Tournament Time

[TPowell]

First I'd like to tell those betting games OTHER than the conference tournament games that you are betting NBA pre-season for the most part. These games just don't matter, in fact most of February is like that for the majority of teams.

Second, I'd like to be honest and state that I have been nearly buried this basketball season which is why I havent posted here as much. I feel like my knowledge of the teams is as good as ever, but have had some pretty awful luck.

Third, I will be around from now until the end of the tournament to state my small plays and opinions on them. Yeah yeah, the buried guys opinions must suck, I'm sure I'll get that but I dont really care at this point.

[TPowell]

PLAY #1: Gardner Webb +5


The teams have played twice, resulting in a 1-1 split and 2 overtimes total. Gardner Webb has beat them on the offensive glass in both games, which is a huge key in my handicapping. The actual rebound total was 40-26 in the second game (14-6 offensive rebounds) and 40-33 in the first game (19-11 offensive rebounds)

Game 1 breakdown: High Point hit 15-28 from THREE POINT RANGE and Gardner Webb hit 8-25. Gardner Webb turned the ball 10 times, compared to High Point's 8. Gardner Webb outrebounded them (see above)

Game 2 breakdown: Similar three point shooting (HP= 4/15 and GW= 5/22). High Point turned the ball 5 more times than Gardner Webb. Gardner Webb crushed them on the boards again, particularly the offensive side.

BREAKDOWN: Gardner Webb is the better rebounding team and the slightly better defensive team. The only way that this spread is covered is if High Point goes off like they did in game 1. Even that game went to overtime however.

[BiffTFinancial]

good to see you, TPowell. anyone who knows anything here knows that you know your hoops.

however, i have to disagree with you first point likening February hoops to NBA pre-season. the NBA is unwatchable crap marketed to 8 year-olds, no doubt (sweet - fireworks! and a D'giorno giveaway to the loudest section! woot!). yes, the NBA pre-season and regular season are pretty much completely meaningless given the inconsistent motivations of players and teams, and the game bears only a slight resemblance to basketball as a sport. how can you compare college hoops regular season to that? i can't say that motivation is consistent in all games, there certainly are games you could pick out where teams quit or don't give max effort, but if February is meaningless, then surely so is January and any other time period prior to conference tournaments. sorry, man, i simply cannot agree. i can think of a dozen games i've watched in the past week where the kids on both teams were giving max effort and killing themselves trying to win (a pretty high percentage relative to games i watched in which one team mailed it in). however, i wish you the best of luck with your thread and your picks through the rest of the season. i surely will be interested in your thoughts.

[nate turner]

good luck

any other things you look at when handicapping for the tourny,other than what was stated

[Big Dave's Picks]

Hey TPowell BOL with your plays tonight and for the rest of the season and conference tournaments. I also have been blasted the last 3-4 weeks so I can symphathize with your discouragement. Anyhow, a new day is a new day and something has to turn around eventaully. Yesterday I finally had a profitable day(the first in a week). Therefore, i will follow your picking and analysis and hope we can both get a win streak going. Looking forward to your picks sir, and thankyou for the hard work. Big Dave

[TPowell]

good to see you, TPowell. anyone who knows anything here knows that you know your hoops.

however, i have to disagree with you first point likening February hoops to NBA pre-season. the NBA is unwatchable crap marketed to 8 year-olds, no doubt (sweet - fireworks! and a D'giorno giveaway to the loudest section! woot!). yes, the NBA pre-season and regular season are pretty much completely meaningless given the inconsistent motivations of players and teams, and the game bears only a slight resemblance to basketball as a sport. how can you compare college hoops regular season to that? i can't say that motivation is consistent in all games, there certainly are games you could pick out where teams quit or don't give max effort, but if February is meaningless, then surely so is January and any other time period prior to conference tournaments. sorry, man, i simply cannot agree. i can think of a dozen games i've watched in the past week where the kids on both teams were giving max effort and killing themselves trying to win (a pretty high percentage relative to games i watched in which one team mailed it in). however, i wish you the best of luck with your thread and your picks through the rest of the season. i surely will be interested in your thoughts.

you make a lot of good points, but by February, most teams know where they fit in the grand scheme of things. Outside of a handful of bubble teams and the 4-5 teams fighting to be a #1 seed, which isn't always that great of a motivator anyway. This is especially true in smaller conference with 1 bid. The top teams are looking forward to the tournament because thats all that matters. January is the start of conference play and is critical for most teams. Looks can be deceiving, they may be physically all there, but mentally is another story IMO. A better example than NBA pre-season would be NFL Weeks 16 and 17

[TPowell]

good luck

any other things you look at when handicapping for the tourny,other than what was stated

half court play beats transition play at most times in March. Look for teams that are efficient in scoring the basketball against set defenses and teams that are solid defensively (preference is a strong man-to-man but zone isn't terrible).

