Big 12 Basketball: South will rise
The Big 12 South will rule this season on the hardwood just like it has dominated the Big 12 North so far on the gridiron. Oklahoma and Texas should emerge as the top two squads, with Baylor continuing their amazing turnaround while Kansas rebuilds off an NCAA Championship.
They won’t have quite the same feel as the Red River Rivalry when the two teams meet in Dallas each year at the Cotton Bowl. But when the Texas Longhorns travel to Norman on Jan 12 and the Oklahoma Sooners return the visit to Austin on Feb 21, the two contests could go a long way towards a possible No. 1 seeding in the Big Dance next March.
In other words, to quote the great philosopher Charlie Daniels, “The South’s gonna’ do it again.”
Cutting to the chase, I like Oklahoma (+300 to win Big 12, +3500 to win NCAA) to emerge as the top team from the Big 12 in the NCAA Tournament and for at least five, perhaps six teams from the conference to get into the final 64.
Texas (+250, +1500) is the favorite, and for good reason. While most of the talk centered this summer on the team replacing D.J. Augustin who departed for the NBA, Rick Barnes still returns a lot of talent. It all starts with senior A.J. Abrams out on the wing and off a season averaging over 16 per game. Gary Johnson and Damion James are also going to be expected to deliver big numbers.
But the two keys to this team might be Justin Mason trying to run the offense and big Dexter Pittman who has reportedly slimmed down to a svelte 299 pounds and could be a tremendous force for the ‘Horns.
While Barnes was dealing with questions this summer about how he would replace Augustin, Oklahoma’s Jeff Capel was enjoying the luxury of having his stud return for at least another season. Blake Griffin’s super frosh campaign got derailed last year with a knee injury in mid-January in Lawrence against eventual NCAA champs Kansas. He projects right now as a Top 5 pick in next summer’s NBA draft if he decides to enter, and a huge inside threat that has to stay healthy on this team if they are going to make it deep into the tourney.
Griffin obviously can’t do it on his own, making the play of Austin Johnson and David Godbold huge for this team. With Griffin effectively the only real inside force, this team is going to have to run and be able to hit the longer three-point shot this season. Tony Crocker will be counted on to help the team run, and then there’s freshman Willie Warren who will be expected to develop quickly and prove his worth as one of the Top 10 newcomers in the nation.
Talk about a pretty incredible turnaround for a college basketball program, Baylor (+500, +6000) comes in this year as the third best team in the conference. The Bears have all five of their top scorers returning for this season, led by guard Curtis Jerrells who paced the team with 15.6 per game in ’07-’08. Henry Dugat on the outside and Kevin Rogers inside both averaged over 12 per game during Baylor’s 21-11 run last year.
While Jerrells led the team in points, LaceDarius Dunn provided more points per minute during his freshman season. Averaging 22 minutes per game, nine less than Jerrells, Dunn came in with a 13.6 scoring mark. Back for his sophomore season, head coach Scott Drew will be looking for fewer turnovers from Dunn as well as more points. Drew will also be wishing all season that he could put Ekpe Uhdo into the game. The transfer from Michigan will have to sit out this season and could team with Dunn and Duran Diaz – another transfer from Grambling – to give the Bears a very strong Big 3 going into the 2009-10 season.
Despite losing all of their starters from their title squad last season, Kansas (+650, +2500) remains the class of the Big 12 North. That’s a testament to both the excellence of the Jayhawks’ program as well as the weakness of the Big 12 North overall.
Bill Self and KU are simply going to reload this year with three freshmen out of New Jersey high schools. Tyshawn Taylor and twins Marcus and Markieff Morris will be expected to fill big shoes, with Taylor and Marcus Morris the best bets to provide instant impact on this team. Sherron Collins will have to step up and be a floor leader to help the inexperienced Jayhawks roster get through some of the raw moments that are bound to come early in the season.
Sophomore Cole Aldrich’s development on the inside is crucial as well, and if you’re looking for a feel-good story on this team, then get on the Jordan Juenemann bandwagon. The kid from Hays, Kansas, about 230 mile due west along I-70 from Lawrence, walked on this year after answering a call for an open tryout. The KU website notes that Jueneman, “has a solid work ethic and will provide depth at the guard position,” which is a nice way of saying he’s not expected to play much. But I’m still going to keep an eye on him.
The fifth team that should make the NCAA’s from the Big 12 next March is back in the South Division. Oklahoma State (+800, +10000) has their top three scorers from last season back, led by 6-6 sophomore James Anderson at 13.3 per game in 2007-08. Byron Eaton and Terrel Harris each check in off double-digit averages, with senior Eaton also leading the team in assists. Having his top three scorers back should make coach Travis Ford happy, and it does.
However the Cowboys are a bit raw inside, with the progress of Ibrahima Thomas the biggest factor on how much Okie State improves on their 17-16 season last time around.
Next March 7 is going to be a very big day on the college football schedule as the regular season winds down. Most of the national attention that day will be on big showdowns like UConn at Pitt and Texas and Kansas. And there will be a lot of talk about the Duke-UNC game the following day in Chapel Hill. But a very big game that might get missed on the slate that weekend is the March 7 matchup in College Station, Texas, when Texas A&M hosts Missouri with the winner of that game possibly helping to secure their spot as the sixth team from the Big 12 in the tourney.
The Aggies (+800, +5000) are the favorites on the tote board to be that sixth team under second-year coach Mark Turgeon. Josh Carter is back, as are Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis. Sophomore Nathan Walkup as well as freshman James Blasczyk are names to keep in mind. But playing so many games against Texas, OU, Baylor and Ok State is going to make it very tough for this team to hit that 19-20 win level they may need to get into the NCAA’s unless they put on a show in the Big 12 Tourney heading into Selection Sunday.
Mike Anderson and his Tigers (+1000, +10000) will have an easier schedule than Texas A&M, but will still need to beat one of the better teams from the Big 12 South to make it to the tournament. Leo Lyons closed the ’07-;08 campaign on a strong note and the program has three very good-looking freshmen in Laurence Bowers, a four-time All-State honoree in Tennessee, plus two Missouri All-Staters from a year ago in Marcus Denman and Steve Moore.
Kansas State will be in total rebuild mode this year and should be a non-factor. They will still beat the tar out of Colorado which should check in with the conference’s worst team for 2007-08.
The Big 12 Conference Tournament will take place March 11-14 at the Ford Center in Oklahoma City.