NFL - Week 3

[LT Profits]

SUNDAY, 9/23
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)


YTD: 6-5, +0.23

[Easy-Rider 66]

Lean toward Cinc getting the 3.5. Especially with the injuries on D for Wash. But do lean AZ +4. Think that line should be about a PK. GL.

[LT Profits]

Thursday Addition

THURSDAY, 9/20
Giants / Panthers UNDER 51.5 -110 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/23
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

2 Sunday Additions

THURSDAY, 9/20
Giants / Panthers UNDER 51.5 -110 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/23
Cowboys -6.5 -123 (Heritage)
Lions -3 -120 (Rebate Wager)
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)

[Seto]

would you take

cowboys-6.5 -128
cowboys-7 -110
neither



thanks

[fergie's balls]

LT that Giant under is 51 at 5Dimes right now, i like the under also, was going to wait until Thursday afternoon, agree should be 51.5 then? 51 is key.

[thebestthereis]

Eagles for certain. Play what u want to win.

[PRIMO99]

L.T. PRIMO HERE,

2-0 ON CONTRARIAN BLUEJAY GAMES, YA U REMEMBER
AND WINNER OF MY FIRST 5 STAR SPECIAL IN 3 YEARS IN SF LAST WEEK,
P.S. THERE WILL BE NO MORE 5 STAR SPECIALS, UNLESS INCLEMENT WEATHER IS INVOLVED THEY COME EVERY FEW YEARS IN THE NFL,

THE LIONS, ARE A FADE,

TENNESSEE IS THE PLAY, IF U DONT LIKE TENNESSEE THAN PASS


REMEMBER PRIMO TOLD YOU AGAIN, ALL L.T. TAILERS, DO NOT TAKE DETROIT,
IM NOT VOUCHING FOR TENNESSEE, BUT THE LIONS IN THIS SPOT, ARE A TECHNICAL AND MATHAMATICAL NEG. ExPlay, the lions are grossly overrated,

THANK PRIMO LATER....

PRIMO 99 OR 911, IS A PROFESSIONAL SPORTS WAGERER, MIDDLER AND PROP SPECIALIST, WHO'S experience, INTEL, EXTERNAL SOURCES AND CONNECTIONS GO UNPARALLED,
pri·mo(prm)n. pl. pri·mi (-m) also pri·mos (-mz) MusicThe principal part in a duet or ensemble composition.

adj.1. First.
2. Slanga. Exceptionally good of its kind; first-class.
b. Highly or most valuable.




PRIMO OUT

[LT Profits]

would you take

cowboys-6.5 -128
cowboys-7 -110
neither



thanks

Slight edge to -7 -110, which is roughly -6.5 -124.1

[Seto]

Slight edge to -7 -110, which is roughly -6.5 -124.1

ok thanks

the book that has -6.5 -128 also has -7 -113 so i figured as much (pinnacle)

[fitguy67]

Slight edge to -7 -110, which is roughly -6.5 -124.1

LT or other room-regulars, can you hook me up with a good explanation of these sorts of calculations...for how changes in the "spread"/"total" number of a given line should reflect in the odds (with the "value" of the play unchanged).

I know there are calculators online i can use, but i'd like to learn how to do it myself if need be...but i realy want to know exactly what the calculator is doing...just the way i am.

_____________

for example, Earlier today i noticed on your MIN/CLE, u9.5 play, the following at Pinny...

A. u9.5, -141
B. u9, -113

this puzzled me, and i thot' it must be out of whack, cuz 9.5 is just 5%-ish "better" than 9....but the payout implied by -141 ($70.92 per $100 risked) is a whopping 20%-ish worse (than the $88.50 implied by the -113)...

if my approach is correct...the equal-valued counterpart of u9.5, -141 would be u9, -133.95(corresponding to a new payout of 74.65, which is 5.26% "better" than the old 70.92 implied by the old -141...exactly offsetting the degree to which the new total "9" is "worse" than the old 9.5)

going the other way, starting with u9, -113...i'd calculate the equal-valued counterpart for the "5.55% better" total u9.5 would carry a new "5.55% worse" payout of 83.58{versus the 88.49 that applies to -113**...equivalent to u9.5 at -119.65
_______________
Are the results given by my intuitive method correct?

If not...please guide me to some source that explains...

given a line with a "number"(spread or total) and a "price" (aka. odds)...how do we calculate MANUALLY an "equal-valued" price to a different number (usually different by just a half-point)

[fitguy67]

Slight edge to -7 -110, which is roughly -6.5 -124.1

I surely am not doing this correctly...cuz using my intuitive "approach" with the above example...