[BiffTFinancial]

half court play beats transition play at most times in March. Look for teams that are efficient in scoring the basketball against set defenses and teams that are solid defensively (preference is a strong man-to-man but zone isn't terrible).

this is why Saint Louis is at the top of my teams to back for March.

[TPowell]

this is why Saint Louis is at the top of my teams to back for March.

very good assessment. Was talking about Majerus for coach of the year not long ago. They have some talent and can be as good in the half court as anybody in the country with the big guy Conklin and the the point guard who missed last year

[HoulihansTX]

How in the Hell did they lose to Rhode Island, especially after having a double digit lead?

[BiffTFinancial]

you make a lot of good points, but by February, most teams know where they fit in the grand scheme of things. Outside of a handful of bubble teams and the 4-5 teams fighting to be a #1 seed, which isn't always that great of a motivator anyway. This is especially true in smaller conference with 1 bid. The top teams are looking forward to the tournament because thats all that matters. January is the start of conference play and is critical for most teams. Looks can be deceiving, they may be physically all there, but mentally is another story IMO. A better example than NBA pre-season would be NFL Weeks 16 and 17

fair enough. i think that your explanation strengthens your point, and agree that NFL W16/W17 is better parallel. certainly, there are some teams with motivation issues and those games are to be avoided. i tend to focus on certain conferences and teams (Big Ten, Colonial, Horizon, MAC, A-10) where conference tourney seeding is huge because of byes, so i am more familiar with their motivations. i would have to agree that teams that are out of it in one-bid conferences in February have potential to mail it in. anyway, BOL to you tonight.

[BiffTFinancial]

very good assessment. Was talking about Majerus for coach of the year not long ago. They have some talent and can be as good in the half court as anybody in the country with the big guy Conklin and the the point guard who missed last year

if i had a vote for coach of the year, i'd have a very hard time deciding between Majerus, Izzo and Brey.

[BiffTFinancial]

How in the Hell did they lose to Rhode Island, especially after having a double digit lead?

great question. i'm guessing that Majerus is running the answer out of them as we speak. only thing i can figure is Xavier is on-deck, but SLU already beat XU in Cincy. no excuse.

[TPowell]

How in the Hell did they lose to Rhode Island, especially after having a double digit lead?

complacency is a good guess. Teams like St Louis have potential to lose to shitty teams but potential to beat the elite teams. I really think St Louis could put a 1 seed out in the second round if they are made an 8 or 9 like what I've saw projected.

[TPowell]

4 for 29 from outside. Unfuckingreal. Can't get a break

[BigDofBA]

Can't get a break? They just got their asses kicked.

Also, you're totally wrong about comparing other games games to pre-season games. Georgetown sure looked like they cared.

[TPowell]

are you mental? A team doesn't cover by 5 points and they shoot 30 ******* 3 pointers and don't even shoot 15% and they got their asses kicked??????? I followed the game, it was a 4-7 point game the entire second half even though nothing that GWU threw up was going in. Gardner Webb was the better team, just shitty decision making to keep shooting the 3 ball and shitty luck that they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn tonight

[No coincidences]

are you mental? A team doesn't cover by 5 points and they shoot 30 ******* 3 pointers and don't even shoot 15% and they got their asses kicked??????? I followed the game, it was a 4-7 point game the entire second half even though nothing that GWU threw up was going in. Gardner Webb was the better team, just shitty decision making to keep shooting the 3 ball and shitty luck that they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn tonight

I like you TP, but GW wasn't within 6 the last 15 minutes of the game if I'm not mistaken. Not sure how you can say GW was the "better team."

[BigDofBA]

are you mental? A team doesn't cover by 5 points and they shoot 30 ******* 3 pointers and don't even shoot 15% and they got their asses kicked??????? I followed the game, it was a 4-7 point game the entire second half even though nothing that GWU threw up was going in. Gardner Webb was the better team, just shitty decision making to keep shooting the 3 ball and shitty luck that they couldn't hit the broad side of a barn tonight

Are you mental?

Webb never had a lead and was down 5-7 points the entire second half.

They ended up losing by double digits when their season was on the line.

It's was a bad pick. It happens. Just admit it.

Don't act like you got unlucky or you barely missed the cover. The better team clearly won and they won decisively.

"They didnt cover by 5."

Come on man. They were down 13 and Webb hit a three at the buzzer to lose by 10. Give me a break.

[TPowell]

they were within 6. The play by play updates on ESPN were 2 points off if you caught on to that (crazy I know). You guys still don't understand that teams shooting a shitty/unreal great percentage is a terrible way to base how good your bet was? When a team shoots 5-32 or whatever they shot and doesn't get ran out of the gym then you made a good bet.

