Can't sleep. 1st tip is in less than 5 hours so, not much time to provide in depth explanations.
12:15
Murray St. -5
When you see the line move this much from open you always wonder if Vegas was right & the betting public screwed you outta all the points? In this case I wonder the same thing but I also think Murray St. comes through for the pub.
This is a virtually undefeated team who has the most hype surrounding them going into today. This line opened at 3 so, I would sell the points and pay the extra odds but, still a safe bet to cover the 5. Murray St. plays in 27 overs compared to 9 unders when they are favoured by 7 or less. 26 of those unders are after an ATS loss.
12:40
Kansas St. -5
This is the best & toughest conference in my opinion this year. I think just based of their strength of schedule Kansas rolls over this team who has a lot of in-conference losses to weak teams. A close game with Murray St. earlier in the season bodes well for S.Miss but, this is not enough to convince me that they can remain competitive for 40 mins. today. The win over S. Fla would have been more impressive if S. Florida weren't such a disappointment this year. S. Miss has covered in only one of their last 8 games.
1:40
Davidson +8
You might have to shop around to find the +8 this game opened at or buy a point but I would take all the points I can vs. the Big East Champs.
Besides Charlotte & UMASS, Davidson's early season losses were to ranked (Tournament Teams). Of their 3 conference losses only 2 were to Tournament Teams. I think Davidson is always a threat in the tournament even without Steph! Louisville made a great run but even in a tough conference I wonder if 8 losses in the Big East doesn't need to be examined closer. The Cards have a hard time covering the points when they are favoured by 8 or less, the last time they were able to cover this type of spread was the 1st week of Feb vs. Rutgers.
Here are some Louisvill UNDER stats
2:10
Montana +9
Of all the teams I have lost money on this year, the Badgers rank in the top 5. So this might be a bet based more on my disappointment with Wisconsin that it is a bet on the Grizzlies.
After a loss to Nevada, Montana won all of their next 23 games but one. Losses to North Dakota & San Fran do not reflect well on Montana but wins over Oregon St, Colorado St & long Beach St provide hope for Montana as they go into today's game.
Wisconsin has played in 16 unders in their last 21 games played at neutral site.
2:45
Marquette -6
This line has moved from 5 to 6 since opening. I'll bet it moved to at least 6.5 by tip. I would take Marquette to cover 9.5 today. BYU had a hard time with Iona & an even harder time with Gonzaga & St. Mary's all year. I don't think BYU was able to beat any of the tournament teams they played this year. BYU is 7-23 in thier las 30 games following an ATS win.
The avg. over/under set for BYU this year is close to 150 so, I have to question whether this trend can continue against a Big East team which I feel can play great defense when not at home.
3:10
Syracuse -15.5
I can't believe the hard luck that the Orange have endured since Sunday. Given the worst draw in the toughest stacked region & then Fab Melo. I mean if Syracuse can win two games now they have surpassed my expectations, even though I still have winning the whole thing! (LOL)
Let's be honest, they will either scrape together a 4 or 5 point win over this horrible Ashville team or they will crush them by 21-22-23 or 24. I am betting with my heart here, I have made no secret that I am huge Cuse fan (living so close to the school) & I can't see betting against my team untill the sweet 16 & even then it will be tough to do.
Even without Melo this is a no contest for Syracuse but, today's game will be a good barometer as to how Boeheim will adapt to this huge blow.
4:10
N.M -4
I am going against litterally every on this site. I can't believe how many of you are on the Long Beach Pipe Dream. There is usually one 5 that gets upset in the Tourney but New Mexico is not that team this year. I'm not as sure that they will cover the 4points as I am that they will this game. Yes, it could be close & come down to free throws in the end but the Lobos pull through.
Don't waste your time or money on the 49ers.
4:40
Vandy -5
If Vandy didn't prove they were Tournament-ready when they took care of the Wildcats then you're never gonna be convinced. Harvard is a novelty that will packing their Ivy League bags by 7:00pm tonight. How do wait till you lose your greatest player in 60 years to make the Tourney? You won't be seeing any Linsanity here in this game but there will be a FESTUS FOR THE REST OF US!
6:50
Kentucky -25
Do I really need to type anything here?
7:15
Wichita St. -6
This is not the VCU team we loved last year. Not by a longshot. And even that VCU could only beat Wichita St by a free throw last year. This is a walk in the park for Wichita St. Losses to Seton Hall & BAMA are tell tale signs of how this week is going to go for VCU. I dont have time to look up VCU's RPI but this will be reason enough, I suspect to stay away from them today.
Under is 18-5-1 in Shockers last 24 neutral site games as a favorite.
7:20
Gonzaga -2
O.K. This is my favourite game of the day. I have been this Zaga team all year. They are Canada's team this year & my 1st man crush of the season is Kevin Pangos. When this kid wants to he seems to take over games effortlessly. Sacre has under-performed this year but not taday people. I put the dogs at -2 because I am positive that will be the line by tip off. 1/2 my roll be gong on Gonzaga M/L & the other 1/2 on them to cover 2. (No money managment criticism), thank you. Just say "You're Welcome Jay" & move onto the 9:00 PM games!