DAL-7,-110 would correspond to -6.5, -118.46 (with a 7.14% worse payout-per-hundred to offset the degree to which the new "6.5" is better than the old "7"...meaning a payout of 84.42 versus the old 90.91...100/84.42 is 118.46/100=-118.46)...

_____________
What i'm doing is clearly NOT CORRECT...so i ask again...

what is the accepted method (and the basic logic behind it) for this sort of calculation?

[RavensFan2k3]

Slight edge to -7 -110, which is roughly -6.5 -124.1

Would you tease the Buccs, or take Dallas?

[fitguy67]

i've just learned that there is no straightforward algebraic method...that books consider the historically-based probabilities of same-lined games winning/losing/pushing and adjust the line according to the changed probabilities (and their need to maintain the same vig "markup")...

best thing to do is to refer to books with a generous menu of different-numbered lines (Pinnacle with the sharpest lines...Bet365 with the widest selection if you need to consider something further away than Pinnacle makes available) and use the %differences that apply to the number-changes you're interested in...

sorry for temporarily hijacking the thread with my OCD-attack

[LT Profits]

i've just learned that there is no straightforward algebraic method...that books consider the historically-based probabilities of same-lined games winning/losing/pushing and adjust the line according to the changed probabilities (and their need to maintain the same vig "markup")...

best thing to do is to refer to books with a generous menu of different-numbered lines (Pinnacle with the sharpest lines...Bet365 with the widest selection if you need to consider something further away than Pinnacle makes available) and use the %differences that apply to the number-changes you're interested in...

sorry for temporarily hijacking the thread with my OCD-attack

Have you tried the half-point calculator here at SBR? It is under handicapping tools.

[fitguy67]

Have you tried the half-point calculator here at SBR? It is under handicapping tools.

i just tried it (heard about it, but never really tried it before, till you just pointed out where to find it)...pretty cool...when i punch in that CLE/MIN,u9.5-->9.0 example, i now see that it comes out reasonably close to what pinny actually had...
_____________

BTW, we had a good discussion of this today at

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1907890-line-math-weenies-check-please.html#post16068956

post #11 deals with the sbr calculator...and post #14 adds a very interesting perspective to the whole idea
____________

anyhow, I never knew how you came up with those figures before...& I'm glad i got curious about this, cuz it resulted in adding a new arrow to my quiver...(thanks to you, and MonkeyFocker and Mathy)

[LT Profits]

i just tried it (heard about it, but never really tried it before, till you just pointed out where to find it)...pretty cool...when i punch in that CLE/MIN,u9.5-->9.0 example, i now see that it comes out reasonably close to what pinny actually had...
_____________

BTW, we had a good discussion of this today at

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1907890-line-math-weenies-check-please.html#post16068956

post #11 deals with the sbr calculator...and post #14 adds a very interesting perspective to the whole idea
____________

anyhow, I never knew how you came up with those figures before...& I'm glad i got curious about this, cuz it resulted in adding a new arrow to my quiver...(thanks to you, and MonkeyFocker and Mathy)

Don't jump for joy TOO high. The calc is fine for totals but it is not entirely accurate for spreads, which is why I said "roughly". The spread calculations don't take the game's total into account.

[LT Profits]

Another Sunday Addition

THURSDAY, 9/20
Giants / Panthers UNDER 51.5 -110 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/23
Cowboys -6.5 -123 (Heritage)
Lions -3 -120 (Rebate Wager)
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Dolphins +3 -115 (Rebate Wager)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)

[fitguy67]

Don't jump for joy TOO high. The calc is fine for totals but it is not entirely accurate for spreads, which is why I said "roughly". The spread calculations don't take the game's total into account.

Gotcha...the two posts i special-mentioned on that thread i linked to above...deal with complications such as this...

[rumnblack]

Good luck.

[LT Profits]

Another Sunday Add

THURSDAY, 9/20
Giants / Panthers UNDER 51.5 -110 (5 Dimes)

SUNDAY, 9/23
Cowboys -6.5 -123 (Heritage)
Lions -3 -120 (Rebate Wager)
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Dolphins +3 -115 (Rebate Wager)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)
Raiders +4 -110 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

Added Prop TONIGHT

THURSDAY, 9/20
Giants / Panthers UNDER 51.5 -110 (5 Dimes)
Giants / Panthers – First Score is NOT a Touchdown +155 (Heritage)

SUNDAY, 9/23
Cowboys -6.5 -123 (Heritage)
Lions -3 -120 (Rebate Wager)
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Dolphins +3 -115 (Rebate Wager)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)
Raiders +4 -110 (Bookmaker)

[ChiLLx]

Why are the Jets only -1 on Pinnacle but -2.5 everywhere else

[LT Profits]

Why are the Jets only -1 on Pinnacle but -2.5 everywhere else

Obviously teaser protection (an indication that Dolphins teased up at books that don't teaser protect is golden )

[gamewinninglv]

[QUOTE=LT Profits;16090680]THURSDAY, 9/20
Giants / Panthers UNDER 51.5 -110 (5 Dimes)
Giants / Panthers – First Score is NOT a Touchdown +155 (Heritage)



Good pick on the under sir.