[southpaw74]

Well Webb got out rebounded and fouled twice as much. They never covered the spread the last 3/4 of the game. They lost 1h and 2h. Its not like they led for a bit and lost it. Hate to say it but they were lucky to lose by only 10. Bad play...I lost money on it by tailing

[Aldo Raine]

When a team shoots 5-32 or whatever they shot and doesn't get ran out of the gym then you made a good bet.

You do realize making shots is part of winning, right?

[BigDofBA]

Well Webb got out rebounded and fouled twice as much. They never covered the spread the last 3/4 of the game. They lost 1h and 2h. Its not like they led for a bit and lost it. Hate to say it but they were lucky to lose by only 10. Bad play...I lost money on it by tailing

I think everyone knows it was a bad bet except the OP.

We all make bad bets. It's not a big deal. That being said, it's funny when someone is in denial.

The better team won.

Trying the rationalize a loss when yor team never led and hit a three pointer at the buzzer to lose by 10 instead of 13 is comical.

Better luck next time.

[BigDofBA]

You do realize making shots is part of winning, right?

Exactly. That like me saying my Sooners would have won more games if they had scored more points.

[TPowell]

Of course making shots is a part of winning but you can't control when a team lays an absolute egg from the perimeter. I fail to see how I picked the wrong side when if my team shoots anywhere close to 20% from the perimeter than they would have won the game handily.

[BernardMadoff]

Id like to know which games dont matter.

[BigDofBA]

Of course making shots is a part of winning but you can't control when a team lays an absolute egg from the perimeter. I fail to see how I picked the wrong side when if my team shoots anywhere close to 20% from the perimeter than they would have won the game handily.

HP made 23 FGs. Webb made 22 FGs
It's not like HP was tearing it up. Webb just isn't very good. I'm not sure why you liked them so much to begin with.

You referenced Webb shooting bad last time in your OP. I'm not sure why you're surprised they shot badly again.

You also said Webb would out rebound HP. That didn't happen either.

You're basically saying you would have won your bet, despite your team losing by 10, if your team had scored more points.

LOL. OK, you got really unlucky despite your team never leading in the second half and losing by 10 as a 4 point dog. Get real.

HP was clearly the better team. They we're up about 5-7 the entire game until the end when they were up 13.

I guess I got really unlucky with my OSU bet since they didn't cover by 3 despite being down double digits the entire second half. Had they shot better I would have covered. LOL.

[BigDofBA]

So do none of these games matter tonight?

Was it stupid taking Indiana?

[TPowell]

Nobody from MSU showed up outside of Greene, kind of proves my point doesn't it?

[TPowell]

PLAY #2: Bradley +whatever

The line should be around Drake -5 here so we're sitting on 2.5 points of value right now hoping that the public pounds Drake close to 8.5 or so which would be great. Both of these teams are flawed but Bradley played a pretty good OOC schedule and performed well IMO. I think Bradley is starting to play great basketball and they haven't lost in the first round of the conference tourny in 5+ years which indicates a trend to me. Drake on the other hand, was mopped last year by Bradley in the first round of this tourny. Some may say motivation but I don't think it matters much, this is the be all-end all for these teams anyway.

[tarheelfan72]

It's kinda hard for me to see any basis for complaining about your guys having a bad night when you are betting on teams where the best player on the team was a 2 star athlete coming out of high school. If Kentucky goes 5 for 32 from 3 you might have a gripe. It's never really a surprise to me when a bunch of short white dudes have a bad night at basketball.

[fergie's balls]

TP - i like Bradley also, went to 8 back down to 7.5 i see now, maybe more when public jumps on Taylor Brown injury and "revenge" angle...gotta like that Bradley went 0-20 beyond arc and only lost by 6 earlier this year....like you said been playing well against the better teams....going to jump on 8 hope it goes back.

[southpaw74]

Some good insight...hope it turns out better than the Webb debacle...

[LockPickMaster]

PLAY #2: Bradley +whatever

The line should be around Drake -5 here so we're sitting on 2.5 points of value right now hoping that the public pounds Drake close to 8.5 or so which would be great. Both of these teams are flawed but Bradley played a pretty good OOC schedule and performed well IMO. I think Bradley is starting to play great basketball and they haven't lost in the first round of the conference tourny in 5+ years which indicates a trend to me. Drake on the other hand, was mopped last year by Bradley in the first round of this tourny. Some may say motivation but I don't think it matters much, this is the be all-end all for these teams anyway.

Simons didn't play in their last contest. Simons plays tonight and gets his 15 points and Drake covers the line easy. Unless he doesn't show up tonight.

[TPowell]

its tough determining player value in college basketball but I'm a believer that most teams best player is worth around 1.5-2 points at most so I'm still seeing value with Bradley