]

updated my parlay...


(as of 9.27.12)
Wager
1. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 205 New England Patriots* -3½ -117 vs Buffalo Bills
2. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 211 San Francisco 49ers/New York Jets* Under 41 -110
3. 9/30/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 220 Arizona Cardinals* -6 -110 vs Miami Dolphins
4. 9/30/2012 4:25 PM NFL Football 227 Washington Redskins/Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 47 -110

[jinxpro13]

what do you guys think of this parlay...could be something to consider putting a couple bucks on to get a nice return from

Wager
1. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 205 New England Patriots* -3½ -117 vs Buffalo Bills
2. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 211 San Francisco 49ers/New York Jets* Under 41 -110
3. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 213 San Diego Chargers* pk +100 vs Kansas City Chiefs
4. 9/30/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 220 Arizona Cardinals* -6 -110 vs Miami Dolphins
5. 9/30/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 222 Denver Broncos* -6½ -110 vs Oakland Raiders

not bad. im the other way on the pats though, aligning with 2dabank. & i hate the chargers with 70% of the public on them this week...

[KidBrahSweetz]

I agree with NE this week. I'm going to buy it down to -3 to be safe

[csknight3]

I like the Pats but would probably buy a few points or just bet on the ML. -3.5 is just begging for NE to only win this by a FG. Also take into account if the replacement refs are still in, they seem to favor the home team because they are affected by the crowd. Good Luck man.

[csknight3]

what do you guys think of this parlay...could be something to consider putting a couple bucks on to get a nice return from

Wager
1. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 205 New England Patriots* -3½ -117 vs Buffalo Bills
2. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 211 San Francisco 49ers/New York Jets* Under 41 -110
3. 9/30/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 213 San Diego Chargers* pk +100 vs Kansas City Chiefs
4. 9/30/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 220 Arizona Cardinals* -6 -110 vs Miami Dolphins
5. 9/30/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 222 Denver Broncos* -6½ -110 vs Oakland Raiders

I like San Diego and the Under pick on the Jets game but just going by my history of parlays that are above 3 teams, at least one of those 5 will most likely lose. I think you should buy some points on the parlay especially on NE -3.5, at least make it 3 or 2.5. As for the Arizona game, the line is too fishy for an undefeated team playing such a team like the Dolphins. As we saw the past two weeks the Dolphins are beginning to mold better and play better as a team under their new QB Tannehill.

This just my opinion but good luck man. Always fun when those kind of parlays do hit.

[a4u2fear]

with the Pats next 2 games against denver & seattle....I think they know how important a W against the bills is for their momentum into the rest of the season.

So a win to go 2-1 vs ravens wasn't important? It's the nfl every frighten game is important, the patriots have lost a step, and it doesn't help that Hernandez is out, it gives defenses one less option to worry about


.vegas knew spiller would most likely miss this game and Jackson was a huge question yet the line came out a suspicious 3.5. From what Vegas is telling me, I'll tease the bills before I tease the pats

[Parligod]

Both Pats D and Bills D are unimpressive. It's going to be a shootout.

[JerseyRobby]

Bet $100.00 to Win $83.33

09/27/12
Ravens (Baltimore)
-2

20:25 ET

09/30/12
Patriots (NewEngland)
+6

13:05 ET

(-120)

09/30/12
Texans (Houston)
-2

13:05 ET

Took it small like all 10 point teasers this looks awesome, but I just cant see Pats loosing or the Ravens/Texans not covering -2

I took the same bet but added the niners at +7

[adila1401]

I agree with you sir, no way Patriots lose here, Spiller is out and Fred Jackson should be limited, that means relying solely on Ryan Fitzpatrick hence taking Pats to win