[LT Profits]

1 More Addition

SUNDAY, 9/23
Cowboys -6.5 -123 (Heritage)
49ers / Vikings UNDER 43 -110 (Bookmaker)
Lions -3 -120 (Rebate Wager)
Bengals +3.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
Dolphins +3 -115 (Rebate Wager)
Jets / Dolphins UNDER 40 -110 (Bookmaker)
Eagles -4 -110 (Bookmaker)
Raiders +4 -110 (Bookmaker)

[Mr Handicapable]

LT,

No Over for Cincy/Washington? I'm trying to get even with one game which I know is stupid but I just don't see how RG3/Red Dalton don't light it up? Both defenses are beat to hell and both the Rams/Browns had people running wide open all game last week. I got it early at 47.5 which means it will be a 16-13 snoozefest

[easyliving]

LT,

No Over for Cincy/Washington? I'm trying to get even with one game which I know is stupid but I just don't see how RG3/Red Dalton don't light it up? Both defenses are beat to hell and both the Rams/Browns had people running wide open all game last week. I got it early at 47.5 which means it will be a 16-13 snoozefest

both defenses are actually pretty solid. staying away from this one.

[ChiLLx]

Obviously teaser protection (an indication that Dolphins teased up at books that don't teaser protect is golden )

Thanks. I grabbed Miami +7 and UNDER 48 in a teaser for a unit (kinda tailing 2 of your plays).

[LT Profits]

LT,

No Over for Cincy/Washington? I'm trying to get even with one game which I know is stupid but I just don't see how RG3/Red Dalton don't light it up? Both defenses are beat to hell and both the Rams/Browns had people running wide open all game last week. I got it early at 47.5 which means it will be a 16-13 snoozefest

That is all incorporated in the number though with the jump to 49.5 (good job on 47.5). I rarely bet Overs that are this close to 50 in the NFL. I do think that the Washington defense is in far worse shape, the Bengals should get practically whatever they want this week. But I also think that the Cincinnati defense will focus on stopping the pass, so unless Alfred Morris runs wild, forcing the Cincinnati D to be more honest, the Skins could be reasonably contained.

[LT Profits]

both defenses are actually pretty solid. staying away from this one.

Redskins will be anything but pretty solid in the next few weeks, and unless one of the backups emerges as a good pass rusher, they could be in trouble for the rest of the year.

[bobbyk1133]

I do think that the Washington defense is in far worse shape

Worse shape than Cincy? They've been atrocious and made Weeden look like a pro-bowler. Orakpo hurts, but the Carriker loss is overrated. They have guys to step in. The interior O-line for Cincy is a problem, too. I think Skins roll in their home-opener. They'll have no answer for RG3 in the red zone.

[LT Profits]

Worse shape than Cincy? They've been atrocious and made Weeden look like a pro-bowler. Orakpo hurts, but the Carriker loss is overrated. They have guys to step in. The interior O-line for Cincy is a problem, too. I think Skins roll in their home-opener. They'll have no answer for RG3 in the red zone.

You only mentioned two guys, Skins will be without like 5 starters. And Skins just made Amendola look like Jerry Rice. Not to mention I got +3.5 and line should close +3 Max.

[bobbyk1133]

You only mentioned two guys, Skins will be without like 5 starters. And Skins just made Amendola look like Jerry Rice. Not to mention I got +3.5 and line should close +3 Max.

Orakpo is the only relevant injured starter. I'm not saying the Skins D are the next coming of the 85 Bears. I'm just pointing out that Cincy D does not resemble the unit we saw last year whatsoever. Perhaps Dunlap helps change that, but I don't think it's enough.

[bulichm]

LT, Am I seriously missing something in the SF/MIN game or what? My take is that MIN will be a DD loser when taking into consideration they pulled one out vs JAC and lost to IND and these two teams are bottom of the the barrel type, and SF looks like the most complete team so far. ANY input will help.