9:20
Cyclones +2
This is my longsot pick of the day. I don't know whether Shabazz can pull this team through in the stretch like hes had to in the past. The books know this game needs to be near a pick & I cant believe the public hasn't taken advantage of this since Sunday's open. If everything comes together for the Huskies & Jeremy playes the game of his life Iowa St. could roll over here but, I don't think so. I have the Cyclones actually winning this by 10+.
I could think of a ton of reasons to bet against the Huskies today but, there are a few reasons to take Iowa St.
I think this game will be under for no real great reason other than that both teams need to step up defensivly to play the types of games they need to play if they want to control the pace.
9:45
Indiana M/L
If the Hoosiers can win this game I am afraid that it will be a nail-bitter. Tyler's brother will try to pull up the slack in the next few games but, if McKines plays like he did last game Indiana will not have a hope in hell to win this game. Rahman shouldn't foul out today so, even more trouble for the Hoosiers. I really wanted to jump the New Mexico St Aggies band wagon but, when you see that #4 vs #13 it's really hard to take that #13 ranking in the region seriously.
9:50
Loy-MD +15
If Ohio St loses here it can only help the ORANGE, so I am going with the straight up win for Loyola Maryland.
Yeah right....but I am certainly going to be cheering for the Greyhounds this game.
Lets be honest, OSU has been nothing but a disappointment since the beginning of the season. A steady decline form the #1 ranking & so-so performances from Sullinger to a loss to the Badgers that should have never happened. Please don't wager any cash on this game but, cheer along with me so the MOLO-less Cuse don't have to watch Jared go crazy on them next week!
12:15
Murray St. -5
When you see the line move this much from open you always wonder if Vegas was right & the betting public screwed you outta all the points? In this case I wonder the same thing but I also think Murray St. comes through for the pub.
This is a virtually undefeated team who has the most hype surrounding them going into today. This line opened at 3 so, I would sell the points and pay the extra odds but, still a safe bet to cover the 5. Murray St. plays in 27 overs compared to 9 unders when they are favoured by 7 or less. 26 of those unders are after an ATS loss.
12:40
Kansas St. -5
This is the best & toughest conference in my opinion this year. I think just based of their strength of schedule Kansas rolls over this team who has a lot of in-conference losses to weak teams. A close game with Murray St. earlier in the season bodes well for S.Miss but, this is not enough to convince me that they can remain competitive for 40 mins. today. The win over S. Fla would have been more impressive if S. Florida weren't such a disappointment this year. S. Miss has covered in only one of their last 8 games.
- Over is 10-2 in Golden Eagles last 12 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Golden Eagles last 5 games as an underdog.
- Over is 6-2 in Golden Eagles last 8 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 9-4 in Golden Eagles last 13 Thursday games.
- Over is 5-0 in Wildcats last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Over is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 neutral site games.
- Over is 8-1 in Wildcats last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
- Over is 7-1 in Wildcats last 8 Thursday games.
- Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 overall.
- Over is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 non-conference games.
- Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games following a ATS loss.
- Under is 6-2 in Wildcats last 8 games as a favorite.
1:40
Davidson +8
You might have to shop around to find the +8 this game opened at or buy a point but I would take all the points I can vs. the Big East Champs.
Besides Charlotte & UMASS, Davidson's early season losses were to ranked (Tournament Teams). Of their 3 conference losses only 2 were to Tournament Teams. I think Davidson is always a threat in the tournament even without Steph! Louisville made a great run but even in a tough conference I wonder if 8 losses in the Big East doesn't need to be examined closer. The Cards have a hard time covering the points when they are favoured by 8 or less, the last time they were able to cover this type of spread was the 1st week of Feb vs. Rutgers.
Here are some Louisvill UNDER stats
- Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games as a favorite.
- Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 overall.
- Under is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 Thursday games.
- Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 games following a S.U. win.
- Under is 5-1 in Cardinals last 6 neutral site games.
2:10
Montana +9
Of all the teams I have lost money on this year, the Badgers rank in the top 5. So this might be a bet based more on my disappointment with Wisconsin that it is a bet on the Grizzlies.
After a loss to Nevada, Montana won all of their next 23 games but one. Losses to North Dakota & San Fran do not reflect well on Montana but wins over Oregon St, Colorado St & long Beach St provide hope for Montana as they go into today's game.
Wisconsin has played in 16 unders in their last 21 games played at neutral site.
2:45
Marquette -6
This line has moved from 5 to 6 since opening. I'll bet it moved to at least 6.5 by tip. I would take Marquette to cover 9.5 today. BYU had a hard time with Iona & an even harder time with Gonzaga & St. Mary's all year. I don't think BYU was able to beat any of the tournament teams they played this year. BYU is 7-23 in thier las 30 games following an ATS win.
