Sweet 16 Thoughts

TPowell · 03-21-12, 11:53 PM

Any opinions?

OUKUSFBOS · 03-21-12, 11:55 PM

No real "opinions" here but just hope you are right about my Jayhawks

No coincidences · 03-21-12, 11:56 PM

Originally posted by TPowell

Would wisconsin only be a 1 point fave over k state? If you think they would be more then you have to bet wisky over cuse. The line is way too high

Syracuse -3.5 is too high? What?

TPowell · 03-21-12, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by OUKUSFBOS

No real "opinions" here but j
ust hope you are right about my Jayhawks

Hows your heart after the purdue game? Really wanted them to hang on because they play good ball but glad they exposed kansas some, great betting chance here

TPowell · 03-21-12, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Syracuse -3.5 is too high? Wh
at?

They were 4.5 or so against k state. Dont you think wisky is a solid 3 better than them?

Jayvegas420 · 03-22-12, 12:00 AM

If K-St had to play the Badgers without Jamar Samuels I doubt they'd even be favoured.

The Orange still have to play Wisconsin without Melo.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:04 AM

Originally posted by Jayvegas420

If K-St had to play the Badgers without Jamar Samuels I doubt they'd even be favoured.

The Orange still have to play Wisconsin without Melo.

They would be a 3 point dog to wiscy with him imo

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

They were 4.5 or so against k state. Dont you think wisky is a solid 3 better than them?

You can't use the transitive property when looking at lines.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:10 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences
;14203717

You can't use the transitive property when looking at lines.

Thats ludacris. Of course you can. They use power ratings to make them.

Jayvegas420 · 03-22-12, 12:15 AM

I believe this can be translated from game to game because although the Cuse played a team without Jamar they also played that team without Fab. This consideration was built into the line, undoubtedly. So logically this would be built into the Badgers/Orange line by the same rationale?

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:17 AM

Wasnt samuels a random thing the night before? I remember betting before it came out

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Thats ludacris. Of course you can. They use power ratings to make them.

I'm still trying to figure out how/why you think Syracuse as a No. 1 seed and 33-2 overall should be a PK vs. a No. 4 seed.

Jayvegas420 · 03-22-12, 12:21 AM

I didnt know till tip
but I thought that the Syracuse line would be much higher vs. KST
So maybe I was the only one who didnt know

OUKUSFBOS · 03-22-12, 12:21 AM

My heart told me the whole game Purdue would win it. Hummel couldn't miss, and the Jayhawks offense was pitiful. Robinson and Taylor better step it up against NC State or it could be tourney over. I would really like Kansas to have a shot to knock off Roy again.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:21 AM

Originally posted by No coincidenc
es;14203781

I'm still trying to figure out how/why you think Syracuse as a No. 1 seed and 33-2 overall should be a PK vs. a No. 4 seed.

Same way an 11 seed was a fave over the 6 seed? Committee rigs this shit seed wise anyway. Slu and memphis who were top 20 teams as 8 and 9 seeds?

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 12:23 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Same way an 11 seed was a fave over the 6 seed? Committee rigs this shit seed wise anyway. Slu and memphis who were top 20 teams as 8 and 9 seeds?

So Syracuse shouldn't have been a No. 1 seed? And Wisconsin should've been higher than a 4? I'm not following.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences;14
203831

So Syracuse shouldn't have been a No. 1 seed? And Wisconsin should've been higher than a 4? I'm not following.

Without fab melo, cuse is a solid 3 seed. Wiscy is also in the same boat

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 12:28 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Without fab melo, cuse is a solid 3 seed. Wiscy is also in the same boat

How do you quantify that, though? Just your opinion that they should drop two full seeds without one player?

Wisconsin's RPI was 23. They were lucky to be a No. 4 seed given their regular season. This is a very average to below-average Wisconsin team under Ryan.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by No coincidence
s;14203865

How do you quantify that, though? Just your opinion that they should drop two full seeds without one player?

Wisconsin's RPI was 23. They were lucky to be a No. 4 seed given their regular season. This is a very average to below-average Wisconsin team under Ryan.

It is? They proved they were as good as any other b10 team in the regular season. You know this by making your power ratings by the ending sagarin ratings from last year and tinkering all season long and preseason by what they bring back and other factors

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 12:36 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

It is? They proved they were as good as any other b10 team in the regular season. You know this by making your power ratings by the ending sagarin ratings from last year and tinkering all season long and preseason by what they bring back and other factors

How? They were swept by Michigan State. They were swept by Iowa. They got pounded at Michigan.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:38 AM

Originally posted by No coincidences

How? They were swept by Michigan State. They were swept by Iowa. They got pounded at Michigan.

