NFL HalfTime Middling System

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by PlayTheSpread

Hey guys, I created a spreadsheet that calculates the middle for you....the o/u and spread cell also turns green or red if it's above or below the middle of 13. PM me if you'd like me to email it to you.

This will be an awesome tool to have, guys I think we can do some sbr points here for this

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 06:13 PM

3-1 for the day so far...on a day with a whole lot of upsets....I'll take it. TY Sandwich, Andy and others for your help.

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by Andy Vix

This will be an awesome tool to have, guys I think we can do some sbr points here for this

Already sent an email...points for sure.

catt0025 · 09-23-12, 06:14 PM

2 more wins with ATL and ARZ... makes it 3-1 on the day.

I would volunteer to post official records and what not, but I haven't followed this religiously until this week.

JakeRyan · 09-23-12, 06:17 PM

Thx

playr101 · 09-23-12, 06:17 PM

Still waiting on that spreadsheet...

-playr101

JakeRyan · 09-23-12, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by PlayTheSpread

Hey guys, I created a spreadsheet that calculates the middle for you....the o/u and spread cell also turns green or red if it's above or below the middle of 13. PM me if you'd like me to email it to you.

Could you PM it to me? Thanks, Play!

catt0025 · 09-23-12, 06:19 PM

I would love to have the spreadsheet as well... my computer won't let me PM for some reason... if you would try and PM it to me or just send me an email with an attachment that would be great. jayjaycat5@yahoo.com Thanks!

bmansell33 · 09-23-12, 06:20 PM

This is great im going to backtest some on my own and see exactly what diffrential has highest win rate

dc34we · 09-23-12, 06:21 PM

Originally posted by PlayTheSpread

Hey guys, I created a spreadsheet that calculates the middle for you....the o/u and spread cell also turns green or red if it's above or below the middle of 13. PM me if you'd like me to email it to you.

Can you PM me please? My first post

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 06:24 PM

Originally posted by playr101

Still waiting on that spreadsheet...

-playr101

Wow...wasn't prepared for the overwhelming responses. My bad. Believe it or not, I'm on a Southwest flight right now. Just pulled out my iPad and saw the PMs. Let me take a leak and I'll open my laptop and send it. Sorry again for the delay.

bmansell33 · 09-23-12, 06:28 PM

Dunno if you seen it if not whenever someone gets it please email to bmansell33@gmail.com will use for backtesting

playr101 · 09-23-12, 06:28 PM

Originally posted by PlayTheSpread

Wow...wasn't prepared for the overwhelming responses. My bad. Believe it or not, I'm on a Southwest flight right now. Just pulled out my iPad and saw the PMs. Let me take a leak and I'll open my laptop and send it. Sorry again for the delay.

LOL... take you time.. just didnt want you to forget me...
thx

-playr101

on3 · 09-23-12, 06:29 PM

it would great to have another play on the night game. thanks for the updates everyone, made it real easy to follow in the thread. BOL for the rest of the season!

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 06:35 PM

Hey guys, first of all lot's of high fives and beer for us! great day

!!!!
I know I am going to preaching to the choir here, but in case there is somebody new to Sports Betting etc that is reading this thread I want to say a couple of things.

1. This "method" has not been back tested with a meaningful sample size as far as I know, I am going to begin doing this tonight and will be updating you all over the next couple of days of the results....

2. If the best case scenario occurs and we get a win rate from the five or so years of back testing I am going to do, similar to the 2010 #s that On3 had posted in page 1 of this thread, it is still not the golden goose, it will require patience and most importantly MONEY MANAGEMENT to be successful.

There is no free-lunch or "lock of the years", you have to be smart with your capital.

Anyway, not to be a downer, this certainly was profitable day, but keep your wits about you and your expectations at ground level because it is still being determined if this is profitable long term.

Great work today everyone!!

jmaldonado · 09-23-12, 06:43 PM

Can I please have the spreadsheet as well? I built one myself but I am not sure that it is correct.

Thanks!

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 06:46 PM

Alrighty...laptop is open. Now, next question....can I attach a spreadsheet to PM's? I've never done this before (that's what she said) so not sure of the best way.

bmansell33 · 09-23-12, 06:48 PM

Just enter it in here as a downloadable attachment or email prob easiest

mbs4 · 09-23-12, 06:50 PM

Originally posted by PlayTheSpread

Alrighty...laptop is open. Now, next question....can I attach a spreadsheet to PM's? I've never done this before (that's what she said) so not sure of the best way.

I think you can attach it to a post in this thread if you don't mind sharing with everyone. I don't know how but I've seen people do it.

bigant78 · 09-23-12, 06:56 PM

email me the spreadsheet.

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by mbs4

I think you can attach it to a post in this thread if you don't mind sharing with everyone. I don't know how but I've seen people do it.

I certainly don't mind but here's my disclaimer....please test it with several games from today. I think it's right but I don't want to f anyone up. If it's not, let me know and I'll correct it. Now, still trying to figure out how to attach it. We're descending now but I promise to get this out tonight.

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 07:06 PM

Sorry guys...have to shut down but I think I know how to do it. Will be attached shortly

Catchn_Picks · 09-23-12, 07:16 PM

You guys with technical skills are awesome.

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 08:05 PM

Here it is.  Again....test it with several games before using.  I think it's right but I want you guys to check it for yourself.  One thing I've noticed is if I delete any inputs, the middle won't calculate.  So, just input new numbers instead of deleting existing ones.  I'll work on it.  If you guys see anything else, let me know.  Sorry for the delat

Attached Files

Line..xlsx (10.9 KB, 260 views)

DustyDiamond · 09-23-12, 08:07 PM

delete

bmansell33 · 09-23-12, 08:09 PM

What did the pats/ravens line close at

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 08:10 PM

By the way...it won't turn green if it's exactly 13. It could be fixed but I didn't do it. Call me lazy. It will be green if above 13 or red if below 13. Hopefully everyone can figure out if it's 13, it's a go. GL

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 08:13 PM

Originally posted by bmansell33

What did the pats/ravens line close at

I believe it was Pats -2.5, o/u 49

PlayTheSpread · 09-23-12, 08:15 PM

One more thing...don't put a minus (-) in front of the favored line. Just put the number. So, if it's Pats -2.5, just put 2.5

catt0025 · 09-23-12, 08:21 PM

I had the line finishing BAL -3

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 08:23 PM

This will save me hours over the next couple of days!
Just downloaded it....

bmansell33 · 09-23-12, 08:23 PM

Me to and 48.5

dlunc3 · 09-23-12, 08:31 PM

is this theory being used based off of one years worth of backtesting?

bmansell33 · 09-23-12, 08:34 PM

Theres multiple people backtesting previous seasons

Andy Vix · 09-23-12, 08:46 PM

Originally posted by dlunc3

is this theory being used based off of one years worth of backtesting?

Dlunc:

on3 has a post where it was very profitable using the 13+ spread differential in 2010 and has some reputable friends that have spoken positively about this method to him. On3 is a reputable poster here so its worth back testing.

I am going to back test and include all results using these parameters (13+) on the last couple of seasons back to 2006 NFL regular season, I will be posting my results in a couple of days. It is also 3-1 this weekend so far....

Obviously our hope is that it shows similar numbers to the 2010 numbers that on3 posted on page 1 after doing the 5 season back test before everyone commits big units.

I should mention that the 2010 Winning Percentages weren't 80% or anything ridiculous, they were low 60s.... even if they end up being in the higher 50s, clearly a profitable method.

So far this season it has been extremely profitable, I believe only 2 losses.