rsktkr's Risky Picks 2012/13

[rsktkr]

Last season I bought a software package and only tracked it. The software had a winning season hitting 65.6% ATS and 57.2% O/U. It ranks the games in order from 1-16 ATS, SU, and O/U. I analyzed the weekly results and tracked them. I found some very interesting results that would have made me a shit load of money had I bet them (remember I was just tracking the software).

The software doesn't start until week 3. I used Thursday's line from Pregame to track results. The game day lines showed similar results.

For ATS I found that the number 4 game finished up with a 10-6 record. The no. 11 ranked game finished at 10-5. The no. 12 game at 13-2 and the no. 16 game ended up 7-2 for a total of 40-15 for 72.7%.

The O/U did much better. The no. 4 game went 12-4. The no. 5 game went 12-3. the no. 7 game went 5-10 so I faded that pick. The no. 12 game went 13-2 for a total of 47-14 for 77%.

For this weeks picks I'm going with last years results. I don't know if the same trends will prevail again this year so I'm just tracking until I find a pattern emerge. For documenting only. Tread lightly if you decide to tail or fade.

Week Three picks are:

ATS

No. 12 game (11 with game day line) Minnesota + 6.5 WINNER
No. 16 game (16 with game day line) Buffalo -3 WINNER
No. 11 game Kansas City +8 WINNER
No. 4 game (4 with game day line) Detroit -3.5 LOSER

O/U

No.12 N.Eng/Balt. under 48.5
No. 5 (5 game day line) Green Bay/Seattle under 44.5
No. 4 St Louis/Chicago over 42.5 LOSER
No. 7 fade (7f game day line) Kansas City/N.Orleans under 53 WINNER

The additional games (game day line) are:

No. 12 Indy -3 ATS LOSER
No. 12 Atlanta/S.Diego over 47.5 LOSER
No. 4 NY Jets/Miami over 41 WINNER

[rsktkr]

Not too bad for my first post. Both Thur and game day went 5-3 each.

ATS

No. 12 game (11 with game day line) Minnesota + 6.5 WINNER
No. 16 game (16 with game day line) Buffalo -3 WINNER
No. 11 game Kansas City +8 WINNER
No. 4 game (4 with game day line) Detroit -3.5 LOSER

O/U

No.12 N.Eng/Balt. under 48.5 LOSER
No. 5 (5 game day line) Green Bay/Seattle under 44.5 WINNER
No. 4 St Louis/Chicago over 42.5 LOSER
No. 7 fade (7f game day line) Kansas City/N.Orleans under 53 WINNER

The additional games (game day line) are:

No. 12 Indy -3 ATS LOSER
No. 12 Atlanta/S.Diego over 47.5 LOSER
No. 4 NY Jets/Miami over 41 WINNER

I added last weeks results with last years totals and an adjustment was made. The no 4 ATS dropped to 10-7 so it was dropped (at least for now).

Now for this weeks picks.

ATS

Min +4 (4 and 4 with Thurs and gm day lines)
Oak +7 (12 and 12 with Thurs and gm day lines)
N. Orl. +7.5 (11 and 11 with Thurs and gm day lines)

O/U

N. Eng/Buf. UNDER 48.8 (7 fade with gm day line)
Min./Det UNDER 48.5 (7 fade with Thurs. line)
N. Orl./GB UNDER 53 (5 and 5 with Thurs and gm day lines)
Sea./St Lou. OVER 39 (12 with Thurs. line)
Wash/TB OVER 46.5 (4 with Thurs. line)
Cincy/Jax OVER 44.5 (4 with gm day line)

Hopefully this weeks post will be less confusing.

As before tread lightly should you decide to fade or follow.

Good Luck to all and bust them Books!