Michigan is virtually unbeatable at home. Iowa games were obvious flukes and the msu games were close. At least the 1 i remember. They did beat osu on the road and play them dead even at home

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

Michigan is virtually unbeatable at home. Iowa games were obvious flukes and the msu games were close. At least the 1 i remember. They did beat osu on the road and play them dead even at home

Michigan was good at home no doubt, but Wisconsin got absolutely curb-stomped in that game.

Iowa games were "flukes"? Iowa kicked their heads in at the Kohl Center. That game wasn't even competitive.

They were blown out at MSU. And they had zero chance to win the OSU game at home. I bet them that day and it never really got closer than the final score down the stretch (6 point spread).

This is not a vintage Bo Ryan team.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 12:45 AM

Believe what you want but they have a good ats mark and most places like ken pom have them in the top 10

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 01:02 AM

Anyway, good luck TP. What do you think of Marquette/Florida?

Jayvegas420 · 03-22-12, 01:26 AM

Tpowell's original argument was correct.
Had Syracuse disclosed Melo's academic ineligibility pre selection night (& I'm not sure they didnt know then)
The Orange would have certainly lost their #1 seed & we all know that.

Jonah · 03-22-12, 01:32 AM

How bout Kansas as a 2 seed getting to play in St. Louis? That should have been Mizzou's spot, but as a 1.

Jonah · 03-22-12, 01:36 AM

I think you might be right about Kansas...just because they will have a lot of fans and feel good(in a good way) about getting out of that Purdue game alive...NC state might be feeling good(in a bad way) and just happy to be there...

That being said I really like this NC State games. I like their bigs. Leslie can create his own points. That other guy moves well into passing lanes and is a beast on the boards. Their Point guard is a stud, love how he passes and if the white kid is making three's - watch out.

Truly, I believe NC State can beat almost any team on a given night, but perhaps just not this night.

Jonah · 03-22-12, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by TPowell

These two are from boston and make sense to me.

1. Why is nc state so great now? They beat a sdsu team who played some bad basketball late in the year (fatigue?). They beat gtown who had a good season but it wasnt supposed to be a good gtown team at preseason. They had a lot of young kids and lost a lot of pieces. Nc statw is the same team that got down big to a bad texas team and got drilled at home by indiana. Kansas looked great against the best 2 seed in my recollection in tourny history, detroit. Purdue pushed them but they are expertly coached and have solid upperclassmen. Saying that, i think kansas pounds nc state by 15+ most of the time. This tourny is a freeroll for ncsu anyway.

2. How did baylor and xavier make it this far? Baylor was on the ropes against sdsu but they just didnt have the ability to close. It took one of the best shooting displays in tourny history from heslip to beat a weak colorado team. On the other hand, why did xavier get in? Their early wins arent very good in hindsight. The notre dame game was very tight, but lehigh dominated them until lehigh realized "hey we beat duke, this is a freeroll". Im not sure xavier isnt the better tournament team. Baylor is absolutely dreadful, 6 points is ludacris.

Would wisconsin only be a 1 point fave over k state? If you think they would be more then you have to bet wisky over cuse. The line is way too high

I agree with you here. One of those match-ups that I hate where two teams that you are ready to fade are matched up against each other.

k13 · 03-22-12, 07:44 AM

As much as I'd like to see N.C. State win they have no chance. Kansas/NC regional final is set.

Has there ever been this much underdog support with such a line ever?

Owls · 03-22-12, 08:57 AM

I like Boston's anti-Baylor slant much more than his pro-Kansas slant. I just don't think Kansas is that good, with just 1 lottery pick on their team. They just don't have a good enough coach to be choke proof with just 1 lottery pick. Baylor looked like they could be upset at anytime, very unimpressed with how SD St. and Colorado took it to them and tested them. They don't seem to be much better than Xavier.

TPowell · 03-22-12, 09:12 AM

My only plus with backing x is that holloway is a big time player (and a thug).

Florida and marquette is way too close to call to me. Gun to my head, florida?

Owls · 03-22-12, 09:49 AM

Baylor has a lot of athletes but they don't know how to play basketball. They have a horrible coach. Perry Jones would be a monster for most other programs but somehow he plays so small for his size and often disappears. Tu Holloway is definitely a thug, and a baller, he will have no mercy on the softies on Baylor.

Jayvegas420 · 03-22-12, 02:23 PM

Download the Bonnies Championship game, watch it like you have 25%-35% of your BR on it, then
return to this thread & tell me you want to give Xavier a try!

No coincidences · 03-22-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by Owls

Baylor has a lot of athletes but they don't know how to play basketball. They have a horrible coach. Perry Jones would be a monster for most other programs but somehow he plays so small for his size and often disappears. Tu Holloway is definitely a thug, and a baller, he will have no mercy on the softies on Baylor.

Baylor has the talent to make the Final Four. The fact that they were losing to Colorado midway through the 2H says all you need to know about Drew.