The avg. over/under set for BYU this year is close to 150 so, I have to question whether this trend can continue against a Big East team which I feel can play great defense when not at home.
- Under is 6-0 in Cougars last 6 overall.
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 games following a S.U. win.
3:10
Syracuse -15.5
I can't believe the hard luck that the Orange have endured since Sunday. Given the worst draw in the toughest stacked region & then Fab Melo. I mean if Syracuse can win two games now they have surpassed my expectations, even though I still have winning the whole thing! (LOL)
Let's be honest, they will either scrape together a 4 or 5 point win over this horrible Ashville team or they will crush them by 21-22-23 or 24. I am betting with my heart here, I have made no secret that I am huge Cuse fan (living so close to the school) & I can't see betting against my team untill the sweet 16 & even then it will be tough to do.
- Orange are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
- Orange are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games.
- Orange are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Even without Melo this is a no contest for Syracuse but, today's game will be a good barometer as to how Boeheim will adapt to this huge blow.
4:10
N.M -4
I am going against litterally every on this site. I can't believe how many of you are on the Long Beach Pipe Dream. There is usually one 5 that gets upset in the Tourney but New Mexico is not that team this year. I'm not as sure that they will cover the 4points as I am that they will this game. Yes, it could be close & come down to free throws in the end but the Lobos pull through.
- Lobos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Lobos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
- Lobos are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
- Lobos are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. teams over .600
- Lobos are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall.
- Lobos are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.
- Lobos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. teams over .500
- Lobos are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Don't waste your time or money on the 49ers.
4:40
Vandy -5
If Vandy didn't prove they were Tournament-ready when they took care of the Wildcats then you're never gonna be convinced. Harvard is a novelty that will packing their Ivy League bags by 7:00pm tonight. How do wait till you lose your greatest player in 60 years to make the Tourney? You won't be seeing any Linsanity here in this game but there will be a FESTUS FOR THE REST OF US!
6:50
Kentucky -25
Do I really need to type anything here?
7:15
Wichita St. -6
This is not the VCU team we loved last year. Not by a longshot. And even that VCU could only beat Wichita St by a free throw last year. This is a walk in the park for Wichita St. Losses to Seton Hall & BAMA are tell tale signs of how this week is going to go for VCU. I dont have time to look up VCU's RPI but this will be reason enough, I suspect to stay away from them today.
- Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Shockers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
- Shockers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
- Shockers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Shockers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 neutral site games as a favorite.
- Shockers are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 18-5-1 in Shockers last 24 neutral site games as a favorite.
7:20
Gonzaga -2
O.K. This is my favourite game of the day. I have been this Zaga team all year. They are Canada's team this year & my 1st man crush of the season is Kevin Pangos. When this kid wants to he seems to take over games effortlessly. Sacre has under-performed this year but not taday people. I put the dogs at -2 because I am positive that will be the line by tip off. 1/2 my roll be gong on Gonzaga M/L & the other 1/2 on them to cover 2. (No money managment criticism), thank you. Just say "You're Welcome Jay" & move onto the 9:00 PM games!
9:20
Cyclones +2
This is my longsot pick of the day. I don't know whether Shabazz can pull this team through in the stretch like hes had to in the past. The books know this game needs to be near a pick & I cant believe the public hasn't taken advantage of this since Sunday's open. If everything comes together for the Huskies & Jeremy playes the game of his life Iowa St. could roll over here but, I don't think so. I have the Cyclones actually winning this by 10+.
- Cyclones are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
- Cyclones are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
- Cyclones are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
- Cyclones are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog.
- Cyclones are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
- Cyclones are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
- Cyclones are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
I could think of a ton of reasons to bet against the Huskies today but, there are a few reasons to take Iowa St.
I think this game will be under for no real great reason other than that both teams need to step up defensivly to play the types of games they need to play if they want to control the pace.
9:45
Indiana M/L
If the Hoosiers can win this game I am afraid that it will be a nail-bitter. Tyler's brother will try to pull up the slack in the next few games but, if McKines plays like he did last game Indiana will not have a hope in hell to win this game. Rahman shouldn't foul out today so, even more trouble for the Hoosiers. I really wanted to jump the New Mexico St Aggies band wagon but, when you see that #4 vs #13 it's really hard to take that #13 ranking in the region seriously.
- Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
- Hoosiers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
- Hoosiers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
- Hoosiers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
9:50
Loy-MD +15
If Ohio St loses here it can only help the ORANGE, so I am going with the straight up win for Loyola Maryland.
Yeah right....but I am certainly going to be cheering for the Greyhounds this game.
Lets be honest, OSU has been nothing but a disappointment since the beginning of the season. A steady decline form the #1 ranking & so-so performances from Sullinger to a loss to the Badgers that should have never happened. Please don't wager any cash on this game but, cheer along with me so the MOLO-less Cuse don't have to watch Jared go crazy on them next week!
