Sorry but one more thing...for the halftime line, input the number on the line of the favored 2nd half team. It may not make a difference but I don't want to mess anybody up.
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isnt the halftime line and halftime spread the same thing. im just trying to understand this and picking the correct sideComment -
yes it has it listed that way. when i delete the halftime line it just says value.Comment -
O/u middle -10 spread middle 6 on night gameComment -
No play at the half. Middle is only 6 for the spread and 10 for the o/u. From what I saw, the spreadsheet had the correct calculations for this as well. Nice work PtS.Comment -
Halftime line is spread.... Halftime spread is O/UComment -
right now i have ravens closing at 3. score ravens 14 pats 20. i put halftime line 3 for the fav and underdog as well as halftime spread. it gave me o/u middle 12 in red. spread middle 3 in red. which way do i goComment -
i got -9.5 middle 3Comment -
so any play for pat game ??? thanksComment -
You know...I realize how wonderful it is to pick just the cream up at the 13 point differential mark and above. But, if the numbers on page one prove near accurate, there is nothing wrong with picking up a 12% differential with a 57% win rate. 57% is nothing to sneeze at. Sports betting pros can make a healthy living off of 57%. And it would pick up more plays.
Any time you have a strong angle, you should try to push as many plays through as possible.
Something to consider at least. BOLComment -
I knew i was going to get attacked on my comment. It is all good. I guess more upset on how this crazy ass week went for me.Comment -
it posted on the last page
-playr101Comment -
is there a play, just started following this threadComment -
I play >10 as my differential..
-playr101Comment -
no playHalftime Score Halftime Line Halftime Spread O/U Middle Spread Middle Favored rav 14 3 24.5 -10 6 Underdog pats 20 Favored Line 3 O/U 48.5 Comment -
Those numbers were for one season, theres no telling how well this will perform long term. So to give yourself the best chance of not going broke I would stick with what appears to have the highest win %, and money management.
I can already see everyone jump on this and after it loses 10 straight most people will be broke and cursing the "system", when it could be a positive scheme if your smart. Remember: THERE IS NO GET RICH QUICK SYSTEM. And say this does work consistently, it will gain so much popularity and everyone will start doing it and books will have to adjust. Its working well this year, so get some bets in while its hot, but no more than a few % of your bankroll and dont chase.Comment -
What is cell D4 used for?Comment -
Underdog spreadComment -
I have started to make preparations for the epic back test of this method that I am undertaking over the next couple of days....
Just had some random thoughts, not sure if anyone cares to weigh in.
When you look at On3's post back on page 1, which lists the 2010 results and the win rate progressively goes up
i.e 13+ results is better than 12+, etc, I also notice that the more selective you get the least number of plays the method generates, i.e there is more plays at 10, then 13 etc, which is to be expected.
I guess why this is somewhat bothersome for us picking "13" out of the pile is we feel that it is safe, but is it really?.....
I guess what I am predicting is that the 63% will eventually start to move back towards to 50% the more I back test this method, how far will be the evidence we gather from the back test, however, fingers are crossed that it doesn't regress to far....
I mean, it's very subjective to say that, for example because the underdogs are beating the favorites huge in the 1st half, why are we are safer at 13+ then 9+, irrespective of the number, how does it affect the outcome of the 2nd half??
I am not saying this to bash the method obviously it has proven very positive, many of us who played today's plays had a very profitable weekend, one that all the touts would love to claim they had!! but I think we need a good analytical and tangible reason to say why the higher the spread differential, the more likely the method is expected generate higher percentage of wins..... Just seems speculative for us to jump and say the higher the number the better......
Perhaps by not being able to understand this reason just displays my lack of ability/knowledge in Sports Handicapping!!!!!
Sorry, it's really late but just a random thought hopefully makes sense at some level, I hope the back test comes back positive!!!
You'll hear from me in a couple of days when it's complete.
Good night
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Hey bro,
I am sure you have it figured it out, but in case your still curious I hope this example helps you out,,,,,
San Francisco (-6.5) v. Minnesota Total Over or Under: 43
- At the half, Minnesota was winning 17-3.
So we look and say cool! we have an entry because Minnesota is whooping their ass, we now need to do two calculations.
So, we look at this from the perspective that San Francisco needs to come back and cover, remember some genius in Vegas picked them to win by 6.5 points at Andy's Sports Book.
So the niners have 3 points, their underdog opponent Vikings have 17 points (omg football is rigged!!!!!.....jk)
In order for the niners to cover and win, their spread now needs to be -20.5 to win. Hold your horses this will make sense in a minute.
If we add 20.5 pts to the niners three points you'll see that it generates 23.5 pts (I am so getting a noble prize for that formula) which if we take 23.5 and subtract 17, it works out for their -6.5 cover.
But, were not quite done. We need to take a look at the actual halftime line posted at Andy's Sports Book which was -6.5 for Niners.
So, we take way those 6.5 points from the -20.5 because the Sportsbook is giving them the -6.5 and we are left with a spread middle 14 (20.5 -6.5 = 14)
We always are wagering that a middle will not happen! in order for us to make that wager, the spread middle must be 13 or higher based on the parameters of our method....
If you look at On3's post way back on page 1 of this thread, we are only taking 13+ call this number whatever you want, spread middle, OJ Simpson, Flava' Flave, Big Money.... the important thing is that if after you do that formula for an underdog team to see if its a valid entry it must be "13" or higher.
As this number in this game was 14, we had an entry and we were fortunate to get a nice win earlier this afternoon.
Good luck!!!!!Comment -
So it looks like the system would shoot out halftime dogs for us that are winning at halftime.
As long as the number is over 13 i have a play.Comment -
im with mbs still trying to understand what is cell D used for. if you put the halftime line on the favored team does it stay the same for the underdog on cell d.Comment -
The 13+ figure was not selected randomly, it was through the recommendation of people that have been using this system for several years. While I am not saying that this is the only profitable figure, it is the one that hits with the most frequency. I dont have a backtest available to reproduce, so I all I have is the word of some friends that I trust. I look forward to the backtest. I would that a 5-7 year backtest is sufficient to extrapolate data from.I have started to make preparations for the epic back test of this method that I am undertaking over the next couple of days....
Just had some random thoughts, not sure if anyone cares to weigh in.
When you look at On3's post back on page 1, which lists the 2010 results and the win rate progressively goes up
i.e 13+ results is better than 12+, etc, I also notice that the more selective you get the least number of plays the method generates, i.e there is more plays at 10, then 13 etc, which is to be expected.
I guess why this is somewhat bothersome for us picking "13" out of the pile is we feel that it is safe, but is it really?.....
I guess what I am predicting is that the 63% will eventually start to move back towards to 50% the more I back test this method, how far will be the evidence we gather from the back test, however, fingers are crossed that it doesn't regress to far....Comment -
No disrespect at all, but I was a little confused with the spreadsheet posted so I made my own, which I feel has all the stuff laid out where you can see how the calculations for the "middle" were made. If someone can teach me how to lock cells, I'll post it up here because I don't want people getting confused as to which cells they should be inputting data into or not.
I remember once someone sent me an excel file with "locked cells." I wasn't able to change any data in certain cells, which made users focus instead on the independent cells that needed to be changed. That way, the formulas wouldn't get all screwy.Comment -
You are correct...it works the same regardless of which cell is filled out I did it this way to have a visual as to who the favored team was for the 2nd half.
Seems some people are having some problems Keep on mind, i created this thing in about 30 mins so didnt put mich time into the asthetics Seemed to work fine for what i needed it to doComment -
Ya it works fine.. thx again
-playr101Comment
